|Frontal Boundary to Make Slow Southward progress Today|
TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown will move very little today southward as much as it will slide East to ESE-ward. Heating of the day in combination could help it to actually lose identity completely before the day is through. It is not so much a front going through as much as it is high pressure building eastward across the Gulf of Mexico that will essentially "consume" it. Thus, even with northwesterly winds aloft tomorrow, those will be due solely to clockwise circulation around the top of the high descending southward ahead of it, along with drier continental air, with surface winds more westerly, with a possible late day sea breeze quickly becoming westerly again after sunset.
In regard to today, given there is 'some' moisture around mainly in the lower levels though, it will take some form of low level convergence to 'squeeze upward that moisture to cloud and rain bearing heights'. There is the boundary proper, but also it appears a very shallow sea-breeze will form by early afternoon along the "Barriers", but more so toward the intracoastals after 4pm with side shore parallel mainly winds since winds just above the deck around 2000 ft will remain strong enough to keep a deeper sea breeze from making inland progress. It should be safe to say the west coast sea breeze willthus work its way a bit inland from their coast.
The issue today is 1) depth of dry air aloft 2) Cirrus clouds in bands coming on the approach which could put the most minute damper on low level instability, we'll need ever ounce we can get to generate the lifing mechanisms. 3) overall lack of moisture except where there is convergence of moisture through the lower 5000 ft north of Lake Okeechobee. Thus, the better chances of a thunderstorm appears to be late today and after 5:30pm IF there is not a lot of skimpy showers around before that time which would hog up what instability there is.
Possibilities: It does look like anything that can go up, even a rain shower, could send out flow boundaries radially in all directions, with possible showers near the front, and earlier activity over South and SE Florida into portions of South Central as well up to Ft. Pierce along the Lake breeze shadow...there could be outflow boundary mergers east central later today. The other issue is that even if so, would those boundaries undercut with their associated cooler air any potential updrafts to which they are drawn into? If so, those updrafts would be pulling in cooler air and get stifled and die. Chances are, any remnant boundary will be the harbinger of things to come later on..but first things first..to get something going.
Best chance for thunder as shown, but more so along the east coast from the Cape to Ft Pierce to West Palm to MIA International. to Key Biscayne. South could go earlier with better moisture as well as something at the front itself, with far East Central latest after 5Pm, Titusville/Port St John, North Merritt Island, Frontenac/North Cocoa to Rockledge and inland toward eastern Osceola County to Eastern MCO to Sanford. Further south, around the Lake Shadow/Vero.Ft Pierce/ West Palm...and further south east of the Ever Glades. All locations north of West Palm though are pretty much the squeezing water out of a rock type situation. Any sudden influx of drier air and all is gone as in written in the wind and out the window gone.
BEYOND: Warmer and warmer each day, mainly Monday/Tuesday and possible Wednesday with WSW-W winds and zero sea breeze one or two days possibly. Warmest on that day (s) near the east coast and barrier islands..with highs in the mid 90Fs to 97F possible..Rain chances look to remain near I- 10 in coming days toward I-4 east coast as a frontal boundary sinks south but when and how far south it will eventually go and get has flunk-tuated between getting far enough south to increase rain chances elsewhere between Wednesday and Thursday..if not later Tuesday. By tomorrow this time we'll have a much better grasp on that monkey.