"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Showers Along East Coast After Midnight through At Least Noon Thursday

Can't Get Close Enough For a Front Row Seat at Sunrise
TODAY: Another dry and warm day with very little wind across most of Florida , but some changes appear to be on the way. A frontal boundary will drop south from the north into Central Florida from before through after sunset this evening   Wind will shift to north to northeast to East northeast over the following 12 hours bringing in deeper atmospheric moisture.

TONIGHT: It will be a good 6-9 hours post-fropa (frontal passage) before any rain shower chances (for the most part) enter the picture. Suspect most areas that will receive rain will be east of I-95 until a few hours after sunrise as a weak coastal trough might set up coupled with potentially more stabilized air mass during the overnight hours over the inland regions. 

The coast's proximity to warmer waters plus what 'might' be a weak coastal trough aiding in convergence could give rise to showers moving in. Temperatures aloft will be rather cold and steering from the NNW-N might limit inland extent of activity initially. Hard to say if we'll be hearing any thunder but suspect there will be some isolated instances. 

Overall, appears the majority of rainfall tomorrow will occur over the East half of the state at least until mid afternoon.

THURSDAY: Again, rain chances appear could commence 'here and there' mainly near Ormond Beach and south toward Vero Beach sometime after 2AM and might be in place well toward noon time to 2pm. Eventually working further south. Rains could mostly be over with by mid afternoon (if not sooner) but hard to say for certain. Showers or increasing cloud cover may well work across the state as well a few hours after sunrise.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Easterly flow and drying to occur north half of state by late afternoon and more of the state for Friday through Sunday. Morning lows in the mid-60Fs along the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs as wind will eventually decrease from 15mph gusting to 25mph (tomorrow into Friday) to around 10mph by Sunday. Partly cloudy to at times only a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

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Monday, March 13, 2017

Increasing Clouds/Rain Chances - Possible Strong - Severe Storm Late

Peacocks in the Tree Tops - Cape Canaveral Sunday Morning
TODAY: Second of two impulses (the weaker one yesterday) to cross the state near I-4 this evening. Latest guidance implies the potential for weak surface reflection of the disturbance to take the form of a fast moving but weak surface low associated with a developing frontal boundary.

Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover approaching all but far South Florida as of 10AM so areas in Central that are still seeing blue sky, the time will be drawing nigh for that to go away, maybe by the time this post is seen.

Otherwise, weak surface front pushed south yesterday but lifting back north will result  in more southerly wind going into the afternoon as opposed to the ENE wind earlier this morning. The next disturbance is still well west of the state but will be pressing quickly east late today and over night.

Latest 4KM NAM, NAM, and HRRR models all show a variety of 'potential situations' in regard to   severe weather. The HRRR is consistent with implying one or two rotating storms to cross near 'Dead Central ' or 25 miles either side of line from Tampa Bay to Canaveral sometime from late afternoon through toward the 9pm time frame.

Another shows something similar with one rotating storm coming in near Tampa Bay and peaking out near Kissimmee / St Cloud that rapidly weakens as it moves east toward Brevard.

Granted, such 'radar depictions' (and associated parameters) can't be trusted in regard to specifics, but that they show them at all bears watching. 

The NAM shows potent bulk shear values from 850mb through the 500mb level and even some bulk shear down to the lowest 2000 ft as a result of directional  and speed shear in the wind fields as one goes up in height.  Such shear values I'd think would warrant at least a 'heads up' mode and have shown so in the image below.

Instability, on the other hand, as typical for this time of year will be poor, and as a result the chance of severe is not great enough to warrant more than a marginal risk of severe for mainly west central Florida.

For Blog Purposes will include all of Central more or less just in case of a surprise pop up storm . Though even these wind fields are showing on the NAM they might be over done, but if not, the risk might well be warranted and a subsequent outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at noon or later today might show that potential as well. 

OTHERWISE: Outside of the chance of rain and maybe an isolated storm or two, the bigger story will be the 'return to January' come Wednesday/Thursday.  

TUESDAY: Front to clear Central around early to mid morning with NW winds of around 15mph or so. Cold air won't be on the way quite yet; this boundary will mainly dry the air out, freshen things up, and leave things comfortable until sunset approaches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Secondary boundary to surge through heralding even drying air and colder air as well. 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Quite breezy with winds 18G28 with lows in mid-upper 40Fs to maybe low 50Fs out on the Barrier Islands. Highs on Wednesday will be hard pressed to reach 60F north of I4 and might barely reach it even further south; though warmer the further south one goes. 

THURSDAY: Wind will weaken somewhat going into Thursday with temperatures well below normal all day. Highs to read the lower- mid 60Fs so nicer.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Progressively warmer each day, with light wind and no rain chances.

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Saturday, March 11, 2017

Rain/Thunder Chance Sunday - Tuesday : Winteresque Wednesday

White Egret / The Cove at Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Old frontal boundary that slid through last evening has lost steam across South Florida. Chance of a shower or two mainly far SW Florida today. Otherwise, light easterly wind today and sunny to partly cloudy with pleasant temperatures. Might see an increase in cloud cover near the east coast for East Central as satellite imagery does show the potential for more clouds to advect onshore (see image below).  

REMINDER: Daylight savings time begins at 2AM Sunday morning.

TONIGHT: Old boundary will be drawn back north in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the west. The boundary will act as a 'warm front' more or less and appears might lift back as far north as a Cedar Key - Ormond Beach line , though how far north it actually gets will be important in regard to how far north a 'thunder chance' will exist on Sunday. Will ride with that for now.

SUNDAY: Net affect of the lifting boundary will be for increasing moisture (from yesterday's and today's rather parched conditions) and increasing cloud cover going into mid afternoon. Surface based instability looks meager at best but for near the east coast, but cold air aloft will be present coupled with mid-upper level 'energy' (vorticity) in association with the first disturbance. Exactly when the effect of said disturbance will be realized (and there might be more than even two of them going into Tuesday) is hard to say, but for Central to Southern parts of Florida appears it could be as soon as noon to as late as 3-4PM. The later  the better chances of thunder chances. Either way, increasing cloud cover and at least rain chances increase later on Sunday but not for everyone.

MONDAY: Not all said and done just yet. Cold front still 36 hours away at least as yet another disturbance gets kicked by over-heard. This day might see much more cloud cover, and precipitation timing is much less certain though late morning to evening almost anytime is possible at this point. Again, chance of thunder. If better heating is realized this day, might see an isolated strong storm or two.

TUESDAY: yet again like Monday with still a rain chance for Central up to early afternoon or so. The latest guidance seems to imply a frontal passage sometime early evening or just before dark when much drier air and NW wind brings in a taste of early February to the air.

WEDNESDAY: Cool start with interior lows in the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to 50-54F beaches. Rather breezy NW wind dying down some toward sunset. Below normal afternoon highs - this time of year gets tricky as sometimes models under-estimate how warm it could get. GFS implies barely breaking 60F degrees this day, though numerical guidance has no problem with mid-upper 60Fs. Wouldn't be surprised however if was only see a 64F at best.

" Hey, Who Forgot to Close the Refrigerator Door ?!"

THURSDAY: Much cooler yet still with lows in mid-40Fs and upper 40Fs to near 52F beach side. Highs perhaps around 65F - 68F? (but at least the wind will not be an issue)

FRIDAY -INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Continued very cool mornings but at least the wind will be close to NIL or only very light by this time, even Thursday. Warming into the afternoons from lower 70Fs heading toward upper 70Fs by the end of the weekend. No rain foreseen at this rate for NEXT weekend.

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Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Normal To Above Temperatures From Today into Next Week - Rain Chances Included

Bee on Aloe Stalk - This Day last year

TODAY : Wind becoming more southerly today, mainly ESE-SE and decreasing as we head toward sunset (most notably) and even more so heading toward midnight. East Central has a big 'cloud patch' over it as of mid-late morning (see below) but that might burn off or move out going into early afternoon. A few light showers shouldn't be much of an issue. Had a trace earlier at this location.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY : By Wednesday morning wind near calm or light all areas. Wind was light to calm in some regions of the state this morning but for the east coast. Much less wind all areas all day on these days and from there on out. A frontal boundary will work to North Florida in the morning and enter into Central Direct by later in the day. How far south it gets is still in question. The NAM model never gets it much further south than I-4 whereas the GFS, though it has backed off some as of the 1AM model run, continues to take the front down to the Big Lake region more or less after night fall. Exactly how far it gets will determine where rain chances will remain for Thursday.

For now will go with The NAM (North American Model) which I wouldn't normally due, but suspect the GFS might be latching on to the NAMs notions. That given, with cold air aloft and boundary undergoing frontolysis somewhere across Central coupled with rather cold air aloft, combined with sea breeze convergence with respectable heating of the day, might be able to squeeze up some thunder after all is said and done late in the day somewhere over the interior of Central or South Central depending on where the boundary collapses on Thursday, though more than likely only some showers (or increased cloud cover) would be the net effect. Instability is seriously lacking in any regard either day.

BEYOND: Going into weekend, even if the front does get to South Florida we recover our loses further north in the following 36 hours, and as a result warmer over the weekend with interior highs in the lower and maybe some mid-80Fs with upper 70Fs to near 80F closer to the mark at the immediate beaches. Standard far winds as they become southwest on Sunday ahead of the next front. Chance of sea breeze convergence showers might dwindle for the most part though we might still see some cloudiness as a result of the boundary with light showers possible.

NEXT WEEK: Precision is not the rule of the day yet in regard to when and where, but the trend has been for increasing rain chances as another frontal boundary attempts to make the swoop but can't really pull it off. The trend has been for the next front and the one thereafter several days later to lose steam somewhere across North to Central Florida but that is pure conjecture at this point. 

Just exactly where these boundaries find the frontal graveyard to be cannot be determined this far out. Either way, little chance in temperatures from the 'upward to normal trend' is foreseen, even out to around March 14th at least over the past few runs of the GFS. Noting however, that previous runs have showed even a boomerang back to early February like temperatures for a few days, but whether that will ever come into being is pure fantasy at this point in time.

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Thursday, March 2, 2017

Much Cooler and 'Briskly' On the Way Later Today

Paddling To the Light at Sunrise  Wednesday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold front on the way into North Central Florida at time (11:45AM). The Frontal Boundary is expected to be near a Cape Canaveral to  South Tampa Bay line sometime around 4:00- 4:30PM as it progresses further south. 

Temperatures in the lower (to possibly mid) 80Fs could see a drop of 12F - 17F post 'frontal passage' from the time of the front's passage to within an hour afterward. Thus, for example, temperature at 4pm of 81F might be a breezy 67F just a few hours later .   Some cloud cover to accompany the boundary and possible some showers though looks like any showers might be restricted to an around of near Vero Beach and south (in general but no exclusively )  

With frontal passage wind will also make an abrupt shift to NNW-N and evenutally NNE.

Better shower chances today south of the 'Green line"
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Though temperatures will drop into the 60Fs post -frontal passage, they won't drop that much more along the east coast from the Cape and South due to the rapid return of NE flow after dark this evening; yet will be rather 'briskly' gusting to around 20-25mph going into Friday with possibly still cloudy or partly cloudy sky at times especially up until late morning, Friday. 

Afterward, highs on Friday  mid-upper 60Fs near/north of I4 and near 70F from near Canaveral to Tampa and South -yet even warmer further south into the interior and toward the SW quadrant of the state.

SATURDAY: Wind to become more easterly with  lows in the morning lower 60Fs along the immediate east coast with mid-upper 50Fs elsewhere. There are pointers that suggest a slug of 'deeper' moisture and increased cloud cover, at least for a period of the day could move onshore accompanied by cloud cover and possibly some showers   in some locations. Highs again to remain cool, but cloud cover and any precipitation (or lack of it) could make a good 5F degree difference in how cool it might be at any given location.

SUNDAY: Wind begins to shift to ESE. Sunday will be the nicest day between late today through Saturday in the temperature plus wind  combined arena. Wind to die down a bit as highs return to seasonal norms but could still be considered 'breezy', especially at the beaches.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Even  warmer yet still as next front approaches. So far, indications are the next front will not be much different in regard to how temperatures will be affected from the one currently knocking on the I-4 Corridor's Door this hour. Mostly anticipate another quick wind shift with the front with little in the 'rain arean' to accompany the next front as well.

Thus, no 'sig temp drops' expected for the next 7-10 days. Though it does not look like we'll be seeing any record warmth either or even much of an 80F degree reading (at least not at the beaches) --  more like near to just above the norm especially in regard to the morning lows (not so much for the afternoon highs though)..with very little chances of rainfall, at least not predictably so other than possibly today and sometimes Saturday.

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