"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, December 1, 2013

After Cool Down Monday, Warm Through Next Weekend (Little to No Rain)

TODAY: Pressure gradient is relaxing as high pressure loosens it's influence gradually as a large upper level trough prepares to plow south and east across the majority of the country this week. Light winds this morning and afternoon as an inverted trough just off shore results in convergence and some rains showers which 'could' work on shore as they have already in some areas prior to day break. They will be moving a bit slower than past days; with daytime 'heating', moisture trapped in the low levels could induce additional cloud cover and a coolishness to the air along the immediate beaches, but the wind factor will be greatly diminished. Areas that are out and away from cloud cover will feel quite pleasant, but exactly where those areas will be is up for grabs.

TONIGHT:TOMORROW  Not much change from prior post other than that it appears that the  'inverted trough' offshore might develop a surface low type circulation a bit sooner than anticipated as of the previous post which is actually better news for those who prefer warmer weather in the long run. 

The effect in this case will be for a northerly (NW) wind to develop tomorrow (Monday) with highs potentially remaining in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs from dead Central and South contingent upon the timing, and cooler North, especially along and north of I-4 as colder air to the immediate north will be invited southward courtesy of the NW wind off the landmass (in all areas) which will be modified to warmer the further south it gets (esp. to South Florida).

TUESDAY/END OF WEEK: The country will be quite cool to cold for this time of year for much of the week, but at this point it 'appears' Florida and parts of extreme SE Georgia will escape the worst for the duration of the 'event' , though extreme North Florida will eventually get into the act to a much lesser degree.

Below is the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast temperature plot for 18z or 1pm Eastern Time for next Sunday as an example of the temperature spreads across the U.S. The warmer the air, the more 'red' , the cooler the air the more blue to dark blue, if not purple.

Shown above: a stationary boundary across North Florida as  temperatures
this day along and west of I-95 approach the lower to mid 80Fs (next Sunday). And that is quite a bit of a way off in time, so this will likely change but for now will hold tight to this general assumptio
LONG RANGE Plot below was generated two days ago though.

BEYOND: The boundary to bring the cold air across the country (shown as stationary in the previous image or modulating from north to south) will have quite a bit of 'density' behind it; as a result there is a respectable change as has been shown by the 'beyond time' GFS slant that it will eventually sink south into Central Florida making for a 'cool down' but not anywhere near to the very cold 'degrees' the rest of the country will be experiencing. 

We could begin to see a prolonged cool period though going into the fullness of the end of the second full week of December and into the third one, but even still guidance at this rate is showing onshore flow which means moderated temperature conditions locally due to the influence of near shore Atlantic Waters (BUT, things change).

Guidance has also been showing the coldest yet still to come for a two day period well out in time toward the 14th -16th time frame (in general) on the wings of Northwest winds. Little to no rain is foreseen should this particular aforementioned conditional expression manifest though, so what that means is some 'fine days may be in store beginning Tuesday and beyond for a good week across the Florida Peninsula".

"Florida Might Rest in the Calmer Waters Safe from the Raging Cold"

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