TODAY: Very little change in reasoning from yesterday's post. As presumed, shower/storm activity was at a minimum yesterday over East Central Florida although some areas were getting the showers, coverage was small. Today might have a better 'coverage' chance as a trailing trough from Arthur now about 75-95 miles East of Melbourne at 5AM works north. Suspect now, that with some daytime heating (with sunrise )..shower activity will begin to activate along unseen boundaries already in place as spokes around Arthur. The better chance these will move onshore or generate showers over land are over the North Half of the state, with another into South Central or South Florida. Winds have already swung around to a westerly component as opposed to North- NNE of yesterday in Arthur's cyclonic (counter -clockwise) circulation. Temperatures aloft are pretty warm for thunder chances, so the best chance of thunder would be over the panhandle where they are forecast to be a bit colder. Otherwise, winds could get quite gusty in the vicinity and in the first portions of any rain shower or rainstorm ('squall') if they can manage to get going.
|'Better Chance' for Squally like Rains in Yellow Today (Wednesday)|
THURSDAY - "The 4Th" : Better chance of thunder on Thursday but more so on The Fourth of July, Friday . Models are showing a trail of vorticity stretching from Arthur to across Central or South Central Florida for several days. This 'energy' trails the whole way back into North Central Mexico (completely across the entire Gulf of Mexico). Colder air aloft could provide the impetus for thunder, but suspect we might have a hard time with it on Thursday since we might not experience an east coast sea breeze.
Possible Strong Storms on the Fourth of July favoring interior to the east side of the state.
WEEKEND: Continued chances of showers and thunder. It appears steering will become light and sea breezes might be slow in starting up each morning. Possible showers/thunder very close to the coasts at time looks possible in the late mornings to early afternoon, then working inland during the day as temperatures aloft remain 'cool' and light winds allow the normal summer geographically induced circulations to come into play which activate thunderstorms and showers in the presence of ample instability and atmospheric moisture.
BEYOND: Next week shows a shift in storm coverage favoring interior toward the west side for several days, but with a small chance of coastal showers popping up, particularly around sunrise to mid morning until the sea breeze kicks in along the east coast.