"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Same Theme With Slightly Better Storm Chance (East Coast Late)

"Good Day, Sunday ..."
TODAY: Upper level winds at jet  stream and below are beginning to work in as advertised several days ago, but more so on Monday. As a result, sufficient bulk shear, some directional shear, and instability all adequate to support  strong to severe storms; but as usual, the caveats : Dry layer in the mid levels aloft  might not be able to be overcome in the absence of sufficient surface boundaries other than the east coast sea breeze combined with the west coast sea breeze collision far east side of state east of the Florida  Turnpike (except south Florida) and approaching high level cloud cover.  

Warm again though today away from the east. One difference though for today already at play from yesterday is the east coast sea breeze has already set in as of noon which was several hours earlier than yesterday but how far inland it will work is debatable.  This might help activity pop in more locations up and down the east coast than yesterday though that dry layer is might deep at time. Se Breeze might get as far as between US1 to I-95 by late afternoon and then the next caveat at play enters the picture. More late afternoon high 'blouses' aloft on the way once again (and even before that time as well). See image below

This Hi Resolution Infrared Image shows cold cloud tops in Red but you can see the milky white thin clouds heading toward most of the state within the next 2 hours. ..right during peak heating. OOPS
Other than the chance of storms, though very isolated (like last night toward Vero Beach mainly) but perhaps a bit more numerous today (would watch especially Brevard and Indian River Counties), it will be like yesterday in other locations... . The activity shown in the image above over the Gulf though moving ENE is expected to fall apart prior to landfall, but if it doesn't than all the models were off, so it will be interesting to see what transpires. There is currently a tornado watch in place over the panhandle but no warnings at time of posting nor were any strong storms seen on radar either. 

"Everything Under The Sun Except storms. I'm  telling ya..."  
MONDAY Another day almost like today but with an even greater chance of severe storms but with the same caveats at almost the same timing per latest NAM at least. Another disturbance nicely timed to roll across or near the Panhandle earlier in the day..rain chance might be higher tomorrow though regardless of the's just a matter of if it will be storms or mostly rains

TUESDAY Boundary sinks toward Central Florida and best rain chances appear will be over South Central and South Florida, but strong storms not anticipated at time.

WEDNESDAY  might be a break for the most part

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Shifting patterns put swinging forecasts and models on the run trying to keep up with active southern branch jet pattern at hand. One day down with return to southerly flow as frontal boundary lifts back north and washes out in the approach of another trough. Could be active again at least one day next week beginning on Thursday

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