"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

"C'mon Man, Shuffle The Cards!"

(Image: Mid-level moisture abetted by a mid-level lifting mechanism <stronger wind aloft> makes for pleasant, sunrise sky gazing shortly after sunrise)
SYNOPSIS: Mid-level moisture introduced in yesterday's discussion continues at noon time, this Wednesday, from the Gulf of Mexico and across the Southern and Central Peninsula. A cold front extends SSW from the Eastern Carolinas, through SE Georgia and into S. Alabama where it then tails off to nothingness.  Further west, high pressure is shifting east across the Northern and Central Gulf. Sounding data shows precipitable water value (PWAT) at 1.32" which is better than some recent days, but a far cry from our 1.90"+ that is present during almost the entire summer.
To add insult to injury from a thirsty man's perspective, the canteen remains empty since the majority of this moisture is locked in the mid-levels or roughly between 6-12,000 feet. Above this narrowly sliced level of moisture the winds increase from uniform direction from about 22kts to 80kts much higher up. Essentially, the higher winds speeds just above the moisture layer air were acting as an escape, or lifting mechanism, for the air below them to rise just a bit before reaching drier air and evaporating at their first opportunity. As such, no rain anywhere in the state as of this writing. In fact, now that the sun is out mixing with the drier air both above and below the moisture layer is acting like the top half of a broiled Monte Cristo other words, it's "toasted'. Nice little cumulus forming though with what moisture remains boiling out under otherwise  full daytime sunshine. This makes for something to at least look at if one happens to look up to see a UFO passing overhead.
Elsewhere , "Go West Young Man!". The cut off low now near the Northern Baja will move E-ENE during the next  36-48 and impact SE New Mexico, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and eventually almost all of Oklahoma by Friday into Saturday with severe weather. Could be seeing a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch box going out for SE New Mexico into extreme SE Texas near Midland/Odessa later today, which will be the first of many in this outlined area through Friday-Saturday. Figured they'd get more than what was originally out-looked for in that area in yesterday's post.
HERE TODAY: Not much change, if any, from yesterday's gaze into the future. As expected, the circulation coming off the N. Yucatan is completely gone, although the general circulation from which it developed is providing the moisture necessary for clouds. Further south off the SW Florida coast, there's actually a decent little line of heavy showers which can't seem to penetrate, which I'm philosophizing as being, the drying low level air mass over the near by landmass (otherwise known as the Florida Peninsula). Also, much to my amazement, there's a teeny-tiny, two-pixel'd shower near Ft. Pierce. Otherwise, nice temperatures and partly cloudy (to maybe mostly cloudy for a brief time near sunset in a few isolated locations) conditions will prevail. Note though, The Weather Channel is calling for a 30% Chances of thunderstorms here in Brevard...I imagine it is, or was, the same case for folks further south). I think they were looking at a 12 hour old run of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model when that forecast was generated some time over night. Hey guys, wake up there in Atlanta! Who knows, then again, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) indicated defiantly with a 'no colored precipitation panel' earlier today that we would remain without rain, but the latest one now shows the possibility of a trace any where south of a Cocoa Beach - Tampa line by 8pm. Wouldn't expect we'll see anything more than a quarter inch anywhere today...since anything that can form will be isolated, small, and moving at a 20-25mph clip from WSW to ENE. And t'were that to occur, it will most likely be south of a Ft. Pierce, Sarasota line.
TOMORROW-WEEKEND: The Carolina cold front will ooze south and lay flat close to a Brevard to Brooksville line before pulling off to the east and losing identity at the southern flank over Central Florida as it does. High pressure will be moving in from the west across the Gulf and over the state by late Friday and through the upcoming weekend. No significant change in temperatures in days ahead. Here we go again, getting dealt the "Joker". Not funny. Go fish!...and speaking of fish....:
THE TROPICS: System Invest 99L (under investigation) continues to become better organized just to the WSW of Jamaica this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows there is a low level circulation in place, and I suspect that we will be addressing a TD (yeah, 6 points for the gipper) tonight or overnight. Where it goes from there, in all reality, is not any one's's everyone's. Some models do little with the system for at least 72 hours as it's "sheared, not steered" by conflicting mid-level winds. In fact, all the rain action with the circulation is well to the N-ENE of the circulation center and over Jamaica close to the surface. 
But by 72 hours, if not sooner, these winds should die for a bit before reinforcements come in associated with the high pressure that will shift across Florida. The models seem to have a handle on all this to occur (except the GFDL and HRWF), but what it does in the mean time can be part 1 of many other significant and required chains-of-events necessary for future development and resultant storm track taking. To make a "paint by numbers" portrait based on the latest GFDL run, we have a moderately paced, but steadily developing no holds barred Hurricane in 54 hours and within 6 days we're staring up the barrel at a Cat 5 bullet passing through the Yucatan Channel with an evil eye on Florida. Man your battle stations!! We're playing "WAR!". Interestingly, the HRWF takes a similarly chaotic tracing around/near Jamaica before taking "Richard" to nearly the same location as a Category 2 by Sunday. (spell check tries to correct 'GFDL' to "GODLY'...does it know something we don't?)
Meanwhile, Typhoon Megi is just hours (several) away from SE China.  Looks like it could make a landfall just North of Hong Kong, but this region is very highly populated and even after landfall flooding could pose a problem for days afterward. I bet we'll hear a lot about this system on the nightly news by the weekend if not sooner. This storm is responsible for the loss of approximately 10 lives in the Philippines. But you know, Megi can be one of the reasons that the models are having problems with what happens in the SW Gulf. It's a "Domino Affect"...air currents flowing around the system are disrupted down stream from it, and this has a rippling affect as far east the the next 72 hours..and/or until Megi landfalls we still might see future model chaos.
Now, let's reshuffle the cards. I see a lamb, a cloud, and an image of Christopher Columbus...oh wait, these are Tarot cards. Doesn't matter. The other models show essentially nothing but weak low pressure for the next 72 hours. I believe the make or break point will be known for sure by late Friday, but in the meantime I'm running with gut feeling...which says that high pressure will win out...especially over the weekend as a healthy dose of "happy pills" spills across the Gulf and Florida...forcing the system southward in a state of dismay..."Go Fish". But never say never until all is said and done. It would be nice to get some rain...but I think our first real statewide rain event is going to end up arriving in the form of a tail end Charlie of what will be a squall line passing across the Dixie Region within the next 10 days....hopefully, we too can proclaim, "Gin!"

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