"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 1, 2011

Rapid And Continuously Shifting Pattern Change Hourly = Magic 8-Ball 'Cast

IMAGE: Best guess, which will likely require refinement in only an hour or two from now, for today. Most concentrated area of storms or rain shown in red, with thunder in orange and showers (at least) in green. Suspect these areas will need to shrink down a bit (or even a lot) by the time we reach late afternoon.


Huh? Here's the situ' today. Rapid transition from the pattern of the past several days is in place. Not unexpected to eventually occur, but it is happening fairly rapidly in big chunks. Now that the Tropical Storm (Arlene) is fully out of the picture and hot/dry hot pressure is building eastward across the middle of the county, available atmospheric moisture is shrinking from North to South (North Florida), and South to North (South Florida). We now have one narrow band of enhanced moisture across Central Florida which is rapidly shifting east and off shore as well as thinning out quickly off the coast of Brevard County just south of a developing pseudo-stationary front combined with a mid-and upper level trough axis. This latter feature is sinking slowly South from roughly Southern Volusia County toward North of Tampa Bay and is expected to continue this trend into Saturday, at which point it will be located near South Florida by 'storm time' tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, sea breezes are developing from the ENE over coastal North Florida and from the E-SE south of the boundary. The moist moisture throughout is converging ahead of this boundary as stated near of just south of the Beach Line to Tampa, but is thinning out.  South Florida, roughly South of Lake Okeechobee, is holding its own with a respectable amount of moisture, but that too has thinned considerably compared to past days. Otherwise, it looks like a few mid level impulses will ride along the boundary over North Central to eventually Central Florida or South Central later today/tonight.

In the meantime, the west coast sea breeze appears to be getting a head start as of noon in regard to sea -breezes, and for a change the east coast sea breeze has taken shape a bit. Believe the West Coast breeze will be the dominant boundary today, at least until 4-5pm. Convection, per imagery (above) has already begun over far South Florida and might already be worked over for later today despite what model guidance is indicating since it showed not activity in this location as of just an hour ago.

TODAY: Much less coverage of random light-moderate showers, with isolated stronger thunderstorms today mainly east of the spine of the state will approach the east coast from the West-WNW-NW 9 (with time) over Central Florida and from the West-WSW over South Florida.  The east coast sea breeze will likely keep stronger storms from getting east of I-95 north of 528 but can work into US1 , diagonaling closer to the coast from Mibco toward Vero Beach and south toward Ft Pierce/West Palm Beach from 3pm. and beyond. Given the sunnier sky today, Lake Okeechobee breezes will form and could impact any location around the Lake, but favor the east side over Northern Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, and possibly comb St. Lucie County closer to the coast line. All in all, there could be mass accumulation of lingering rainfall toward the east side of the state from Indian River County south to Martin County until late this evening by the time all is said and done, or roughly the South 1/2 of the area outlined in 'red' in the above image.

STORMS TODAY: Storms today will again hold the potential for lightning, possibly more prolific than in days past (other than the few stronger storms that formed). All in all, there might only by 2-4 particularly strong storms today, somewhere from South Brevard County to Broward County...roughly anywhere the 'red' is drawn.  There is a small chance of a funnel cloud or water spout near the coast just off shore from Indian River County and south. Perhaps another area to watch would be near Mosquito Lagoon...but that area seems will 'wash out' too soon for favorable wind conditions before any storm (if there is one) can reach that area.

Think I'll resort to the Ouija Board.

SATURDAY: Again, it is is hard to determine what tomorrow will bring considering the rapid transition currently at play. The best bet for storms/rain tomorrow appears will be over South Central and South Florida, with perhaps some early morning activity close to the coast of Brevard and/or Indian River County through early -mid morning before the sea breeze sets in (which should be early).

SUNDAY: Much quieter most locations with drier air over all locations. Best chance for storms appears will be over South Florida ,south of Lake Okeechobee...mostly favoring SW Florida.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY; Increasing moisture from South to North, possibly reashing the Beachline latitude by Late Wednesday or Thursday. The moisture return will not render the same type of weather conditions that was seen over the state the past few that this time it will all be occurring a bit 'in reverse'. In some ways, it looks like the entire pattern will start to actually 'retrograde', and end up with somewhat of a bit modified pattern by next weekend to that which we just have experienced in regard to wind wind fields, only with less overall total moisture across a vast expanse.

4th of July: Looks good for Fireworks North and East Central, Interior Central and South Florida look more posed for possible problems

SHUTTLE LAUNCH: Not looking so great for a launch as scheduled now. There has continuously been indications that some deep moisture will either be in place or nearly so on this day. It might have to be delayed for no other reason than the clouds

OH GREAT. Just heard thunder, and I have yet to hit the send button. Good grief...there it goes again.

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