"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Storms Up and Down the East Coast Possible after Mid-Afternoon Possible

Screen capture of latest visible satellite imagery shows Isaac south of Louisiana drifting toward the WNW (it seems). And lines of cumulus with some thunder showers getting underway across Central portions as of 1:30pm
TODAY: Sea breezes should help aid in some stronger activity with cooler air aloft today in the wake of the warm air aloft associated with the Tropical Cyclone to the west of the state. Steering just above the surface is predominantly from the SSW-SW around 15-22mph this afternoon and may increase yet more north of Lake Okeechobee later today as high pressure in the mid levels begins to build across South Florida. Otherwise, the atmosphere is fully saturated.

Would expect that any activity will move out to sea fairly quickly; however, backdraft outflows could enhance or back build into some coastal locations, especially just north of where the mid level ridge builds in namely from St. Lucie County north toward South Volusia County. Strongest storms could be restricted to Central Brevard and north, but any additional rainfall toward St. Lucie and Martin Counties either way (if it occurs) will not be 'appreciated' after the multiple inches accumulated in this area yesterday. Convergence appears could be greatest anywhere though East Central with multiple interactions of off shore moving activity resulting in potentially more than one round of thunder or continued light to moderate rains almost anywhere north of Ft. Pierce as it appears now. Wind gusts toward 40-50mph are possible  with the first storms of the day in any one area (primarily) while instability is maximized before the atmosphere gets 'worked over', with frequent lightning possible for short duration where storms pulse upward just at and beyond the sea breeze.

As it appears now, with activity already underway as can be seen in the above image, the later activity toward 3:45-4:15pm should occur from Brevard County and South..with slower steering south of Vero Beach in particular. Thus, any heavier storm toward Ft. Pierce or even into West Palm Beach area where huge rainfall totals occurred yesterday will only be appreciated by the mosquito and toad populations. However, this is the one area that is a bit questionable in regard to rainfall today. Much, be it as it may, depends on how quickly the high pressure begins to assert itself in tango with the motion of Isaac which is no hurry to make landfall (in full), if not until Wednesday after day break at least.

WEDNESDAY: Much will depend again on those latter two features ("Isaac" and ridge) in regard to where rains will fall on Wednesday but suspect it will be mainly locations over the North half or so of the state, isolated elsewhere. Steering should become weaker as well. In short, tomorrow there will be storms but to delineate exactly where at this time is to dependent upon the anomalous entity called, "Isaac".

BEYOND: Easterly flow begins to dominate the picture across the state with most storms occurring over the west half of the state for several days into the weekend, although it will be quite light. A hint of a tropical type like wave might result in isolate showers near the coast of Central or South, but this too is way beyond worth including in discussion for now.

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