"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 17, 2012

Considerable Cloudiness Today, Possible Showers Central Later

Morning satellite image indicates clouds at various atmospheric levels passing from west to east when animated. There are some patches of light rain within the clouds, mostly north of I-4 and heavier activity well west into the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this activity could impact Central Florida later today in mid-evening as the surface cold front looses identity and sinks south toward at least Southern Brevard, although it is possible it will not get quite that far south. Heaviest activity (if any) should be restricted to Central proper especially after 2-3pm.

TODAY: Very little change in reasoning from yesterday's post first and foremost. Frontal boundary across far north Florida is being elongated from east to west as the parent low pressure area moves off well to the north near Nova Scotia, with little 'forcing' along the boundary way south of that low in Florida.  The frontal boundary will sink into Central Florida later today.The exact location should not hold much weight either way as far as how its southern extent penetrates, although showers are most likely where-ever it tends to halt any further southward progression. For the most part, there has been little change in reasoning with the GFS model continuing to take the boundary as far south as Southern Brevard if not a bit further after sunset tonight. With that, it would not be unreasonable to expect that some rain could fall across Central Florida from mid-afternoon through late evening, especially Central heading toward early evening. Some thunder is 'possible' but doubtful.

Light green shows area for best rain chance. Note that the front extends in this depiction from low pressure near Nova Scotia with a new low forming along the tail end along the Texas Gulf Coast. It is that low pressure and the attendant cold front that could make for more active weather on Sunday

SATURDAY: The new area of low pressure moves toward North Georgia with breezier conditions materializing by mid-afternoon. It appears clouds will still be present with sufficient moisture, but no rain due to no triggering mechanisms, other than perhaps a few light sprinkles. Winds begin to increase over night as the front draws closer. The front across Florida lifts north and becomes a warm front well north of the state.

SUNDAY: Cold front now crossing the state. Winds from the SW at 20mph at least, clouds, and some showers and possible thunderstorms (potentially close to severe due to strong winds) will move through from early day through sunset, crossing Central Florida during the mid-afternoon toward late day. It is during that passage the better chance for stronger storms is possible. It will not be an all out rainy day by any means as noted yesterday due to the rather fast forward motion of the system. I've drawn in a quick and dirty version of where there is a potential (for purposes only of this unofficial blog) of where the stronger activity could occur (this is not a given, for awareness purposes only).
Orange, possible thunder ; Red, possible stronger / severe storms due to wind , fast moving 

LATE SUNDAY: The front and associated rainfall potential will have cleared Central Florida before sunset and will have cleared the state by mid-late evening on Sunday. Winds then become NW and filter in cooler/colder , drier air.

MONDAY: NNW-N winds as morning works into early afternoon, becoming NNE-NE by early evening. Morning lows at the coast 46-52F and colder inland and north. The entire state will be effected by this cold 'shot', but as noted previously..this one will not be for long. In fact, by Tuesday morning the temperature at the beaches could be warmer than they will be at  10pm the previous evening (Sunday Night) from Cape Canaveral and south.

BEYOND: Not significant weather of note heading through mid-week. 

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