|Preliminary Estimation of best rain chances today|
Early Today guidance is coming into better agreement though and seems to be changing in the short-term model with every subsequent out put like a compiling computer program trying to reach a point of completion. But it will be never-ending for several days here on out.
Chances are, after morning sounding data is taken and extrapolated and fed into that model things will change again, but even more so tonight and tomorrow as that trough finally pulls into station. Hopes are that by the end of the day we won't be crying "Wolf!", as this post is a bit 'ad hoc' for all intensive and extensive purposes. Upper lows to drift west today taking the shown trough located in the upper levels with it and across Florida. There are adjustments in the lower levels as well though, with our easterly winds becoming more SE to SSE mid to late day, and steering becoming more southerly to SSW south of Lake Okeechobee especially after 5pm as far north as northern South Central (South of the Beachline Magic Dividing Line zone). Better lapse rates for thunderstorm generation will materialize from SSE toward the NNW during the day beginning mid-late morning spreading to South Central zones by 5pm or 6pm. Sea breeze convergence, rather lack there off north of Lake Okeechobee, is a mitigating factor pretty much everywhere except perhaps earlier to mid-afternoon activity that might get going near the Lake breeze interactions.
Further north, storms 'could' work north both with and ahead of the trough (s) due to propagating outflows meeting the previously already established east coast sea breeze. A late day collision of sorts could occur over Polk County or west toward Tampa, but the better instability will remain along the eastern half of the state nearer the trough axis and better lapse rates above, and most of far Southwest Florida . Since this is a big transition day as highlighted previously, especially toward dark, some activity could continue post-sunset - post dark toward NW Florida whereas other areas might get worked over or in general no longer remain favorable for storms, not to say isolated activity could not re-occur, especially South Florida.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: The pattern shift reaches near completion almost never, as the trough continues to move west and into the Gulf pulling moisture northward on its backside. In general though, light SW to NE steering develops by Monday afternoon through the remainder of the week, while the TUTT SAL SALT AIR MASS continues west , now already having infiltrated the Puerto Rico area. Latest guidance has slimmed down a bit on the impacts overall to the state of that air-mass, except toward and south of Lake Okeechobee.
On the other-hand, lapse rates and surprisingly the GFS shows this, will supposedly become more favorably supportive of strong to severe storms, albeit quite, quite isolated. Tuesday and especially Wednesday shine through on the GFS, as it rarely shows high degrees of instability over Florida, let alone 4 days in advance. Central Florida overall seems to be the location for such activity on Tuesday and Wednesday, but no one area will be immune from rain chances through Tuesday or even Wednesday, with activity likely starting out in most robust fashion along the Lake/Sea breeze zone of Northern Palm Beach/Martin/St Lucie/Indian River Counties working northward up a delayed sea breeze.
It will become quite summer like (as if...), humid, and hot for the beach folks given the delayed sea breeze anticipated. In short, this pattern is a bit rare for this time of year over South and Central Florida, so we can expect the unexpected for a few days here and there and just about anywhere.