"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, March 5, 2012

Quite Pleasant (!) Today - Backdoor Front Tonight

Global Forecast System Model (GFS) Valid Valid For 1AM tonight (Tuesday early). As noted a few posts ago, another boundary would skirt by to the north; and high pressure, as we see above, will rapidly press eastward behind it. The result being a surge of NE-ENE winds overnight tonight toward early Tuesday, especially toward daybreak with increasing low level type stratocumulus clouds as well during the day

TODAY: "Chamber of Commerce" Day in store with highs in the low - mid 70Fs. Clear sky and light wind from the WNW-NW ahead of another frontal boundary. This  frontal boundary referred to a few posts ago will skirt by to the north mostly, but the tail end will cross East Central Coastal area 2AM overnight tonight in 'backdoor fashion' (from the NNE direction as opposed to from a westerly direction as fronts normally more from west to east). The winds in the mid-levels by that time will already be from the NE despite surface winds from the north (light) before then. As the front passes we could have a 'surge' of stronger NE-ENE winds and increasing low level moisture from the Atlantic, most notable all day after day break Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Believe it will be 3-6 degrees cooler mainly Central and North on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs toward the east side behind the boundary's passage with stratocumulus clouds all along the entire east coast. Warmer south. By late afternoon a few sprinkles are possible mainly north of Vero Beach close to the beaches. Guidance is 'up in the air' over exactly how much if any rain will fall. Believe the NAM rainfall showing measurable amounts central by sunset might be over-doing it, but will monitor this and continue to compare with the GFS which shows nothing but sprinkles (at most) except increasing chances toward far South Florida heading into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: No change in the pattern. Winds could be a bit gusty, especially at the east coast beaches Tuesday-Friday with periods of stratocumulus clouds gradually abating with time to a lesser degree, probably spreading inland during the late morning hours, with some sprinkles at the coast (possible). Low and high temperatures will vary very (very) little along the immediate coast between night and day (by perhaps 7F degrees) and remain in the mid to upper 60Fs overnight and lower-mid 70Fs day time. In other words, east coast temperatures will be dictated by those of the near shore waters.  Again, will need to monitor for showers, but as noted yesterday it appears the depth of atmospheric moisture will remain too shallow to foster much more than a sprinkles other than toward late Wednesday far South Florida and Keys.

BEYOND: So far, no cold fronts are shown to impact Florida for quite some time as a short-lived 'blocking pattern' aloft sets up well west of Florida in the South Central Plains toward the Mississippi. 

This pattern, although preventing fronts from reaching Florida while high pressure and onshore winds continue over the state, will generate persistent stormy and/or rainy (heavy) conditions toward East  Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Western Tennessee specifically. If any severe occurs it looks like it will Louisiana and Southern Arkansas, and perhaps West Mississippi. 

Expect we will hearing in weather headlines in days to come a new story going from tornadoes (as was the case) to floods from late Tuesday through at least Friday in that area.  

For Florida, to verdict is in for  little change over much of the state (especially toward the north half into week 2 of March);  could have more clouds and rain chances as well once that blocking pattern starts to break down and shift the remaining moisture eastward toward middle of next week. When the pattern will break is up for grabs though despite (in my opinion) what the models are showing. No temperature issues at all for Florida are shown for the next two weeks (fingers crossed); thus, indeed that cold blast of a week ago as noted previously might have  been the last one of the winter .  Any rainfall this time of year is welcomed as we are now and have been in 'the dry season'.    

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