"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, March 22, 2015

'Marginal' Strong/Severe Storm Chance Monday Continues ...

"On the Lookout for Possible Storms Monday Afternoon - Early Evening"
TODAY: Some thin high clouds off and on might hold down high afternoon temperatures a bit, but mid -upper 80Fs still possible except near the east coast where the sea breeze has set in. Little to no chance of rain most locations though perhaps there could be some very small quick showers near the larger cloud breaks that persist much later today. Already some heavier showers occurring over the panhandle. Better chance for a shower would be east Central near I-95  US 1 as far south as the Ft Pierce area.

MONDAY: Little change in the overall synoptic scale pattern forecast going into Monday. Weak surface low over the Panhandle Gulf coast works south and east with a boundary toward Central Florida during the mid-afternoon and looses identity over East Central Florida by evening. Marginal instability at the surface and weak surface winds down play a potentially more 'rambunctious' set up for more wide spread convection (thunderstorms) with the strong 100+ knot left exit region collocated over east Central during 'prime time'  with  guidance  showing some spotty stronger upper vertical velocities over NE Florida primarily in the afternoon with a few shots across east central. 

All in all though,  any storms that would be strong or severe would be very isolated as shown by the morning NAM model simulated radar forecast and rather spotty GFS 'impression' , but those that can get going, especially if greater instability can be realized, could quickly go severe especially after 3 pm toward the east coast and earlier at spots toward the west coast and north of I4. A sample idea of the coverage for where any said storm could occur might look like this. 

There is a chance that an earlier round of showers could greatly stabilize the atmosphere across central Florida prior to noon time which would for the most part put the squash on stronger late day activity despite some of the otherwise favorable factors that will be in place for strong storms. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary is to wash out over Central Florida with temperatures overall appearing to be in the average range for this time of year, to just above.  These two days appear also to be the best chance of remaining dry though there is hardly a single day where guidance is not showing at least a shower here or there somewhere across Central.

Sunday Morning Bloom
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Now watching this time frame for another chance of showers to even storms in the Friday / Saturday time frame. Guidance is doing horrible on being consistent on the next frontal passage timing wise but continues to show a significant cool down heading toward either later Saturday or Sunday -- at this stage would not hedge any bets though. Overall, after Monday the rest of the week outside of any of those remote shower chances won't reveal much of anything different that what you've experienced at your location the past several days until later in the week. 

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