"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Two Options - Two Forecasts - One Day (Florida)

Shows Mesoscale Analysis of a 700mb low though weak, over Central
Florida this morning partly responsible for morning rains. The Main Low
remains back over Louisiana. Trough connect the two lows.
 That 'low' over Florida at 700mb is mainly only a manifestation, or part,
of the same Low over Louisiana
TODAY: Difficult forecast as two scenarios are being depicted that could unfold. Depending on which one (if either) does, completely changes who will get what, where, and when. 

OPTION 1:  Thunder storm trigger in SE Gulf Moves into  SW Florida and advects toward Lake Okeechobee while slowly lifting north. Cloud cover is pretty bad today, so although temperatures aloft are colder today, not sure how much that will matter in regard to stronger storms being able to generate under far less than 'stellar' conditions than would be otherwise. The red in the image above shows a best guess at this early hour for where some stronger storms could occur. Under this scenario rain showers, though sparse, could occur about anywhere but more likely impact north and east toward Dead Central East Coast late in the day much like yesterday, only several hours sooner. 

The image above 'notes' that the low over Louisiana is expected to open up and merge toward Arkansas while the energy associated with it could drop south in to the Gulf and then eject toward Florida on Friday. This is shown in the next image. 

Otherwise, if this Option 1 pans out, there is a good chance of rain toward Tampa, Lakeland, Haines City to Lake Okeechobee with some isolated stronger activity, but the main mode of operation will be light to moderate rains.


The other option is that the faux 700mb low pictured in the other image hangs tight over the state. That combined with high pressure building south down the East coast of the U.S. could put the squeeze on the moisture and slosh it across main all areas north and near I-4 as shown in the purple and red. Any thunder would be elevated as instability is close to none in that area.

Further South though: If the low hangs tight the forecast for Tampa and Lakeland zones goes from good chance of rain and thunder to suddenly very little to none. On the other hand, the chance for thunder as shown above toward Central could increase due to circulation around ' said assuming low' which would change steering currents lat in the day to being from the SW-WSW (but slow) over Central Florida as instability could increase after and during peak heating.  In this OPTION we'll also downplay the likelihood of any strong storms out there to the point they'd be isolated so that it's not worth mentioning. There is a chance someone today could end up with big rainfall totals in this scenario. 

FRIDAY: Another Very Sticky forecast

FRIDAY: In this image is the new mid-level low in Arkansas with a pseudo warm front like feature composed of a wind shift line and vorticity streamers impacting East Central from early morning throughout the entire day. This means a lot of rain up and down the east coast particularly toward Brevard County.  Also note the black "X"s. Those would be energy pockets from the old low over Louisiana moving east toward Florida. By early-mid afternoon both the east coast features at 850mb and those lobes of energy at a high atmospheric level from the west at 700mb shown over the Gulf could mish-mash over the state making for a slosh fest. Time will tell, but if so, could rain almost all day Friday or Saturday.

SATURDAY: Depending on timing , Saturday could again be a mostly rainy day for Central Florida and perhaps not so much South Florida. 

SUNDAY: Latest guidance indicates the show might end as soon as Sunday now, with only a slight chance of light rain or a shower later in the day toward the east coast. Another weak impulse to pass over around Monday could generate clouds and some light right, but other than that we can close the chapter on this storm system's impact on Florida. Next will be the cooler air. Not 'cold', just cooler.

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