"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Is There a Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Overnight Tomorrow?

Other than Increasing Rain Chances Friday Night and Saturday
 "This" Might Be Something To Watch For
TODAY-FRIDAY: Deep moisture increasing from the SE AND the West well aloft currently in play. The cloud cover at the upper levels shown above is emanating well from the west and south just from north of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) South of Hawaii as seen on the Northern Hemispheric water vapor imagery. It's one long continuous trail, so no end in sight in that regard in the interim regarding ample clouds and moisture. 

Meanwhile,  a somewhat complex situation might be setting up over Florida and thereabouts Friday evening into early Saturday as the first of two short wave troughs preceding the next actual cold front for Sunday morning will pass across the state.

FRIDAY LATE: (note this time, just in case) The first is shown run after run by the GFS to occur across the Peninsula (somewhere) between South Central to North Central Florida Friday late evening beginning the west coast. Wind shear profiles and hodographs would indicate rotating storms, but so far no OFFICIAL outlets have even hinted at anything unusual to occur overnight, so to be taken with a big dose of question marks a glass of water, and call the doctor in the morning. 

The clincher in this regard is that beside the directional and speed shear with height, the mid level vertical velocities  especially toward the west side of the state are almost off the charts, therefore..only a heads up for some locally heavy but brief rain, or maybe even some 'rotating storms' but dare we mention those two words combined?..only in a post on a blog I suppose. But take it for what it's worth which might not be much. The GFS is the only one showing this I suppose because the NAM sure isn't..or at least not to the same degree nor timing wise.

SATURDAY: Instability to be greater this day than Friday night which was also showing increasing instability to climb north from South Florida even overnight. Though directional shear appears will be nearly absent, could be enough juice to get the camp fire's burning with 'thunder bolted lightning, very very frightening"  for Saturday beginning late morning through sunset with numerous 'notwithstanding maybes' this far out in time to be certain of all too very much of anything in regard to thunder as opposed to rain.

BEYOND: Front clears prior to Sunrise Sunday..with onshore winds commencing and not cold, but inland lows will be seasonably cool. Noting that high pressure to follow might set up a situation for the next two systems to follow to have their origins from Northern Mexico or South Texas, which could mean some troubling times ahead for  parts of the Deep South going into April. Time will tell if indeed a new pattern is beginning to emerge , and if not, no worse for wear.

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