"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Near Record Highs Far East Central - Much Colder Friday / Rapid Turn Around Sunday

Sunrise Thursday, December 29, 2016, Cocoa Beach

TODAY: Cold front  - associated with Winter Storm Fortis now in the formative stages just near the coast of Virginia which will lift north to north-northeast and strengthen - is currently draped  near the Florida / Georgia Border having already pushed through the Western Panhandle where temperatures are falling through the 60Fs with a brisk NW wind. 

Meanwhile well south of the front toward I-4 and south, the entire day light hours will be spent ahead of the boundary  which marks the leading edge of  colder/drier air spilling southward.  Looks like areas south of I-4 will mainly see an  increase in cloud cover toward sunset and possibly a rain-shower after dark, with better rain chances north of I-4.

FRIDAY: Regardless , the wind shift associated with this incoming cold front should press across North Central to South Central between the hours of 8PM - 11PM or so, and be very close to a Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line near 9:15PM tonight. Wind will shift to NW and be gusty at times and quickly begin to dry out, but the temperature drop so far does not appear to be "Rapid" though will be noticeable immediately.  

Morning lows most areas south of I-4 will see mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50Fs from the Cape and and South nearer the immediate east coast , mainly east of US1.  So far the coldest low I've seen in Canaveral this 'fall-winter' season is around 51F-52F ish at my location, and this one so far does not look like it will get colder than that, if even. However, wind will be gusting through the early morning hours into the mid afternoon and slowly begin to wane late in the day Friday making it feel a bit too cool for splashing at the shore.

Due to the timing of the front and peak hours of cold air advection being during day time hours , Friday might be the all around coolest day yet regardless though, with afternoon highs north of Canaveral to Tampa line barely ekeing out of the upper 50Fs range, and if so only for a brief period of time. Coupled with a good breeze and gusts, it won't exactly be 'beach weather' tomorrow.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE): This day will see much lighter wind as the associated high pressure area building in behind the front will be at its nearest proximity, though north of the state. 

Thus, probably won't see 'prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow at play, but rather favoring the NW Quadrant of the state for the coldest air, even toward freezing near the I-10 and possibly colder pockets south toward Ocala.  

The immediate east coast will be similar to the previous morning but with much less wind baring any change in the circumstances which would bring old mercury down even lower. 

It's a wait and see thing. Regardless , by afternoon this day could be nearly 10F degrees warmer than Friday as the wind begins to swing to the east and  'air mass modification' begins a slow at first turn around to warmer and less dry.

SUNDAY - HAPPY NEW YEAR!: Full 'air mass modification' in  swing overnight Saturday night with Sunday dawning along the East Coast (New Year's Day) near the 70F mark at the beaches.  

Highs New Year's Day in the mid-upper 70Fs with a good southeast wind.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Much warmer again, well above average with possibly 'new record highs' on Tuesday. Only stickler here is a disturbance passing over head on Monday which could increase rain chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning in some locations, or even only cloud cover. Will keep watching Monday for chance of GFS is not consistent in how it is dealing with this day just yet.

NEXT TIME TO GET COLD?: Too soon to say. Could be around January 9th or so, or maybe not. GFS trends toward bringing boundaries this way and suddenly dampening them out across Central Florida one after the other. In other words, can't say. The latest GFS run which goes out to the 14th shows that Friday will be the coldest day until then (which will likely change).

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Saturday, December 17, 2016

All Eyes on Near Record Highs - Storms Possible Sunday

TODAY (SATURDAY): Slowly increasing moisture in moist southerly flow with slight onshore component early morning keeping the temperature near the east coast around 70F (and above) most locations from the Cape and south , east of or near US1, while other locations vary from the mid 50Fs to mid 60Fs elsewhere.  Some thin higher clouds streaming by should clear the area making for a partly cloudy afternoon with heating of the day. There 'might' be an increase in cloud cover late in the day toward Eastern parts due to moisture convergence, with even the NAM model implying showers to form, though suspect it's overblown in that regard.

SUNDAY: Continued veering of wind to due south, even a bit SSW . Temperatures most areas to reach the lower to even potentially mid 80Fs getting close to record levels for the date. Guidance continues to imply a chance of showers passing near the coast early in the day (though probably will for the most part remain offshore), as a powerful cold front that has put the 'deep freeze' on many parts of the country glides through the Deep South. High pressure over the Western Atlantic with its axis across South Central will put the brakes on that boundary though going into Sunday night somewhere close to or just south of the I-4 region.

Meanwhile, with continued moisture advection and warm temperatures, will see CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) reach up to around 1500 J/kg which is rather unusual for December. (IN summer it can reach over 4000 J/kg, but in winter it mostly is around 500 J/kg or below to non-existent, for comparison's sake).  Moisture convergence and decent low level lapse rates combined with increased low level helicity along the east coast of Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties combined with the instability could result in some thunderstorms (though isolated) over mainly East Central and perhaps parts of interior South Central. Was tempted to cry , 'Possibly Strong' !   but mid level lapse rates are forecast to be weak and wind fields aloft are too weak to truly justify that call, apart from a random fluke , non-zero chance .

MONDAY: Frontal boundary gets absorbed around the outer most fringes of the cold air mass over much of the country as high pressure centered well north of Florida moves east resulting in a light, easterly to variable wind flow for a time. All this will means is slightly cooler in the mornings  with less chance of rain ; however, cloud cover could become problematic for about 2 days as moisture along the old boundary will take some time to thin out.

Regardless, latest trends are for highs in the lower 80Fs, with even a chance of a shower, possibly a random thunderstorm inland this day,  but wouldn't put any bets on the thunder risk just yet. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Fairly benign pattern in place these days look  a bit like what the weather was like on Friday  with the chance of shower caveat thrown in, with a generally lighter easterly wind flow, some clouds, and above normal temperature regime but not record breaking, with morning/overnight showers possible close to the east coast south of the Daytona Beach area toward Miami. We might again need to watch for 'thunder' by Thursday afternoon as wind becomes more southerly by that time ahead of the next front that will be on the approach.

FRIDAY: Next front in question approaches the state but at time suspect it will undergo the same 'fate' as several have already so not taking the bait on any one model run at this point.  It appears the next front will pull  another Quick switcheroo around to an easterly wind shift behind the boundary (assuming it clears Central) to more easterly as the Jet Stream still will reside well north of the state rather than digger down to across or even south of Florida (necessary for the real cold air intrusions). 

CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: Too far out in time for accuracy. Model guidance has flipped around numerous times with yet the front after this upcoming front on Friday to  varying from a possible cold front passage and much colder to the front never quite getting here yet with not much change, to an increasingly wet period with storms possible, all of which directly imply that it's too soon to say what Christmas Day will be like at this point.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Showers or a Storm Today ,Cooler then Much Cooler Friday-Saturday

TODAY: Complicated series of  frontal boundaries to affect Florida today through late Thursday before clearing the area early Friday. Until then, latest guidance and surface observations shows a poorly organized 'cool front' type boundary across South Georgia as a pre-frontal trough . The 'True Cold Front' is still much further north and west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley to approach and pass through Central Florida and into South Florida early Friday to late Friday morning time frame.

Meanwhile, another muggy morning at hand before even sunrise, with temperature and dewpoints in the 70Fs. 

Greatest instability today should occur where least cloud cover can be maintained the longest into peak heating which appears will occur from just north of the I-4 south to parts of far South Central Florida.

Overlaying that instability is 'wind energy' , in this case, speed shear in the mid to upper levels to be most noted mainly north of I-4 to a line running from just north of Sebastian Inlet toward Clearwater, Florida. 

There is very little to no directional shear and temperatures aloft, though cool, aren't anything overly  abnormal. Latest Model Radar Simulations are not showing 'wide spread' storms today but a few of them are showing 'a storm or two' as far south as perhaps the Ft. Pierce (very late after dark) area with another somewhere 'near the  SR 528 zone across to Tampa along I-4 in the mid-afternoon time frame in the more 'favored area for a stronger storm'.
Areas to watch today might be more toward the West Coast from Sarasota and north, though the 4KM-NAM (in the latest run) shows a strong storm over or near Central/North Brevard late afternoon as well.

All in all would expect some increased cloudiness after the sun gets cooking with a chance of a quick moving storm and/or some showers south of I-4  (and north of I-4 earlier as current radar above shows) sometime  after 2pm through 6pm. Otherwise, another warm day.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The first 'prefrontal boundary' will be near Central Florida early Wednesday morning and it will be nearly 10F degrees cooler most areas as a result, than it is this Tuesday morning. Behind this boundary is drier air and slightly cooler (but barely) temperatures. All in all, the affect of this boundary will be a shift in wind direction and slightly drier air, but the real front will still be nearly 48 hours away. Chance of even a shower however it would appear on Thursday particularly parts of Central to South Florida but storms unlikely except perhaps near and south of the Lake Okeechobee region. No 'rain outs' anticipated and mainy areas during this time period will not see any rain at all.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: What had been heralded as what would have perhaps been 'the coldest yet of the season' has greatly diminished in it's 'cooling capacity' during the past three days per model trends and agreement between them. 

The Final Front-ier should be through near sunrise Friday (Central) though the latest NAM seems to imply...with not much of a cold blast at all. Though wind will be gusting from the NW-NNW most of Central will be seeing either mid- upper 40Fs toward  lower to mid 50Fs, warmest along the East Coast from the Cape and South. 

[If the latest NAM (North American Model) were to pan out, it might be even a bit warmer than that though, with lows mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs across most of Central Florida (but will discount it's 'warmth' for the time being). ]

Granted, about a week ago the GFS was showing mid- upper 30Fs where it is now showing  upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs for the same time frame.

Regardless, this might be , on the NAMs part, due to the slower timing of the frontal passage. Regardless, Friday looks to be a rather cool day all around with the high never reaching 70F except South Florida, even only lower to mid 60Fs for many areas? 

SUNDAY : Either way, agreement is that wind quickly will veer to NE-E and eventually perhaps to the ESE-SE by later on Sunday and decrease with a warm up at hand. The GFS shows no cold front passing through up to nearly December 21st (the first astronomical day of Winter) , at this point, but not set in stone by any means (though that is the latest trend .  

Regardless, does look like from Sunday for the following week temperatures will run above normal once gain, and remaining dry for the most part.

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