"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Storms SR528 and North, Isolated to Non-Existent Further South

Storm  Over Brevard ! (Saturday)

TODAY/MONDAY: Will box these two days together in this brief weekend post as the differences per model guidance are not great enough as of this hour to warrant greater detail.  Warm again and humid most notable along the beaches of the east coast. Daytona tied a record high of 95F yesterday which wasn't really too much a surprise given the synoptic scale set up as was noted in a previous post. More warmth today as well , especially south of I4 to the east where any rains will be last to reach the beach.

View over the Cape from Canaveral

Activity already on the roll along the Big Bend (see below radar from 11:28AM) and parts of West Central/North noon prior. Activity moving eastward steadily. Westerly winds aloft with a steering toward the east at around 10-13 mph with no sea breezes along the east coast (yet) except far South Florida. Visible satellite imagery is showing the west coast sea breeze is the instigator and timing would bring it to the East Central side in about 5 -6 hours from now discounting any 'forward leaps' from collapsing storm induced OFBs (outflow boundaries) . 

Yesterday the east coast sea breeze across Central barely eked to the West Brevard County line as it was and today the chance of it getting even that far looks quite slim to none. If there is no sea breeze at all along the east coast the chances of a stronger storm go down even lower to near nil; but, lightning is lightning so best beware if out on the water this afternoon. The most deadly strikes are often the first ones and last ones. A strike is a strike, they don't play favorites.

The 'Stronger" storm chance part is more in regard to wind gusts of 35 mph + such as was recorded over mainly parts of Central and North Brevard County yesterday with activity east of I95 (mostly).

All in all a bit like yesterday with an earlier start to the north but the best chance of a stronger storm should be somewhere from Southern Volusia southward toward Sebastian Inlet (if generous) and east of I95  as model guidance is showing activity around the Lake Region of St. Lucie and Martin County as well though visible satellite imagery is quite sparse on the cumulluous cloud field in that area at this time relative to points further north. 

Regardless, better moisture convergence chance down that way IF a sea breeze can form combined with outflow from activity further north such as over parts of Brevard could offset the limiting factors and sprout up a solid storm with strong wind gusts South Central (east) as well very late today.

Same might go for tomorrow

TUESDAY: As noted prior posts, SW-W settering toward the east continues and might deepen even just a bit more with some dry slots imbedded in the flow. This will limit the rain chances to zero in many areas as a result while other areas will at least see some showers and thunder but exactly where will have to wait until the 'day of'. Best rain chances within 20 miles of I-10 in deeper moisture...and down the east coast toward maybe North Brevard into the Melbourne area as it appears now though

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Increasing moisture, with better storm chances over a larger expanse going into next weekend as well perhaps. Temperatures aloft continue to remain warm so no strong storm days other than of isolated nature late in the day are foreseen 

When Your Ship Comes in .... Get On

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