"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Risk of Late Day Shower Monday/Tuesday - Strong/Marginally Severe Wednesday

"Portuguese Man-o-War Season Appears to be in Bloom Along the East Coast "

TODAY- MONDAY: Light wind becomes progressively more southerly with time with cool mornings and normal temperatures in the 70Fs range. Slight chance of a very isolated shower or only an increase in late day cloud coverage on Monday. There is a very stealthy dry layer from about 700mb - 500 mb above the ground which will take quite a bit of time to fill in with sufficient moisture.

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary and evolving  "cyclobomb' low pressure system might be to evolve in the Deep South to head Northeast in coming days which will be a headline maker in regard to who will or won't receive snow from the system. 

Further south a cold front will stretch  into the Gulf of Mexico and chances are a warm front of sorts will lift  north by Tuesday afternoon from south to north across Florida putting the state squarely in the 'warm sector' south of the boundary. 

There is a chance on this day (with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs) that a late afternoon to early evening shower or even some thunder might occur this day mainly Brevard County and south and then much further north as well toward the Panhandle region and along I-10 to the east.

WEDNESDAY: Chance as of latest two model runs and as noted in the previous post some time ago of strong to marginally severe storms. 

Worth watching though in case it appears that perhaps even a better chance of severe storms might evolve. 

Chances are all news stations will start to herald the alert mode in the next 48 hours though if the trend in the model output continues on its current trend.

 Unlike the last events of yore, this time it will be occurring (or not occurring if that ends up being the case) daylight hours to near or after sunset. More to tell along those lines come Monday and Tuesday though.

It was on February 22- 23RD 1998 that the worst tornado outbreak in Central Florida history occurred during the overnight hours.

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Wave goodbye to a supposed early 'spring' as temperatures to fall back into winter mode for a few days. 

Not at all unusual this time of year as the sun angle is higher and higher in the sky but the colder and dense area further north refuses to find it's final resting place back around the poles for another 2 1/2 months at least . 

Especially given what appears to be a persist deep upper trough over Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. associated with what is referred to as a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (or -NAO) . El Nino southern jet streak still soaring overhead the Deep South and at times Florida is to continue which helps to up the ante on severe threats. 

(Side Bar: Forecasts indicate El Nino will be long gone by the time June rolls around if not by August).

***Much colder Thursday morning and afternoon and WINDY Thursday, but especially Friday through Saturday mid morning is when the 'coldest' of air will find its way in after a secondary frontal boundary slices through.

Gradual  warm up by SUNDAY and especially next Monday.

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