"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 25, 2015

Chance of Showers and Some Thunder Into Mid-Next Week

Sunset Thursday Evening in Cape Canaveral
TODAY: There does exist a chance of thundershowers later today mainly over the interior-late. Other sparsely spread rain showers are also possible (the dominant mode of rain today). Some light rain or cloud cover could approach the immediate east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Sebastian Inlet late today into early this evening - with perhaps a patch of light rain in tow as well.

TOMORROW -SUNDAY: So far atmospheric moisture appears will be oscillating around between a PWAT (Precipitable water) value of 1.75 - 2.1" up through the first parts of next week. Rain shower and thunder chances remain - but thunder is already becoming harder to come by as we have already crossed the Fall Threshold of Celestial Summer and days grow minutely shorter day by day -regardless, it only takes a fraction to make the shift between thunder to 'mere' rain-shower apart from additional atmospheric help..none of which is foreseen in the short term through the weekend. 

Afternoons this weekend will mostly be in the mid-upper 80Fs with a few interior lower 90Fs possible with partly cloudy skies until late day - though overnight to early morning showers are always possible near mainly the east coast. Best rain chances for daylight hours will be inland except perhaps east coast late in the day.

NEXT WEEK: Front might wiggle worm it's way through in a bit of back-door fashion heading toward Thursday with an immediate onshore wind flow to follow. This would mean an overall temperature fall of a few degrees 24/7 but nothing overly 'astounding' by any means. Just that slight tap down on the thermostat , at least for a few days.

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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Active Weather Pattern Possibly Into Saturday - Possible Spin - Ups / Waterspouts Being Watched For

Sunrise Squall - North Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: Unsettled weather pattern to continue, with variations, today through Saturday with some 'twists' to the  local state weather pattern through that time. 

Low pressure, though weak, is located SW of Port Charlotte early this Thursday afternoon. This low is a low level reflection of a broader mid-upper level low pressure zone across the state of Florida. 

In the next 48 hours the surface low though weak is expected to transition into the Western Atlantic somewhere east of Volusia County. In the meantime it is the areas mainly to the east and south of that path that weather could be most unsettled (with a larger focus over South and South Central Florida). 

The Storm Prediction Center is watching for possible brief tornadoes/waterspouts as a result of the overall synoptic (large scale) set-up as a result of this low pressure zone coupled with surface based instability even today, and might hold true tomorrow. 

The areas of interest for 'best chances' of a spin up/ strong wind gust with a storm will shift around with time . As of the latest model runs it appears the areas to watch could shift a bit further north into Friday and even the first part of Saturday to late morning or noon time. 

Areas the Blog is Watching Today and Into Friday - Early Saturday - this areas is not exclusive for today though...still might need to watch as far north as Melbourne, FL later today
 Apart of the 'risk areas'...showers and/or thunderstorms of cloudier than the usual skies will for the most part continue. Winds though at the surface will start to shift as the low pressure begins to move out to the northeast (at least as is forecast now). In doing so, the east coast will 'lose the onshore wind component within the next 36-48 hours as they become more from the south to southwest, and eventually from the west. 

FRIDAY: Again as noted will need to continue to watch what happens with the low pressure at surface and aloft. It is the combination of that factor coupled with instability that will be the deciding factors, but pin[pointing those areas must susceptible to the most active weather is close to impossible to speak of specifically . Using the forecast guidance as a best guess - active weather chances could continue potentially to as late as noon time or so on Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of activity continues if ample moisture remains but the focus will shift further north over time. If ample moisture is no longer available by mid-late Saturday afternoon, things might improve significantly over recent days.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much drier weather in store with lighter wind. NHC is watching for potential tropical cyclone development east of Florida should things development as guidance implies might be the case; however, Florida would be in the clear already.

No very cool spells are foreseen yet, and possibly rain chances will increase heading toward Thursday .

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Monday, September 14, 2015

So Long Summer 2015

Monday Morning in Cape Canaveral
TODAY: As expected per blog post two days ago, the 'cold front' made it's way through Central Florida over night and ended up near the north shores of Lake Okeechobee if not even further south as a mere wind shift line, but further north 'significant drying' occurred from I-4 and north like none we've seen in many many months of yore. Morning lows in the Panhandle were into the lower to mid- 50s and worked to the mid 60Fs further south. 

Across Central today with a slightly more mild temperature at sunrise at some locations the only real difference might be noticed in barely lower dew points from mainly I-4 and north again but right at the beaches the change won't be nearly as discernible. Afternoon highs most areas though will be lower except parts of South Central and South by a few degrees - more so North Florida. Mainly mid-upper 80Fs for the most part - a few 90Fs interior south.

Chance of thunder South Florida today interior and west side with possible showers coming in from MIA to as far north as VRB - slight but close to Nil chance but not totally as far north as Canaveral later today into early evening.

TUESDAY: Boundary now fully washed up might begin to buckle along the east coast as an inverted coastal trough most notable tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Moisture will have fully worked back north as wind becomes more South East to South South east and winds above the surface   almost become more southerly as we approach late Tuesday but more so later this week. Chance of showers still lower but not completely zero either almost any time but mostly before noon along the east coast..more toward the west coast if not in the Gulf itself later Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY; Better chance of showers many areas. Will watch just to see if perhaps some convergence bands of showers begin to form off the North Bahamas along  the "downstream helicity- wind streak factor"  which would impact somewhere between Ft Pierce toward Vero or Sebastian (if not eventually further north); so far guidance doesn't imply it..but rarely does it forecast such small scale potentialities. Colder air aloft with deepening ESE-SE flow could well warrant the chance though showers might be able to work as far north as JAX on Wednesday.

BEYOND: Chances of showers almost any time as noted in previous post. No more cold fronts for a while. On the other hand..with prolonged deeper easterly appears that Thunderstorm Season 2015 is over, at least for the east coast in regard to sea breeze convergence related type activities. for by the time any potential set up related to sea breeze convergence storms arrives..we will be well into later September with shorter days and lower instability during the days..meaning for the most part -other than maybe a few days here or there - summer is over...per the celestial calendar fall is one week away after all.

Red Sky At Night , Sailor Delight - so long storms

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Saturday, September 12, 2015

Rare Chance of Early September Severe Storms Today

Rare Early September Sky Could Be Prelude to Rare Storms This Afternoon - Possibly

TODAY: Odd to be speaking of 'bulk shear in the mid-upper levels' this time of year but indeed such is the case today. Usually such terminology is reserved over Florida for mid-Winter through mid-Spring (in relation to a storm potential) - that combined with anticipated Moderate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) which is small to totally absent in the winter months will both co-exist today in a very moist atmosphere. Additionally, there is the smallest of chances a side shore sea breeze component could manifest from Brevard County and south , perhaps even a bit further north which in the presence of warm ocean temperatures could add a 'bang for the buck' near the east coast - or even off shore for boating interests. 

The net effect is for a chance of 'severe storms' today with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph - apart from said activity gusty winds  could otherwise occur even in fast moving rain showers or near them. 

On the other hand, high level cloudiness and 'not all that cold aloft ' temperatures at 500mb preclude a better certainty of 'severe' type activity. There is a chance of earlier storms going up west side resulting in dense cloud cover across the Interior and East coast which put the squash on severe weather though the RAP and NAM guidance models are both showing some decent vertical velocities (VVs) near the east coast from Brevard south through Indian river counties after 2-3pm.  

 Areas south of Brevard are not under the Bulk Shear components though might have better instability than further north. The 'strong-severe' chance/threat should be working south and east with time into the mid-afternoon. This does not 'guarantee' severe storms everywhere, though at time it does appear that some areas might well experience at least a stronger than the norm storm today.

 A few showers might 'pop' prior to the best chance of heavier rainfall as well south of I-4 into South Florida almost any time from late morning on. Rainfall totals might not be all that large due to faster storm motions.

Though not in the 'red lines' for 'possible severe'..watching blue areas too (blog purposes only)
SUNDAY: Boundary of front to slide into Central or South Central during the day but the upper level kicker-energy will have passed well east of the state and out to sea. There might still be cloud cover to hold down highs into the 80Fs but continued humid as usual. Best chance for storms might be Eastern Portions of South Central and South Florida though a few  showers possible south of I-4 at almost any time.

MONDAY-BEYOND: Onshore flow slowly develops into Tuesday as noted yesterday. Moisture continues. Suspect temperatures along the east coast might vary by less than 10 degrees for several days as ocean temperatures are still in the lower 80Fs for the most part and as a result, 24 hour temperature variations will be minimal.   Shower chances continue ..for almost anytime east coast with thunder more likely interior and western portions of the state.

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Friday, September 11, 2015

Higher Likelihood of Rain/Storms Saturday Many Areas - Not a Beach Day

September 11, 2014 Cape Canaveral
FUTURE-CAST: Shifting 'sands' occurring as a frontal boundary approaches Florida over the weekend. The wind shift line associated with this front appears will make it as far south as Lake Okeechobee by Monday but the moisture associated with the boundary will remain as far north as around I-4 (in general) underneath the 700mb trough which remains north of Central Florida. 

The boundary determined by the wind shift at the surface (ground level) is then to wash out and lift back north going into Tuesday with very little change in temperatures at all and  continued high humidity south of I-4 or a bit north of there. 

This boundary passage though might well make the true 'beginning of the end' of sea breeze convergence type thunderstorm activities for 2015...outside of a few days here and there spread out across the next two weeks (at least for Central and North Florida).

TODAY: Chance of showers and some thunder mainly south of or near SR 528 east side of state and south. The greatest concentration might well be St. Lucie County and South where east coast sea breeze has the greatest inland penetration accompanied by the Lake Okeechobee Shadow affects. 

Chance of showers or even thunder perhaps as far north as Cocoa Beach late today or even early evening - perhaps as late as was the case last night for Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/ Merritt Island zones (surprisingly)  after 10PM last night.

General Guess-Cast for Today (South Central) and Saturday (North half of State)
SATURDAY: Disturbances associated with upper level trough and the surface front to ride mainly over the North Half of the state. There is close agreement in guidance that activity will propagate and move along from west to east beginning early to mid morning from west coast to east coast. The affects of such can already be seen further to the west over the Northern Gulf as of 2pm today. Saturday looks to mostly a cloudy day (except maybe before noon for interior and east coast)..with increasing rain chances, even storms, some possibly on the stronger side.

SUNDAY: With the disturbances having passed, Sunday should be a much more dry day, though not sure about cloud coverage. Lower temperatures over Central/South (mainly in the afternoons) would be a function of cloud coverage and not of cooler air having filtered this far south (which will not be the case along I-10 where it will end up being both drier and cooler). Such affects will be short-lived in any regard, however, as the boundary is absorbed by high pressure passing west to east north of Florida and the remains lift north potetnially as a bit of an inverted trough along the Florida east coast. going into Monday and Tuesday.

FUTURE: Might watch for a 'min-rain event" along the Florida east Coast, especially from Vero Beach and South mid-late week next week or potentially as far north as Daytona. Too soon to say if even that will occur, but the set up is staring to look like there is a potential for one over a 2-3 day period somewhere along the east coast with prevailing and deepening easterly flow and cooler air aloft at times.

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Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Widespread Showers -Storms Possible Today

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday , September 7th
TODAY: Low pressure circulation which two - three days ago was located southwest of Port Charlotte continues to lift north to the Panhandle as shown in the next image. Meanwhile, upper level temperatures are warming a bit with 500mb and 700mb temps forecast to be around -5.5 to -6C/ and 10C respectively. These temperatures are alone not conducive for stronger storms apart from upper level energy and/or stronger low level deep convergence along defined boundaries which will be a bit hard to come by today.  

The best convergence should occur along the east coast north of West Palm Beach on the east side aided by low level helicities along the 'somewhat side shore component' to the east coast sea breeze being affected by the synoptic scale flow as a result of the broader cyclonic circulation over the state as evidenced in the small scale by the low pressure area shown

Otherwise, showers and or thunder could conceivably occur almost anywhere, but the east side will probably hold off until later in the day as activity moves from southwest to northeast in general from the west side and sets off foreword moving outflows ahead of the west coast sea-breeze in tango with the synoptic scale SW Flow from 2000ft up through the 18,000 ft large scale flow in a very moist environment.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The South west flow will begin to relax a bit, but there is also a chance some drier air will be slotted in with it across a portion of the state. As a result, at this point it appear activity will not be nearly as prevalent on one or both days. A cold front is forecast to reach near the area around the Florida/Georgia border before being absorbed ..thus not directly impacting the majority if not all of the state, but more directly the area north of I-4 where storm coverage might be greatest and/or strength.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The GFS implies colder air aloft and better chance of sea breeze convergence toward the East half of the state with activity to exit the east coast.  The NAM is not showing the colder air aloft though. This is apart from any other unforeseen circumstances (variables yet foreseen) - that is the general picture being painted at this point this morning. If there is colder air, storms could become strong to pulse severe at time toward the end of this week.

BEYOND: Continued chances of showers/thunderstorms extends will into next week - though the amount of coverage and locations is well too far beyond to bother attempting to forecast such.  Temperatures are expected to remain warm though with no sign of cooler air as of yet to overcome the state.

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