"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 12, 2011

Similar to Thursday, Most Thunder Later/Inland North Half

Late Afternoon Thunderstorm Over the Osceola County Prairie. One strike narrowly missed the telecommunications tower located just above the wood fence post.  The cattle were loving these rains with quite a few lightning strikes late afternoon in this uninhabited area. But the strikes were short lived, and a gentle rain followed.

TODAY: The last of the mid-upper levels troughs has pulled out to the East of Florida, with only a weak surface trough remaining near the coast of North and Central Florida.  Meanwhile, the flattening (ballooning) of the high pressure heat wave ridge over Texas has definitely occurred, where temperatures in varies locations failed to reach the century mark in the Southern Plains yesterday for the first time in over a month, and thus what could have been a record stretch of 100-plus readings in some locations in Oklahoma. Rains also entered parts of the drought stricken Big Lone Star state. More will occur there today as well, but it appears they will be biding time with a return to drought like conditions in a day or so.

LOCALLY: ..meaning most of Florida in general. The impact of the flattening pattern other than the rain/heat reduction in some parts of Texas, is that it is pressing into Florida to a small degree toward the Big Bend from the West/WNW. Net result is the Western Panhandle toward the Big Bend should remain dry today.  Morning land breezes on both coasts will transition to sea breezes earliest over Southeast Florida and work north up the coast. Central will receive a light sea breeze remaining close to the coast between 11:30-12:30pm with NE Florida to follow suit in short order. This breeze on the east coast will become full fledged after 3 or 4pm as midlevel winds from the ENE strengthen at reach their peak (while the eastern pressing ridge will have reached it apex of eastern extent..which will be today).

The deepest moisture resides over South Florida this morning, but even still believe they will have a start to their activity similar in timing to yesterday. There might be some clouds in the area in the first part of the day..during which time the worked over atmosphere of yesterday will recover quickly toward noon with storms to follow shortly thereafter. These would send outflows north and westward  toward the Lake with activity working northward with time through early evening. Temperatures along either coast should not be as warm today but inland temperatures should be close to that of yesterday. NE Florida, especially just west of I-95 toward Tallahassee should be the real hot spot today. With high dewpoint temperatures still in place, heat indexes will be around 100F -105F today..with a few locations even higher.

*Side note: My place yesterday reached 99F degrees for about 10 minutes with a heat index of 113F, but that was only for about 10 minutes...and clouds soon followed coupled with the sea breeze around 2pm.

STORMS TODAY: Believe most rains over South Florida will be rain showers (some heavy) with only occasional lightning strikes. This activity will form minus the upward forcing mechanisms necessary to get storms to great height (that is to say, without a sea breeze convergence or much of a lake breeze). There could be one or maybe two fairly active, but short lived storms in South Florida. Also included in some of this activity will be the Florida Keys where very light winds could allow cloud lines to form almost directly over the Island Chain.

Most of the real thunder today will occur from 4pm and beyond toward the north side of Lake Okeechobee as outflows from the south interact with the lake breezes (as the east coast sea breeze should meet the west coast sea breeze east of Tampa and north...additional showers can form near that time along the West coast sea breeze as well as the east coast sea breeze west of I95 and increase in number.  The sea breezes should eventually meet toward the west half of the state after 6-7pm with the bigger activity from Western Orange County toward just east of Tampa Bay to include Polk/Lake County specifically. Other storms could approach Ocala National Forest, and perhaps as far east as Central Osceola County (briefly). The best chance of lingering rain showers appears will be over SW Florida and western portions of North Central.  Temperatures aloft today per forecast RUC soundings will be similar to days no strong winds are anticipated until possibly late today into the early evening.  Storms should dwindle very rapidly after 9pm in those locations where any remaining, unturned over air remains and where a lake and outflow boundary can meet.

SATURDAY: Similar scenario, but with more moisture having worked in to North Florida as well, more of the state will receive some beneficial rainfall other than the immediate coasts. This will need to be more closely scrutinized in the morning. Saturday.  Storms again on Saturday will exhibit strength nature as those of the past few days with little change in upper level temperatures. That has been the theme this year (not unlike last year)...warm air aloft, but not too warm to inhibit storm formation.

SUNDAY/TUESDAY: These days look for more earlier in the day activity to begin toward the west side and south..and spread north and east during the mid afternoon. Perhaps all but the far east coast will have received rain by 4pm...with storms exiting off the east coast toward 4:30-6pm.

TROPICS: Two waves well east in the Atlantic are being monitored. Amazingly, the GFS (maybe not so amazingly) switched gears again and depicted a large land-falling hurricane in South Carolina in about 10 days or so..working right up the east coast to New York City. This is the only model showing anything close to this scenario to occur...with most others showing less development...and leaving that which does develop well out in the Atlantic. However, these waves do bear watching. The GFS has been very insistent on one of two scenarios heading toward the last week of August if not a bit sooner. That being that either : A) A weaker system, perhaps a depression, impact Florida with more concentrated, longer duration rainfall; B) A stronger storm moves toward Florida and curves NW-N either striking the coast or curving out to sea...ala 2010 Storms.  My own thoughts are that this could be a bit of a late season...lasting well into October. Still watching the Gulf of Mexico for Developments in that location eventually heading toward late September...

A Large Bolt of Lightning Had come down just milliseconds before this image was captured dead center, and not far away.... I really need to purchase a lightning grabber device..but that would require a better camera as well. Donations?

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