"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 24, 2012

Very Warm/Breezy Today, Clouds/Showers Thru Mid-Week

TODAY at 3pm per RUC Forecast: Rapid Update Cycle Model forecast shows the general positioning of approaching cold front through the SE states. Note two things: 1) area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche area extending to the north. This is evident IMPORTANTLY into the mid-levels near 5000 ft.; 2) Upper low over Mexico; this will be a factor on Sunday as it moves east and north, by picking up the MIDLEVEL portion of that low in the GULF. Colors show were storms or showers are possible over Florida today (Panhandle).

TODAY: A cold front is approaching the state, with passage through the state expected to be complete by shortly after noon time on Saturday. Meanwhile, ahead of the boundary, SW-WSW wind today much like yesterday although a bit breezier and very warm, similar to yesterday with all areas reaching the mid-and maybe upper 80Fs. Morning stratiform clouds will burn off through noon-time with a jump in temperatures after noon- 1pm all areas except toward the panhandle where clouds are more predominant and will be more extensive, and where some showers and possible strong thunderstorms could occur, although it appears most of them will be north of I-10 as of this morning's trends.

TONIGHT: Front will work down the state, possibly accompanied by a very thin band of showers and low rainfall totals due to the stretched out nature of forcing along the front. Rainfall, if any, should be less than 01.0". (one tenth inch). The front is expected to slow up a bit across North Central to Central around sunrise, then pick up momentum again after sunrise clearing Dead Central sometime after 4AM-8AM as it works toward South Central slowly.The front could be accompanied by brief showers and NNW winds, becoming possibly gusty, finally reaching the Keys and into the straights by early-mid afternoon.

SATURDAY: Call attention to the area of low pressure shown in the SW Gulf as well as the upper low shown well to the west. Those two could merge in a sense and reach across the Eastern Gulf and Florida by Sunday afternoon. In reality, our surface cold front will be very "shallow", not extending much above 3000-4000 ft, whereas at 5000 ft (850mb), the depictions show that trough aiding the surface front will hang up across Central and then lift back north on Sunday (along with that moisture with the low pressure area in the SW Gulf) as the upper low/trough translates eastward across the Deep South.

This is also for 3pm today. We can see the upper low. Note now that even though our cold front tonight and early Saturday will be south of the state, on Saturday this slow will be still well to the west and moving east. The net affect of this low will be to lift the mid-level 'frontal boundary' from Central Florida back northward with southerly winds aloft and ENE-east winds at the surface on Sunday, creating warm air over-running, extensive cloudiness, and showers across the North Half of the state nearer the 850mb "warm front".

SATURDAY (Cont'd): After frontal passage, winds will be NW-N early on, slowly veering to NE later in the day. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies 'could' persist over the South 1/2 of the state, with a brief shot of cold air advection impacting the north 1/2 mainly. Highs in the low 60Fs, although would not be surprised to see upper 50Fs wedged in toward the Cape and north along the coast and into the interior of North Central Florida. The south 1/2 of the state will be much warmer though, possibly by 10-14 F degrees toward Miami-Dade/Keys...although clouds could be a nerve wracking persistent. Winds becoming easterly overnight with a small warming trend along the immediate coast as the come onshore across the ocean waters, accompanied by some clouds as well.

SUNDAY: Upper low well to the west now approaching along the I-10 for West Florida will tend to 'buckle' the frontal boundary at 5000 ft (850mb) which appears will never really clear Central Florida at all; hence, a shallow frontal boundary passage. As the front buckles north and the upper low moves east along and over it, so to will the area of low pressure in the SW Gulf be broken off 'piece meal' through Tuesday (at least). Abundant moisture will lift north over the state, with possible thunder SE Florida and along the West coast by later Sunday or Monday. The driving factor for precipitation / clouds will be much colder air aloft and some energy as opposed to surface based instability. Cold air not far above 'the deck' will air in mid-level lift along with isentropic lift from southerly winds above, all the while wind at the ground will be easterly becoming ESE-SE on late Monday and later on to the South toward Mid-Week before the next frontal approach.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR shows DRY air over Florida in the mid-upper levels (orange like color)..with moisture obvious by the whites. blues and greens. Note storms over Central Georgia in this moisture shot as well as SE Mississippi. The green line across Florida shows where showers seem more likely on Sunday, but the remainder of the state will become 'game' by Monday and Tuesday, if not a portion of Wednesday.. 
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Now getting further out in time, the degree of uncertainty as always becomes a big player for this time frame in regard to how, where, and why rain will fall in specific areas. Thus, to broad brush and not go into details, it remains that ample moisture will remain with a warming trend well in the mid-upper 70Fs as winds veer more toward the Southeast (SE). The mid-level 'warm front' will be well out of the picture, but the moisture will not be. Thus, expecting period of showers if not storms toward either coast on the south side of the state..showers elsewhere, but timing is near impossible to ascertain at this time. Cloud coverage looks to be a good bet though.

WEDNESDAY: Looks like a 'maybe break' in the clouds but not entirely, In fact, we do not see a drying out possible until at least next weekend. Thus, it appears all of next week will be at least cloudy if not more so. The next front may or may not even make it across the state, stay tuned.

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