Image: Forecast depiction of big rain totals impacting East Central Florida by Monday at 2am in the morning
SYNOPSIS: High pressure centered along the U.S. East Coast over New York state is ridging south along the entire U.S. east coast. Meanwhile, a surface low is centered just south of Medicine Lodge (P28), Kansas along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. The surface ridge and low will shift east during the course of the next 24-48 hours...putting Florida under the influence of the low and appendent trough rather than the ridge axis as we will experience today.
TODAY: Clockwise circulation around the surface high over New York will place Florida under a N-NE wind for the first half of the day at about 8-12mph by 10a.m.. After a cool start of 63 degrees from my vantage point we will warm nicely into the mid-upper 70s today. As has been the case of late, the coolest temperatures in the state today will be along and east of A1A where the cooling effect of the ocean water (and subsequent air just above that water) will be felt. Expect the high east of A1A to be around 73-75 whereas west of the Banana River 76-79 is much more likely. It was previously thought that we could get a little windy today ...but based on the early morning sounding and the weaker pressure gradient between our two systems...I don't believe it will get as breezy as the official forecast was making it seem it would be yesterday. Sky will be mostly clear with only a few sparse, thin high clouds from time to time. In other words, better sky conditions than yesterday but a little cooler by about 5-7 degrees across the boards.
TONIGHT: Not as cool as last night/this morning with a low closer to 67 degrees and a few clouds. Very light east wind at 5mph or less.
SUNDAY: Very pleasant to start the day. Wind will shift to the SE by mid morning and after a 67 degree start to the day we will warm to around 78 degrees. During the course of the day winds will become more southerly and pick up to the 12-19 mph range as clouds increase. First thin high clouds, then some lower cumulus clouds will sprout. By mid- late afternoon expect a plethora of various clouds at all levels to formulate and increase in density and coverage as the first vestiges of what's to come moves onto the west coast from Sarasota and points north. I wouldn't want to be on the beach anytime after 4:30pm as things will rapidly start to get a bit shaky with thunderstorms possibly erupting to the west and heading this way. I won't be surprised if we end up in a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch Box prior to 4-5pm tomorrow!
Believe that a prefrontal trough will move into Florida and cross the state with discrete cells prior to it's arrival starting to pop by 4pm. The actual prefrontal trough could harbor itself as a broken squall line with embedded bowing segments...and potentially supercell thunderstorms. We actually could have two convective (thunderstorm) episodes. The first would be diurnally induced storms given we will have some CAPE and decent lapse rates under basically a zero CAP. Strong upper level winds along with approaching low level jet will produce enough lift to generate these storms; however, these initial storms could weaken significantly as they approach the coast (mainly east of US 1) due to the cooler air (from the ocean) which often saps them of strength..but there will also be plentiful low and mid level moisture values. So some of these might be able to sustain themselves to at least be a big wind and lightning threat along the immediate coast as well. Then the second round as the prefrontal trough moves in accompanied by a low level jet. This will be of even greater consequence/threat. The time frame for this potential and more likely second round is between 6-8pm. I'd be keeping abreast of the weather around here in any case any time after 3:30pm tomorrow !!
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Rain! Thunderstorms could be ongoing until the 1-2am time frame..but eventual stabilization of the atmosphere will yield to mostly just rainy conditions for all of Monday with a high in the mid 70s if we're lucky..probably more likely low 70s....prior to cold frontal passage. It currently appears that the front will pass through quite ajarringly, is that a word (?) by 7-8pm...essentially right at or before sunset. Skies will clear fairly rapidly but not during the daylight time frame.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies and cooler with a low by Tuesday morning of 55 degrees.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Back to somewhat cooler conditions for these days and dry. Skies mostly clear with sparsely scattered clouds. Low along the coast in the mid 50s for that brisk morning walk and a high both days in the lower 70s.
FURTHER OUT: Gradual warming trend and dry. No rain in the foreseeable future..at least not for a good 10 days.