"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Increased Shower /Storm Coverage - 'Strongest' Late Afternoon toward 7PM

Storm 'Skirts'  West of Port Canaveral Tuesday Evening
 TODAY: Looks like a near 'classic' active summer type day   at least in terms of model guidance coupled with the morning KSC Sounding sampling of the local environment which likely is representative of most all of Central Florida.

Temperature and humidity running along the expected norms with early cloud development providing for some shade. East and west coast sea breezes will form but the west coast boundary should make a head start tracking east   much more quickly than the other way around given winds just about the deck to near the top of the height of the sea breezes is west to east at around 15kts  though winds aloft are average about 8-10kts for storm motion apart from propotagin outflows along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Any showers that form along the sea breezes earlier in the day will send out boundaries after they collapse and from there on out it will be a matter of Storm Stratego and who happens to be in the range of fire.

Given that 700MB temps are running a bit below 'usual' near 5C and 500MB temperatures are also running just a tad cool, could be some locally strong storms late today after peak heating has occurred and boundary interactions are multiplied which aids   lift in areas that have not been 'worked over' prior from either earlier showers or rain cooled out flows. 

Showers could well form along either sea breeze today given that the convective temperature is 87F and there is no  cap  with the PWAT up to 2.02" . (Precipitable water values). 

Slow storm motions with prorogation  back to the east coast and north/south along either sea breeze front  toward to after dark could mean some locations will possibly accumulate a large rainfall total over 1.5"   but exactly 'where' is hard to say. Seems most likely East South Central to East Central though - near the I-95 strip toward even US1 and near Okeechobee as well.  Storms could most likely move offshore with a preserved integrity from Central Volusia and north . Not all locations off course will see rain's all in the cards and what hand one has drawn to see how the dominoes will fall and play out which is typical summer fanfare.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: As is typical for summer patterns with no definitive upper level energy maxima or stronger upper level winds to note as   enhancing mechanisms for storm strength - yea  nary even much change in temperatures aloft,  even they could be just as active to not quite as active, might   evolve   from whatever results from out of the previous day in regard to where any boundaries are laid out. Thus, more of the same into the weekend, but each day will play out differently.

BEYOND: Much of the same with some variations in the routine beginning of next week but possibly coming right back to more of the same toward the middle of the week as the surface to mid-level ridge axis now near Far South Florida oscillates toward South Central or even Central and then back south again.

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