|Start of the Weekend - Top of the Morning|
TODAY: Slight difference from yesterday before full pattern swing sets up for a solid week (which will result in sig. lowering of rain chances mainly east of I-95); but for today, colder air aloft than past days such as all of last week are in place.
Steering wind is from the WSW-ENE from 7,000 feet and above averaging about 11 kts. Though some storms could initiate along the east coast sea breeze almost anywhere, they will first move west along that boundary due to less vertical development but might 'cling' east for a time. Latest Mesoscale analysis page shows some stronger "Craven-Brooks severe" parameters in place over East Central Florida at this time which should advect well inland if they even last and be in place for sea breeze convergence boundaries later today mainly Central Osceola County into Polk, Southern Lake , West half of Orange and south into South Central Florida as well, or maybe just a bit east of the spine of the state as well.
Some storm debris or if possible even a renegade thunder storm might make it back east toward the coast mainly near the Far North Brevard to Volusia County regions if conditions set up just right, but suspect the stronger storms will be further south and inland due to cloud cover still over a part of Central and North Central Florida at 11AM.
Note: If east coast sea breeze is slower to move inland by some fluke, true thunder with Cloud to Ground lightning could conceivably' reach the east coast north of Melbourne, but would be very unlikely.. Heavy downpours and frequent lighting seems to be the best bet today, if not some 'peas or B.B. hail".
Lingering rainfall over parts of Central or East Central might continue after the gang bang is finished and the strangling storm debris keepson keepin' on toward dark.
BEYOND: Deep south - south east flow to focus all the thunder activities inland and west coast most if not all of next week and toward the weekend. This does not necessarily preclude areas along the immediate coast from all rainfall chances though.
Guidance does show varying degrees of deep layer moisture from 1.7 - 2.2" PWAT (precipitable water) during this time frame, sometimes even at the coast. What that could mean is that regions at the beaches mainly south of I-4 (mainly Brevard and South) could experience pre-sunrise to late morning toward noon time showers before the sea breeze sets up in full swing on any of these days.
In the Far Beyond the GFS hints at perhaps a weak inverted trough - tropical wave-like feature might swing through in the next two weeks..if not two of them which could bump up rain chances all areas. It's starting to look much more like early fallish-tropical season now more than summer right now...that is unless the later runs of the GFS make yet another pattern shift before the end of August...perhaps toward the 26th might be possible