"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

High Rain Chance Wednesday Could be in The Making

Sparkling Seas Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy all day with light wind. Generally no rain except the Western to Central Panhandle where some showers and thunder could occur. 

TONIGHT: Complex upper level pattern with  a low at an anomalously low latitude (Eastern Gulf) to cross across parts of South Florida going into Wednesday late in the day. At least one if not two surface reflections of this low pressure area could form around the state, possibly along Southwest Florida coast and another somewhere over the Gulf Stream waters of the east coast south of the Cape. Temperatures aloft are to be quite cold which be a red flag alert for severe weather;  however, overall lapse rates and associated instability at the surface and lack of wind shear looks to result in minimal impact for what could have been a rather 'strong storm event' if a few factors had aligned differently. 

WEDNESDAY: Given the position of the low however, and the jet stream more or less even to the south of most of the state, the overall consensus at this time point to  mainly a rain event (for some areas) with thunder possible 'aloft' (in cloud-cloud to in-cloud lightning mainly).  There might be some small hail briefly of 'below severe size' should a strong storm be able to form but for the most part it looks mainly like   high rain chances beginning along the west coast  spreading to east and working from south to north by late morning. Some showers might be able to evolve before or near day break along the east coast south of the Cape and press ashore as well as a prelude to the day's orchestration. The prevailing wind direction most of the day will be from the ESE-SE- to eventually south whereas upper level steering mainly will be from the southwest for any stronger activity.

THURSDAY: Hard to say exactly when rain chances will end other than it looks like the higher end rain chances will end sometime before midnight (if not much sooner) with lingering activity always possible into mid-day Thursday. This part of the forecast is far less certain. But be advised

The NAM model indicates potential rainfall totals up to between 2-4" in very localized areas especially just in from the east coast from  Brevard County and south, likely due to a slightly warm air advection pattern at low levels coming in off the Gulf Stream waters resulting in some surface based instability. Suspect this is overdone though and might be able to cut those numbers in half. We'll be able to see what comes about though as this is a rather 'tight' situation to evolve  and bears watching for possibly 'flood watch criteria (somewhere)' should   a  locally energized pattern set up. 

Such events are very difficult to foresee in advance as it is and given the very unusual circumstances forthcoming in regard to the overall synoptic upper level pattern that is to evolve coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty with where any specific necessary dynamics will end up being located (  including potential training affects or rain storms repeatedly over any given area) only makes the rainfall total part of the forecast all the more difficult to put a finger on

In regard to temperatures it will mainly be cooler due to rainfall and cloud cover, but no 'cold front' will be blasting through once this system passes. No, temperatures will be much more pleasant Thursday with a cold front still to approach  but more so Friday and Saturday.

FRIDAY: This day looks rain free and rather nice as the low pressure assembly line moves out further east over the Atlantic. A cold front on the approach however for Saturday Night.

SATURDAY: If you want a nicer weekend day in regard to warm air, this would be the day. Highs in the lower to possibly mid 80Fs (inland) as front approaches from the northwest. Some clouds around but no rain is foreseen.

SUNDAY: Front to pass down the state overnight Saturday night. Sunday to be a good 10F degrees cooler for the most part than the day before but dry with light wind. Slowly modifying temperatures going toward Tuesday of next week with no cold blasts yet foreseen even in the far off land of the distant future . Looks like we might be 'good' from 'cold air' at least into the first week of March if not longer (at least in terms of how cold it has got this year, this upcoming cool spell will but take is to around seasonal norms for about two days).

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