|Opening Son Flower - Cape Canaveral on Good Friday|
Early day post might be overdone but given the latest RAP and HRRR output hard to ignore CAPE upwards to 3000 j/kg (highest since summer time) South Half of state though the latest NAM and GFS show values considerably lower. Cold air aloft coupled with increasing wind at the lower levels enough to nearly but not entirely offset the east coast sea breeze with temperatures warming into the lower- mid 80Fs where better cloud breaks are sustained for a few hours over parts of the state south of I-4 might be 'the zone of contention' later today.
"Possible Fly in the Ointment" in forecast today from any potential outflow boundary that could result from activity in the Gulf - if so - much of the forecast will be 'blown away'.
|Early Morning Infrared shows two complexes of storms on either side of the state and a boundary|
that raced south from North Florida now approaching Lake Okeechobee
Given what is shown in those models outside of 'other things' will ride on the higher CAPE and cold air aloft coupled with sea breeze and potential Lake Okeechobee boundaries for today 's post calling for some stronger storms, possibly low end severe and mainly closer to the east coast after 3 pm up to as late as 9 pm with other activity still possible, outside of any unforeseen events.
SATURDAY: Again a chance of stronger storms toward the east coast mainly from Brevard County to Jacksonville - though again - what is to occur on Saturday, and when, might well be contingent upon what does (or does not) occur today. Especially watching for an foreseen possibly outflow from the mass out over the Eastern Gulf as to how that might end up working into the equation (see previous image above - infrared satellite)
SUNDAY-MONDAY: Looks more like an 'all clear' for most areas on Sunrise Easter Morning except the Western Panhandle.
Frontal boundary that is near the FL/GA border will oscillate generally in that area into Monday where the overall greatest rainfall issues will be (that is, namely north of I-4). Rainfall could move in from North and West to Central portions of the state from late morning into early afternoon.
Only parts of South Central and South Florida appear will continue to be in the "less chance of rainfall and storms" category through the duration of this multi-day rain chance event (some heavy) with totals possibly exceeding 4-5" before all is said and done in a few select areas. My location observed 2.50" over night and from the looks of radar last night, parts of Osceola County likely far exceeded that.
TUESDAY: Strong storms are not expected on Tuesday . There is still a chance of some rains Central South on Monday - but by Tuesday it looks like : "The Show's Over" for several days (nearly a week). Cooler but not cold with easterly flow regime established.