"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 5, 2017

Rain Chances Again Today with Stronger Activity Possible Tuesday/Wednesday

"Take Cover" - next few days will not be fit for 'sun-bathing'
TODAY: Pattern change began taking place after midnight and will continue to do so through the course of the day and 'be in affect' most pronouncedly Tuesday and Wednesday as noted in the previous post when it was mentioned there could be a 'chance' of 'strong storms' those days.

The change for today is the development of steering currents aloft for storm motion from the WSW-SW toward the ENE-NE (as opposed to very slow to none) as an upper level trough digs 'unusually' deep for this time of year across the North Central Gulf region and approaches Florida as the ridge axis retreats to the east and south of the state.  Today is a day of being in between the direct influence of the ridge where steering currents were very very slow and the direct influence of the approaching trough as well. As a result, this is a bit of an 'in between day' as on primary influence departs and another approaches. Regardless, gradient winds aloft between the two features are  coming increasingly into affect and will be noted even at ground level by SW winds though still a bit weaker at ground level.

In regard to sensible weather, showers are already approaching SW Florida before dawn in association with a mid-level disturbance which is forecast to approach the east coast mainly from I-4 and south during the mid-afternoon hours. Surface gradient winds might not be strong enough to hold off the east coast sea breeze today, and as such we could see an added 'boost' to activity as outflow from earlier activity over SW /W Florida meets the sea breeze which probably , if it can form, won't get much further west than I-95.  Heating and thus destabilization will not be all so tremendous today due to cloud cover so wouldn't expect we'll see much in 'strong storms' today, but locally heavy rainfall is possible as also  an up-tick in the lightning strike potential.

TUESDAY: The 3KM NAM is hitting hard on the potential for stronger storms mainly due to wind in and near larger storms. Blinding, torrential downpours with this wind is possible with relatively large rainfall totals in a brief amount of time. All the forecast discussions from Official Outlets are hitting hard on the 'rainfall potential' and 'localized flooding' in prone areas realm after scanning through them this morning. The reasons and causes are far to complex and complicated to elaborate over for simplicity's sake and readability (blog purposes).

In general, with Tuesday comes stronger winds aloft primarily over Central and South Florida. Will not get into talking about North Florida though strong to severe there is also possible mainly east of Tallahassee. The areas of greater interest involves the region closer to the base of the upper level trough where the strongest winds at the 500mb level (around 20,000 feet aloft) will be, which is at this time Central Florida as well as at times, South Florida.

CURRENT EARLY MORNING RADAR MONDAY (region in between the red lines
is where "STRONGER" activity is foreseen might occur on Tuesday)

Timing on when activity will make an impact is also questionable for Tuesday. There might well be pre-sunrise or over night storms (more likely toward the West Coast and Panhandle) than at the east coast.

Overall, radar simulations for Tuesday are showing an area as noted in the image above between the red lines to be most impacted  though this is only for depiction purposes . Regardless, stronger storms are more certain to occur Tuesday and Wednesday by far than today as winds aloft increase. 

The current pattern we are in is in no way   reflective of the typical "summer type' storm pattern we'd normally expect to find this time of  year. In Fact, June this year so far (though still early) has proven to be anything but   typical . The high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" looks more like something in late August, especially with how long it's been going on..and as it looks now..will continue after a brief respite  on Thursday and Friday.

WEDNESDAY: Another big day of possible strong storms but like Tuesday, could evolve in a number of different ways so will not get into the details on this post. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlining the majority of the state this day with a 'Marginal Risk' of 'Severe Weather'...there are several ingredients at play for 'severe' but none of them look particularly over whelming.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS is now holding off on the southward extent of the approaching 'cold front' mentioned the other day. The front is now no longer expected to reach South Florida but to wash out somewhere near I-4 or a line running from Central Volusia or just north of Volusia toward a Brooksville line.  Traces of the front are  now indicated at the surface to be across Direct Central though, and that is mentioned as it could to serve as a focal (convergence) point for much more isolated activity on Thursday.

Otherwise, the crux of the deep layer moisture and high PWAT (precipitable water) air (of over 2.00") will depart along with the stronger mid-upper level winds after Wednesday, leaving the remnant boundary straggling behind across Central Florida and still high PWAT air across Far South Florida. Sea breezes appear might be able to come back into play this day with two focus areas. One being along the remnant boundary and then further south toward Lake Okeechobee and south.

SATURDAY: Lower PWAT air but not for long. Like in the previous post, even though the front is not forecast to make it as far south, the high PWAT air is. However, it is still forecast to retreat back north toward a line running from Canaveral to Tampa by day's end. Steering will be lighter from the SW-WSW and sea breezes will become active this day with a chance of thunder mainly Central southward with a drift toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Highest moisture may make it as far north as I-4 from Daytona toward Cedar key region with again sea breezes being active. So far does not look to be 'as cloudy 24/7' over all at this point. Temperatures aloft not all so cold so looks like another chance of the bigger threat being flooding rains locally after several previous days of soaking that are coming up.

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