"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Florida Snow Monday?!

(Image: That is what fog looks like from above this morning over Florida)
SYNOPSIS: Not much new on the storm front this morning. Fog, some dense with visibility reports of less than 1/4 or even 1/8 of a mile have filtered in to the reporting offices across Central Florida. The extent of the area covered by the fog is noted per the included visible satellite image. This was as of 9am, and loops show that it has not budged since day first broke. As such, believe it will be breaking up between 10:30-12:00pm...or at least thinning out considerably during that time frame. Should be gone by 1pm.

TODAY: Making the large assumption the fog will break, considering it would be highly unusual for it not to, the remainder of the day from noon time onward will be quite nice with a light NW wind and temperatures reaching the low to mid 70F's.

TONIGHT: Another pleasant but cool evening in store with light winds, fog again possible but will be quick to clear after daylight in those areas where it does form.

SUNDAY: Pleasant start to the day as WSW-SW winds pick up by late morning under partly cloudy sky conditions. A cold front will already be entering the Panhandle. The one I've already harped on in previous posts. Timing is still an issue as to when it will cross East Central Portions of the state, as it could anywhere between 1pm - 6pm. Prior to frontal passage we will be completely overcast with some light rain showers possible. If there is to be any thunder in association with the front I believe it will be well offshore either coast.

Due to extensive cloud coverage, afternoon high temperatures will fail to reach 70F in Central Florida, but south Florida could still eke out some better warmth.

LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING: No matter which model verifies, the front will have made a complete pass through Central Florida by 7pm-8pm. We will remain within the clouds for a brief time after dark, and maybe some light rain....but by 10pm fully expecting the NW winds to come in aboard 'The Polar Express". Next stop....Central and South Florida...before taking a detour back to the north, but leaving behind cold air in its wake.

MONDAY: Very cold by our standards...the afternoon high temperature will be similar to what the low temperature was this Saturday morning; however, it will be accompanied by very gusty NW winds adding quite a wind chill factor to the equation. We all know how that goes.

SNOW?! Well gee whiz. Wouldn't you know the GFS is bringing a second shot of moisture and energy over the state during the noon-4pm time frame on Monday to add insult to injury. Could mean a cloud bank with light, evaporating precipitation falling from it should this materialize. Temperature by this time of day should be too warm for snow anyway...BUT, never say never. Temperatures aloft will be cold all the way up (below freezing) Best chance looks at this time to be the N. Brevard - Daytona and into Seminole Counties. Also over by Crystal River on the west coast. Sometimes the strong winds blowing across the warmer waters has a perverse effect, but I'd expect that the temperature at the surface would have to be a good 10 degrees colder for snow to materialize (as has occurred in the past when we are in the upper 20s). And even snow, it would hardly qualify as 'snow fall'...I bring this up only out of interest sake at this point.

TUESDAY: Too cold again, with slightly less wind. But sunny for sure on this day. I've been noticing that although the models are taking the freezing line much further to the north at the surface, the 0 degrees C line at 925mb and 850mb is still way down in South Florida by Tuesday morning. I think that this temperature will mix down to the surface, especially by Wednesday morning when the atmosphere is most likely to decouple. As such, a solid deep freeze might well be in the cards for almost the entire state Tuesday morning with only the barrier islands east of US1 remaining clear of prolonged freezing temperatures, if any at all.

WEDNESDAY: Another freezing morning in many areas, but less in coverage. A rebound in afternoon temperatures begins as we get back into the low 60s.

THURSDAY: Back to sanity as a much more zonal flow pattern develops across the United States. No big chills appear to be encroaching in on most of the state for quite some time through Christmas at this point. Still looks like a west to east boundary could lay across the Panhandle region which would sink into Central portions next Saturday creating clouds and maybe some light rain, but no big cold air blast is associated with it. In short, next Saturday might not be all we like to make it up to be in terms of "pleasantness". It could be kind of gray all day...but we still have a week to go before then...and enough on the platter to deal with in the short and mid-term.

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