"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

"Red Sky in Morning...Sailor Take Warning..."

(Images: Sunrise Monday shortly before the remains of an approaching squall line crossed the area. This was quite a sight for the 10 minutes that it lasted)

A storm system over the Southern Plains is taking shape as strong high pressure crosses the SE tier of states early today. The high pressure will be the dominant weather feather for Central Florida through Friday.

TODAY: As anticipated, there was a marked temperature gradient between the coast and areas west of the Banana River this morning. At the time I looked, Melbourne was 40 degrees whereas Cape Canaveral and Patrick AFB were around 52 degrees. For the most part though, the central peninsula was in the low-mid 40s. More full sunshine today with a light NNW-NNE wind all day at around 10mph. It will be a couple of degrees cooler today than 2-4 degrees. As long as one is in the sun and out of the wind it will feel warm and quite dry. Especially between 12pm-2:30pm. The wind will gain a little more of the easterly component by late in the day (hence the NNE wind stated above)...but will swing more NE-ENE over night under continued clear skies.

THURSDAY: Another big temperature contrast to start the day. Perhaps even bigger than this morning. The light easterly wind won't penetrate past the Indian River...but will greatly moderate the temperature for those lucky enough to receive it's benefit along A1A and perhaps into Merritt Island as well. Expecting a low around 56-58 along the coast but still in the mid-40s west of the rivers. The wind on Thursday will predominantly remain easterly at around 10mph throughout the day with essentially clear skies. We may see some patches of stratocumulus clouds at times throughout the day, especially within an hour or two of sunrise then again at sunset as moisture levels in the lower atmosphere increase as a result of the Atlantic breeze coupled with the times when the sun's strength won't be mixing the atmosphere as much. The afternoon will be warmer all areas with the old mercury flirting with the low 70s.

FRIDAY: Quite a mild morning for everyone with a low in the mid 50s except close to 63 along the A1A corridor. More clouds, ahead of what will be a full bore storm system entering the western portions of Dixie Territory, will stream overhead, but we will continue rain free. Inland areas will likely be a bit warmer during peak heating than the coast as a continued onshore wind component blowing across 58 degree near shore Atlantic waters from the east to southeast will keep the immediate coast just a notch below the warm side. And those temperatures coupled with a lot of the suns full power not being realized as a result of increased clouds will make it feel less than stellar but not bad at all. A weak inverted trough will form along the coast to abet in some of the clouds by late in the afternoon...but still no least not until some very isolated showers begin to formulate during the very early morning hours of Saturday....with emphasis on very isolated.

SATURDAY: Here's where things get tricky, so expect some amendments to this portion of the blog in future posts. The wind overnight Friday into Saturday will continue to veer and be almost due south by sunrise of Saturday. The low will be in the low 60s most areas. As was noted yesterday, there were hints that this next system to affect the area seemed to be coming in later than was previously thought on the first post where it was initially brought to light. It seems the trend now is yet even slower than thought yesterday. So we've gone from thinking it would initially be here at sunrise that it now appears it could wait until about sunset. Without the aid of any data/models...experience, particularly from this season, tells me that future model runs will have it slowing down yet even more, but not by much. Weather associated with the front will precede its passing...and a marked change in the weather can be expected between late morning and early afternoon of Saturday. It's also uncertain as to weather this approaching rainfall potential will be in the form of just rain showers or thunderstorms (some of which could be quite strong). In any case, be prepared for a healthy SW-WSW wind on Saturday once the day gets going with a significant change (in the downward of favorable direction) in sky conditions and rain chances going from mid morning to mid afternoon.

It can't go unsaid that further elaboration as to just exactly what type of weather impact we can expect will be required. I'd rather provide information that is closer to definitive rather than 'cry wolf' 3 days before the weather is even supposed to get here. Thus, this will need to be addressed once we are within a reasonable time frame as to be able to make that assertion for this particular system.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY: The front will have cleared the area and will lay somewhat dormant in the 'cold front graveyard' of the Florida Straits. High pressure that always builds in behind a cold front (and normally cools us down significantly) will move rapidly east behind the front so that by Sunday afternoon we'll be back to NE winds with only mild cooling.

As a result, the atmosphere will have little problem recouping (moisture wise) from as it would if we had a prolonged 'land breeze, drier air' event. Hence, coastal clouds by mid-late day Sunday..and maybe even a low topped shower (very light sprinkle) can't be totally discounted from mid-late day Sunday through Tuesday (where we again get to open another exciting chapter in the weather book).

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