"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Isolated Strong Storms Seem More Likely Today, Mainly Beyond 4:30pm

Lighter steering toward the east (slower storm motions) will allow sea breeze and Lake Breeze boundaries to interact today. Overall, steering toward the coast seems more likely from Palm Beach County and north toward Southern Volusia as the 500mb trough is now located from near St. Augustine to Port Charlotte, and vorticity is stretched from near Bradenton to Cocoa Beach along its leading edge most of today
TODAY: Another variation of the past two with again a cluster of storms in the NE Gulf and what appears to be an outflow boundary if not now but soon to develop which could accelerate  from the west coast sea breeze inland across all of North Central except closer toward 528.  Thus, activity 'might' get started sooner here away from the upper level energy, although some mid-level energy could be realized for a stronger storm due to winds. Chances are though, the better chances for said strong activity will reside from near Port Canaveral southward toward Ft Pierce (in particular)..or perhaps Vero to Southern Palm Bay as a result if interactions with the Lake Breeze and sea breeze and resultant domino progression both north and southward.

The sea breeze, although light, could make it toward I-95 before realizing the west coast breeze south of the Space Center where steering further south ahead of the upper level trough will be more favorable for off shore or off the coast storms to result, as well as outflows from them reaching back to the coast to trigger more activity in 'a location somewhere' within those bounds from Brevard and Southward to Miami in general.

Temperatures aloft are cooler or are forecast to be so today than the past two days, so gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning is entirely plausible to assume will or can become a reality as well as dry air 'head bolts' preceding actual rainfall occur. Thus, be T'wise to take extra precaution both inland where clouds developed toward Orlando and South through Eastern Osceola County to the Lake Shore of Okeechobee. Would not be surprised if a funnel cloud or so report came in for entertainment purposes.

FRIDAY: Tough call frankly, as a tropical wave now over Central Cuba and northward will begin to lift the ridge axis now over far South Florida northward messing with our steering currents as a result. More than likely activity will not be impacting the east coast directly (i.e., beaches) but rather along and west of the intracoastal and the interior.

WEEKEND: Moisture associated with the waves to wash ashore sometime Saturday afternoon or evening toward early Sunday, hard call, but soonest along the east coast south of West Palm on Saturday. The ECMWF has been consistent with an 850mb vorticity center to clip just near the east coast, closest from Vero and the Cape ,so it is probably not safe to make any assumptions on timing and extent of precipitation heading from Late Saturday toward Sunday morning at this conjuncture.  

BEYOND: Moisture could loiter through Monday into Tuesday with likely a few tricks up its sleeve concerning time and location of rain and/or storms.  
Otherwise, there could be a  drying trend heading into mid-late week as the now Tropical Depression in the SE Caribbean slides mainly Westward south of Cuba and potentially close to Jamaica taking in the moisture field and robbing it from Florida. Guidance does show the system to become named or nearly so  , but it is tough call as to exactly when. Most guidance shows the system to become 'fully mature' to whatever extent that means near the Yucatan, taking it into Mexico or Southern Texas in about a week. A few outliers desire to drift it further north however. Point being, that's the point. No one can say, as is always the case is the extended absurdness. Such was the case last month or was it June when I system was though to head toward Texas and ended up around Florida. 

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