"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Fall Will Creep In (If You Can Call It That)

(Delta II blasts off Friday at 8:10am from Cape Canaveral AFS)

I didn't leave a blog post there was no need to with the ever continuing prevalent nice weather on tap. It was perfect weather for the Delta II launch though. Today, no difference, although some gentle changes are in store beginning tonight through Tuesday which will be fun to monitor from a meteorological aspect, although from the weather watcher stand point it won't be very exciting (except maybe tomorrow as noted below). As of this writing, the latest model data has not come in yet, but I'm not expecting any earth shattering new info, so decided to go ahead and post anyway.
High pressure that has been dominant across the center of the state the past many days will sink to south Florida during the course of the day and be located near the southern tip of the state shortly after sunset. In response to this the steering currents will shift from the east to being from the west by around sunset tonight and then be prevalent through Wednesday from that direction. A surface cold front will sink Sunday from extreme North Florida into the Central peninsula during the course of the day which will be our only real rain chance mechanism for a shower or thunderstorm for many days to come as it lingers near the area during the afternoon. Anything that forms along this boundary will be shoved toward the east coast.

This front will linger just along or south of the area by late Sunday until a reinforcing shot hits on Tuesday and pushes the whole shebang south toward the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning. It will be Wednesday and Thursday mornings that we will see our first 'coolish, dryish' mornings of the fall season. That meaning a low temperature between 72-75 degrees and relative humidity below 75%...not saying much, but it is a change :-). It is the western half of the state that will feel the bigger temperature change, but not by much.

The folks on the west side of the state today might not see the big rains they've been receiving the past several days. Believe that as the steering currents shift, there will be a sea-breeze collision set up along the western interior, and it's likely that is where most of the rain will remain today..mostly from Lake down to Polk County..then along the western shores of Lake Okeechobee. As the steering currents start to shift tonight the extreme west coast from Sarasota north might be prone to nocturnal and early morning showers into Sunday though, which will be interesting to monitor.

All in all, by late Tuesday through the end of this upcoming week it appears it will be dry with lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the mid-80s. Onshore flow beginning Thursday afternoon will lead to moderate temperature rise to nearly the levels they've been the past few days. That far out, rain chance forecasting would be strictly tongue in cheek to be perfectly honest, so no point in trying this far out.