"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 30, 2016

Chance of Strong to 'Pulse Severe" East Central to Southern Interiors Late This Afternoon

Night Storm Moves Away from the Coast  One Evening Last Week
TODAY: Not a whole lot different on this morning's KSC Atmospheric Balloon Sounding from yesterday and the day before. Temperatures  aloft remain on the colder side with 500MB around -8C . A bit of drying has gone on but that is mostly restricted to a region near to north of I4. Based on satellite loops it looks like the driest of air has made it about as far south as it will get and might even begin to retrograde back north during the day. If so, the region in area of Northern Volusia County could get 'interesting' late today with strong winds possible with the boundary in the area. 

Otherwise, the one thing different today is that it looks like we'll be seeing an east coast sea breeze (East Central) which did not occur yesterday. Latest KSC sounding shows steering could be toward the east at 12-17 mph with a very 'shallow sea breeze' possible, possibly curving more parallel to the coast . 

Wind even at only 950MB which is not far above 'the deck' are still a good 15kts right now but expect they will decrease going toward noon time or so at that level. Regardless, they are much lighter below that level so unless those winds higher up  mix to the surface with a vengeance with day time heating,  a sea breeze should be able to manifest at least as far north as the Cape. Further south, no problem from about Vero and south. The sea breeze is important in regard to stronger storms as it would act as a focusing mechanism for low level convergence once the west coast sea breeze and/or out flow boundaries form inland activity propagate toward the east coast.

Storm Forming right along the East Coast Wednesday afternoon which produced frequent lightning and rain totals over 1.5" inches along the Cape Canaveral into Cocoa Beach areas in particular in a very short amount of time.

Convective temperature is a reachable 87F.  With a boundary (a front that was first thought might pass through by this time today several days ago) still north of North Central Florida and making no further progress...convergence near the boundary up toward Volusia County coupled with an sea breeze might make for some  'interesting' atmospheric festivities later today. 

Otherwise would watch down the coast toward the north end of Port Canaveral, Port St John, Mims, Titusville, Oak Hill regions and perhaps inland toward Sanford from there.  Other areas further south and nearer the coast from Port Canaveral southward to Vero Beach and west to  between US1 to 10 miles west of I-95 a secondary area. The third area of interest around Lake Okeechobee down to the Glades (in which is the lowest confidence at time for "Strong' storms) 

Activity might go into the early evening once again as well in very isolated areas.

SATURDAY: Similar to today but with likelihood of the east coast sea breeze making better inland progress. Most activity will favor near and south of I-4 with possibly earlier in the day showers/storm near the east coast propagating inland, but again, will depend on how quickly the east coast sea breeze gets going in earnest and how strong it is. Steering aloft will still be from the SW but does not look like it will be  either strong nor deep enough to bring storms back to the coast at this point.

SUNDAY: Storm chances restricted to interior and west side of the state though might see morning showers near the east coast up through early afternoon.

BEYOND: All eyes on Hurricane Matthew. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center all point to-ward a Cat 1 - Cat 2 Hurricane passing between 150-300 NM east of Cape Canaveral. The trend has been 'east' over the past 24 hours . Here is only a sample below. IF such a course were taken it could mean a day of higher surf and if the storm were close enough a brief `18 hours o less 'window of opportunity' for small squalls near the east coast to work from NNE to south down the coast around the most western periphery of the storm (as seen on the GFS model).  Given the official forecast track, if it were to verify it is unlikely Florida will see rains directly related to the system, but high surf and possible minor beach erosion is another matter.

That would be sometime on Wednesday -Thursday time frame.

 Much can change though.

 Consult the National Hurricane Center or best local source of Official Information . 

Here is a sample of some forecast tracks.

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