"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 31, 2014

Wind Chills Saturday Night with near Record High Minimums During the Day?


TODAY: Frontal boundary located across Central Florida pressing slowly south during the late morning to mid afternoon with much drier air and hence clearing skies in it's wake as the day wears on. 

There is sufficient low to mid level moisture though for some clouds once the sun gets working on the atmosphere, so not expecting an entirely CLEAR day but for perhaps later in the day. Temperatures to hover mainly in the mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F especially South Central/South.

Halloween Cat Scratch Fever

HALLOWEEN NIGHT: Cool and clearing with temperatures lowering from low 70Fs into the lower to mid 60Fs by around 10pm. Otherwise, very pleasant.

It is the next front that is the 'hum-dinger of Daddy Fronts' to come across Florida early Saturday that is going to have something to say though.

SATURDAY: After morning lows occur mainly in the mid 50Fs Saturday morning with lower 60Fs limited to the immediate beachside residents, the next front will glide invisibly across with increasing winds on its heals. Strong low pressure will be forming just off the coast of the Carolina s with a strong anomalous mid-level jet aloft of 110 Kts across North Florida and 10,000 foot level winds across Central Florida of 70 + kts as high pressure dives south through the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin. 

This is an extremely unusual set up any time of year  esp. this time of year. With 2000 foot level winds showing to be around the 35 kts mark, with heating of the day atop strong cold air advection, wouldn't be surprised if we might see some winds gusts near 40 -42mph on Saturday afternoon, but more likely in the 25-38mph range.  

The next factor will be to mix the temperatures in. Afternoon highs as noted the other day might not crack 60F parts of North Central Florida. 60Fs looks for Central parts of Central and south to South Florida..but where to draw the line of 60F and below has been wobbling north/south somewhere across Central. Either way, it's going to be very dry, very windy, and unusually cool for what we've been used to. Not a good day for boating by any means.

SUNDAY: Wind chills overnight?! Last NAM is coming in showing upper 30Fs to just inland of Vero Beach and across almost all of the west side of Orlando toward Ocala, whereas the GFS implies closer to low 40Fs along the 27 Corridor and mid-40Fs elsewhere. 

There could be a huge temperature gradient (difference in temperature) between the IMMEDIATE BEACH side east of A1A Sunday morning from anywhere to the west toward US1 and then I95. West of I95 is guaranteed 40Fs and near US1 looks close to upper 40Fs, with the sand shores east of A1A from the Cape South   perhaps in the lower 50Fs, with a continued breeze but decreasing just a bit and shifting to NNE.

Noting that most of the U.S. along and east of The Mississippi River will be in the 30Fs Sunday morning save parts of Florida and the eastern parts of the Carolinas likely because there will be some cloud cover and perhaps precipitation.

Sunday to 'warm' to the mid to 'maybe' upper 60Fs many areas by near noon to late morning though and thus endeth the cold spell for the beaches from the Cape and south. Overnight lows continue toward upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs as winds might decouple a bit after dark inland, but remain just strong enough to actually never fall much after dark at the beach near the A1A strip mainly.

MONDAY - BEYOND: Beaches to wake up to mid-upper 60Fs but remaining cooler well inland with highs in the mid 70Fs and from there on out the beaches will be in the 70Fs 24/7 through the end of the week. Deeper easterly winds with time could advect and dense low level cloud deck across the east coast and into the interior Tuesday through Friday with some sprinkles perhaps possible at the immediate beaches region mainly with probably no measurable totals if any falls at all. 

Cloud cover if it does manifest though as it looks like it could might actually hold afternoon high temperatures down, but then again, keep over night lows warm (hence in part, round the clocks 70Fs).

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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

DST Ends As Very Cool Air Breezily Ushers October Out


TODAY: Another sunny day with light wind with temperatures similar to yesterday as a cold front moves toward the panhandle.

THURSDAY: Cold front to press down the state slowly during the day, somewhat dragging its heals across north Central to Central. That is the region most likely to receive any rainfall, with perhaps some 'elevated' thunder aloft (mainly near the west coast) with temperatures aloft being cold and some speed shear involved to manifest a lifting mechanism in the absence of much low level instability, likely due in part to increasing cloud coverage. (see graphic below).

Wind might actually become a bit northerly even before the front passes through. Rains could work into Central Florida during the mid afternoon to early evening mostly affecting the immediate east coast north of Vero Beach going into mid evening as the deeper moisture band wears thin going toward South Florida where little to no rain is expected. Could get quite windy in and near rain showers even if there is no thunder or lightning involved in the mix.

FRIDAY: Increasing NW winds as another surge of dry air will move in toward Sunset Halloween night. Temperatures will begin to fall more notably during the course of the mid evening and overnight through the 60Fs and into the upper 50Fs.

SATURDAY: Overall coolest to almost 'cold' compared to how things have been since early April with highs perhaps never breaking 60F along and north of a line from Central Volusia County west toward Brooksville. Further south  temperatures in the lower 60Fs with perhaps an hour or two toward the mid 60Fs (at best as it appears now).  Lows in the lower 50Fs much of the state though much colder North Florida where a range of 40Fs anticipated, and perhaps mid-50Fs along the intracoastal.  This weekend does not look at all 'ideal' for boating or activities along open water ways.

With sunset anticipate temperatures to fall much more quickly with drier air in place but with winds elevated especially along the coast mixing should keep the temperatures up a notch, though the windy conditions won't help much when it comes to 'comforting'.  Winds could be blowing in the 20 plus mph range on Saturday. This day will be well out of the norm from what we've been used to for quite some time.   


SUNDAY: Early one hour on sunrise but continued quite cool for this time of year. Lows in the low 50Fs to upper 40Fs (north) (colder North Florida), but winds to veer on shore by late morning to early afternoon. Sunday afternoon looks to be much warmer in the afternoon than on Saturday but still quite breezy and might begin to see onshore moving shallow stratocumulus clouds coming ashore at some point. The warmest location statewide might be from Canaveral (beachside) to Melbourne Beach (-side) then again near Miami Beach through the Keys.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Wind to become NE-ENE but continued maybe even breezier on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Temperatures round the clock near the East coast in the lower-mid 70Fs, contingent upon cloud cover. Might see some light sprinkles come out of the clouds from time to time, but measurable rainfall totals not really anticipated. Would expect Small Craft Advisories to be in affect.

BEYOND: Winds to decrease slowly but surely with modified Atlantic air to continue. Temperatures mainly ranging through the 70Fs round the clock, only changeable due to periods of cloud coverage. Another front is shown to approach but at this point does not appear to have any or much influence. No other cold spells are foreseen beyond this week end really for quite some time. Might have to contend with more clouds than not though, especially once heating of the day begins with a deeper and steady onshore flow having resumed.

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Friday, October 17, 2014

Potential For "Inclement" Weather Next Week Remains

Early Fall October Storm Over Cape Canaveral, 2014

TODAY- MONDAY: Little change in current conditions as first cold front lies will south of the Florida straits toward the Yucatan. Another frontal boundary which will likely approach Central Florida 'dry' will enter into the picture later tomorrow into Sunday. This will result in a better low level westerly wind flow ahead of it, perhaps offsetting the sea breeze along the east coast on Saturday and/or Sunday. The boundary is forecast to make it about as far south as Central Direct or more toward I4.

It is this boundary that might play a critical part moving into early next week in regard to two factors:

1) The potential for low pressure to form in the Bay of Campeche. and;

2) Another frontal boundary to approach with another upper level system moving across the Central Mississippi River Valley Basin on Monday going into Tuesday. 

Meanwhile, morning lows similar to past mornings and remaining dry with a slight up tick in moisture and perhaps cloud coverage at the low levels Sunday afternoon or morning near the boundary, mainly North and Central Parts. The NAM shows no hesitation in breaking out full on rain showers over Volusia and Brevard, but suspect it's going a little over -board (which is oft the case with the NAM model).. Otherwise, morning lows in the lower - mid 60Fs most areas and highs in the lower-mid 80Fs but dry.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: This is the big question mark period referred to several days ago in the previous post. The chances of a tropically named system seemed to be going by the way side now, but instead a re-occurrence of an old theme from earlier in the summer emerges. An inverted low-mid level trough extending from the far SW Gulf across Central Florida or perhaps South Florida. The critical point to be noticed is the next trough approach early next week. The GFS implies a 'tele-connection' between those two systems (and might add, neither of which fully even exists to begin with). And it is that connection that is critical concerning what happens next. Therefore, given there is still 4 more days until even then...the rest goes without saying.

But the implications so far are that : In doing so the old boundary of Sunday though it might retreat north a bit returns south accompanied by a low stretched out 'troughiness'. noted below. 

There is an explicit demarcation line/boundary between moist and dry air involved here as well, with north Florida so far not being included in this scenario. Might also add per forecast office discussions, the implication is per the Euro-model (ECMWF) that all 'said wet weather' could end up remaining south of the state entirely. For now will ride with the GFS though as a precautionary measure.

IF (now IF) the "worse for wear" evolves we could be seeing large rainfall totals over a two day period somewhere south of I-4 toward South Florida and possible a window of opportunity for isolated severe storms due to directional wind and speed shear in the mid to low levels with divergence aloft from the proximity of the jet stream (rainfall totals over 6").  If it does not, pleasant weather for the most part might well continue. 

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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Chances of storms with strong Gusting Winds Mainly as Noted In More Detail Below
TODAY: It's been 10 days since the last post as all has, for the most part, materialized as supposed. We had our cool down with some record lows set, and now a few record to near record warm morning low temperatures the past mornings or so, but otherwise it's been dry. A cold front approaches though as noted,  and things could change fast today compared to the best week where we were inactive.

Frontal boundary approaching with a few isolated pre-frontal troughs over the Gulf at time, and wondering if perhaps one or more might somehow form over land later. Regardless, the best instability is from near Ormond Beach South to Miami with lower Lifted Condensation levels and deeper overall moisture in that same region. Though I think a Tornado Watch might be issued across the north if there isn't one all ready, they have the wind fields going for them but it will it be enough? Either way, not to discount closer to Central and South Florida. 

The downdraft CAPE is pretty high along the east coast (if the one model I was looking at is correct) so updrafts for storms are going to have to struggle to manifest IF those values are correct, but once any updraft can punch on up the potential for strong and very wet winds does exist with gusts to 'near severe' levels, but only in isolated cases.

Will be watching for the East Coast paralleled winds where some storms might park and pull off a few sly moves especially later today when some boundaries which could interact from earlier shower activity to result in the usual unpredictable 'localized affects' . Further north, high clouds might put further hampers are stronger storms despite that better winds aloft  are up that way aloft. Several tornado warnings and a few reports occurred over the panhandle late yesterday.

TONIGHT WEDNESDAY: Front will ease on in North Central over night and be over Central Florida by daybreak and near a line running from Titusville to Tampa around noon time -3pm time frame. Just exactly how far south it gets will determine where storm chances will exist though at this time today appears to be the day for the stronger storm chances up to this point in time. Rain chance tomorrow through from southern Volusia to North Tampa and south to Miami perhaps as late as afternoon in that northern more area but continuing later further south toward evening   Timing is still in question. After dark though the front should clear all but far South Florida

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Much cooler in the mornings notably on Friday morning with lows running in the 50Fs many areas but toward the low to mid 60Fs east coast with upper 70Fs on Thursday and/or Friday but warming over the weekend. 

Though mornings will continue to be on the cooler side afternoons should be able to get into the low-mid 
80Fs under mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds becoming onshore in the afternoons near the beaches.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: The GFS has been very consistent in forming a very wet period in about 8-10 days from now. It's shown anything from a strong tropical storm over or near the state to but an inverted trough running across the Yucatan to Florida with a pressure pattern that would induce a stiff onshore wind flow of 35-40mph with heavy rains. Guidance has varied from run to turn with all kinds of interesting results with some to nearly absurd but the real low down is that it is too soon to say which if any scenario will come to fruition. As recalled in a previous post, a near hurricane was also shown to occur in the extended time from which had that been true, we'd be already seeing it in the formative stages preparing to head this way. No surprise though, that is not the case at all. 

Though, with all the rains we had last month and some of this month and high water tables, another big prolonged or shorter heavy rainfall period with winds could still be an issue if the situation does arise. Saturated grounds with strong winds could down some trees with power outages since it's been quite some time since there has been a widespread stronger wind event in the area (October 2011 was the last time such occurred).

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Saturday, October 4, 2014

First Front of Season Entering Central, Near Record Lows Possible By Morning

Images from Mesoscale Analysis Page from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
website using the Level Of Free Convection (LFC) Contours to locate front

TODAY: Cold front is located along the boundary between the red and light blue lines across North Central Florida and appears to be even further south than that a bit as of 10AM. This cold front should be near a Cocoa Beach to South Tampa Bay line by around noon time if not a bit sooner. Little chance of rain other than a few spits over Central and maybe a brief shower as was noted near the coast of Canaveral just after sunrise, with the better chance of showers   near and South of Lake Okeechobee due to  onset of better (sunlit) heating with less cloud cover down that way at present time.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday as a result of earlier cloud cover, and full clearing to completion might be totally realized until between 
6 pm - sunset time frame, mainly in the form of remnant lower level clouds skirting by. Sunset could be  a 'novel experience' compared to what we've seen fro the past 4-5 months. 

TONIGHT: The driest of air begins to move in well after dark with outrageously low precipitable water values down toward 1/2" if not less, compared to summer month values of 1.7" - 2.2" inches; this could feel quite dry in relative terms as will the air feel 'quite cool if not too cool' (again, in relative to what we've been accustomed to for months now). 

Should be a great night for opening windows if not a bit too cool to cold depending on the person. Lows could reach near record values most anywhere, as the NWS is mainly eyeing the Daytona Beach Airport region, but other areas could also reach a record low where official readings are not measured from   Southern Lake County and down the west side of Orlando along Route 27 with lows in the lower 50Fs .  Orlando appears to be looking at a 54F - 57F which is close to the record. Immediate east coast beaches from Cape Canaveral and Southward (along A1A) seem to be near 63F but this might be too cold considering the warmth of surrounding waters so still shooting at the classic 67F based on experience since there will be some wind . The less wind, the more likely it would be cooler though.

Front and clearing line positions at 10AM, Saturday Morning

SUNDAY: Quite pleasant but a bit breezy at the beaches and intra-coastal during peak heating hours due to mixing resulting in a northerly wind around 15-20 mph but sunny. Temperatures dropping again after dark to similar values for the most part. I'm thinking the official forecast might be overshooting afternoon highs, but then again, the forecast value of upper 70Fs might be only to last an hour or less..but in average afternoon should be in the 73-76F range  but again warmer waters will add some modification. A nice day to have the windows open.

MONDAY: After another cool start Monday morning the afternoon will warm by about 5 degrees from the previous day.   Not as breezy so nearer to Chamber of Commerce Weather for a classic early fall day wiht images of dancing pumpkins and falling leaves and warly morning sweathers filling the senses. 

TUESDAY-BEYOND: So much for Fall Weather with a return to more normal conditions with highs in the 80Fs and coastal morning lows in the low 70Fs warming to mid-upper 70Fs in the following days. Perhaps showers mainly South Florida working north toward Friday to impact the east coast early morning hours but nothing overly ambitious with near zero thunderstorms except maybe SW Florida late week. So far, not a hint of another cold blast but toward the last week of October though I did read somewhere that the ECMWF model is showing something different next week, but in regard to temperatures at least, I do not know and not much paying heed at this point.

TROPICS: GFS continues to imply something tropical to work north around the 14th -17th of October, but as noted before, this model has done that same several times since May in the extended time frame and look what happened. Nothing. Still worth watching though.  

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Friday, October 3, 2014

Fall's First Clearance Sells for a 'Chilling' Sunday Morning Price - Storms Possible Today

"Out with the Hot, in with the Very Cool" - Free A/C with each purchase!"

TODAY:  Long anticipated first cold front of the fall season is closing ranks on the Florida Peninsula sales associates coming into Saturday afternoon and evening. This front is impacting in varying ways almost the entire country east of the Rocky Mountains as customers are trampling each other for the free freshened air. The parent upper low pressure area is well north in South Central Canada and very wrapped up taking the form of a giant apostrophe with the northern extent already occluding out. The southern extent moving across the South Central Plains and into the Deep South will enter the panhandle later tonight and into Central Florida beginning noon time Saturday.

Meanwhile, with a sea breeze active and WNW winds aloft, atmospheric destabilization in the presence of a less moist atmosphere from that of several days ago will lead to very warm temperatures inland but closer to normal at the beaches. Convergence of boundaries will also be last to come and later than the norm, but where this does occur we could see some storms well-up, if not even being potentially a bit strong. On the other hand, they might only manifest as rain showers; best chances are somewhere in between. The panhandle region appears to have a better chances of storms but again, high clouds could spread east ahead of the line of storms currently to their west which could put  the kabbash on storm strength. 

Storm motion appears will be from the NW-WNW but might vary along the sea breeze boundary especially if they can hold up and roll toward the coast.

See Captions. Again, most activity will be a bit isolated
and exactly 'where' any storms could
develop is sketchy. Best chances though of something stronger appears to be east of I-95 and north of SR 60 if not 50 on the east coast  after 5pm.

SATURDAY: Front to enter Central Florida toward I-4 around noon-time and progress southward, reaching South Florida by or just after dark. The front will be very close to a Cape Canaveral to Sarasota line around 1pm give or take an hour with drier air not far behind. The real input of the dry and cold air should become realized around 8 -9pm Saturday evening across all of Central Florida from a Melbourne west toward Sarasota line... and continue to infiltrate southward over night on NNW winds.

SUNDAY MORNING: GFS has been quite consistent for days now showing Mid 50Fs as far south as far SW Florida and lower 50s in the interior to west coast, with the west side of Orlando for example being in the 52-54F range and then mainly mid - upper 50Fs east toward I-95. Near 60F close to US1 and on the immediate beaches from 63F-67F. Generically over the years, 67F has often been measured on the first burst of fall in Cocoa Beach as a reference, so it will be interesting to see what the verdict is on the price of final sales in that respect for a location such as East Coastal Brevard County. 

The warmest locations Sunday morn will be from Cape Canaveral south to the keys as is typical even in the winter months. Note that morning low prices on this Sunday morning clearance sale could reach between 15- 25F degrees cooler than summer block busters ,  that what we've been accustomed to for 'many moons'; so it will take a frag of adjusting too and feel a bit unusual but will be easy on the walllet. Perfect for Sunday morning dress up codes.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY: NOTE the 'Dip" way up by British Columbia? (That's the next front)

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sunny and quite pleasant but maybe just a bit breezy with a high in the lower 70Fs though could peak out briefly warmer for an hour. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly as the sun gets low within an hour of sunset except at the immediate beaches after midnight.

MONDAY MORNING: Lighter ENE-NE winds should keep the immediate beaches from 'bottoming out' back into the 50Fs but instead level off around midnight if not even warm a few degrees; however, there is a chance that the model is over-guestimating return onshore flow, so would not be surprised if this morning is also a bit 'tart' on the outside thermostat if expecting it to be warmer (say upper 60Fs as opposed to low 60Fs). Otherwise, open the windows if so desired either evening. Free A/C for all!! No coupon necessary.

BEYOND: Tuesday will begin air mass modification day with full return to near normal in the afternoon and beyond. The next front will then be approaching toward week's end but with moisture return beginning potentially as soon as Thursday morning along the east coast in the form of coastal showers. The next front so far will become detached from the 'mother low' shown above and so far is not being indicated to have nearly the impact if barely any temperature wise. 

TROPICS: This front today as mentioned before could become in part a trigger for something tropical in the far Western Caribbean heading into Week two so might bear watching. Otherwise, the front in another way will lift back north as a moisture boundary with better chances of east coast morning showers mostly Friday and Saturday as well working inland in the day light hours..

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