"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Have A Safe and Great Fourth!

(Image: Computer hiccups show a VERY complex weather pattern over the U.S. this morning!! :-)

Very little has changed over the course of the past 24 hours across Central Florida, and it appears that a persistence based forecast is the best solution to use for today's weather guess.

Pretty much everything has evolved as expected it would in yesterday's discussion. A broad trough of low pressure extends east-west across the entire latitudinal breadth of the the Central Florida peninsula, especially at the surface. In the mid-levels is where a trough axis is actually slightly more discernible...and that is basically from about 30 miles north of Tampa eastward toward Titusville, extending from a non-tropical low pressure system well off to the west in the Gulf of Mexico. This mid-level 'axis' will remain almost directly overhead today then push further north toward the panhandle after sunset.

Latest KSC (XMR) sounding and surface observations continue to show light winds from the surface all the way up to nearly 30,000 ft and along the aforementioned axis' coupled with a PWAT again around 2.00" within a slightly unsettled environment.

Two things of note at this hour (8am) are: (1) most of the clouds across the region are of the mid-level nature and there are not as many high clouds. Clearing appears to be in progress over North/Central portions of the area and expect this to continue southward toward noon time especially after the sun gets higher (at least in the short term), (2) a line of thunderstorms which was severe warned came on shore along the West Coast south of Tampa toward Port Charlotte the past hour, although it weakened immediately upon reaching the coast. That area appears to be associated with a weak disturbance/perturbation rotating around the non-tropical low.

TODAY: Much like the past few days we have a soupy air mass but lack a trigger. A lot will be contingent upon just how much clearing we get through the late morning as well as what remains of the the disturbance that triggered the activity off the Florida West Coast during the past hour as it rotated onshore within the very broad cyclonic circulation across the Central Peninsula. Best bet is that this 'disturbance' as it were, will shear apart as it swings further toward the north and east and aligns with the already existent trough axis in place before reaching the immediate area.

But given there is some clearing occurring...and that this should continue without the presence of extensive high cloudiness ...we could get some cumuliform development going in earnest before noon time followed by eventually widespread shower development over the entire region. The problem with even this line of thinking is that the mid-level clouds could redevelop more extensively with help from the sun before the cumulus and resultant rain showers can.

Given that lapse rates are pretty pitiful today within a close to saturated environment, not expecting strong thunderstorm development. What this amounts to is pretty much status quo from yesterday, but if it didn't rain where you were yesterday and it does rain on you today it will be a wetter day...that either means you were lucky yesterday or unlucky today...but that's about the only difference.

As usual at this time of year under these circumstances diurnal activity over the interior with the limited heating of the day will result in the greatest likelihood of rainfall for that area today...but everyone will eventually be privy to getting a shot at the wet stuff. Although rain chances will diminish significantly between 8-9pm (Fireworks time) can't be completely ruled out.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Nearly every model has a different depiction as to what will occur in days ahead....varying from being continued soggy to unusually dry. The NAM develops a very respectable low pressure system over the Bahamas during the next 18-36 hours and lifts it toward the north just about 120 miles off the Florida East coast...which although would be very close by would result in infiltration of dry air down its western flank, whereas the GFS..although it does recognize 'something' going on out there..leaves the questionable area as an open wave that passes right over the state carrying a pool of moisture along our static boundary along with it. I'm more apt to lean toward the GFS solution for the time being and therefore not opting to see any illustrious drying to occur during the coming days. Eventually, somethings got to give...and the fact that the models are so all over the place shows that a surprise is in the offing, but just exactly how it will manifest (either as storminess or pleasantries) is close to impossible to ascertain at this point.

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