"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Florida Cold Front Today (..and... For Christmas?)

"Here's Comes Da Front" - Light winds and good sunshine Central. This image from late morning shows clearly where the clouds exist, with Central in the 'clear' until mid-afternoon as front pulls into 'station' from the north and west. Some sprinkles
are possible with the boundary, as well as toward SE Florida, especially overnight toward Sunday morning SE Coast. Minimal Temperature impacts, mainly along and north of I-4.
TODAY: A very weak cold front is crossing the state today, but frankly other than the clouds as shown above, it is a bit difficult to discern on model guidance. The best tool was analysis of the mid-level wind fields and their forecast parameters combined with low level moisture content in the atmosphere. With those in mind, the drier low level/surface air will be moving through and down the state today through early Sunday, with the drier air moving into Dead Central toward Midnight with drier, and thus cooler air to follow through sunrise.

Otherwise, we could likely expect to see increasing clouds Central by mid-late afternoon into sunset, with more coverage all day South Central to South Florida. North Florida is already in the boundary and the clouds, which are already clearing in some areas, panhandle. More clouds again possible there though too, until after dark.

SUNDAY: NNW-NW winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon, scattered clouds by afternoon with highs maybe 2-5 degrees cooler than recent days. Morning lows also 2-4 degrees cooler immediate east coast south of I-4, with the coolest change to occur over the NW Quadrant of the state, including areas such as Ocala, Brooksville, NW of Orlando (as well as Orlando) and west toward Tampa, falling by 5-10 degrees more. 

Why is the front not going to make things all 'Christmas Cold' like? Recall, last year at this time it had already fallen below freezing along the beaches even.

Water Froze Over in Bird Bath 12/14/2010 in Cape Canaveral

Forecast position of front around 2000 ft above ground tonight. Note that the north winds are circulating low level air from South Texas northward then back south to Florida. This, as opposed to what a true 'Winter Blast" would have origins from, shown with the "X'd out Blue area indicating a north wind and jet stream from the Arctic Regions. Big Difference!

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will veer from NW-NNW on Sunday toward the NNE-NE on Monday and eventually E-ESE byThursday. In light of that factor, wind will again be coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean waters instead of off the Polar Ice Cap. I don't see any Ice Bergs or Polar Bears floating offshore this morning, but did see some folks walking barefoot in the sand. In short, return to more of the same with the probable and seasonal afternoon and evening stratocumulus cloud decks re-emerging and moving slowly across and/ or forming over the state.

CHRISTMAS PRELIMINARY FORECAST: Wow, last I saw from the late night GFS (Global Forecast System model) run yesterday, the next bona fide cold front to move in will be on Christmas Eve. This was a relatively 'new' concept to the model...previous runs of the same model had been holding off on the colder air (possible 40Fs wide spread), so not quite ready to prepare the Yule Logs just yet. However, if one is hoping for the extra cold bite to the Christmas morning air, it just might be on tap. Either way, it is to last (per that model run) but 48 hours tops before the next front, New Year's Eve.  

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