"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Infamous Front Still on Tap for Monday, Possible Showers Today

Very Small Chance of mid-late afternoon showers East Central or
some increasing cloudiness into sunset time frame
TODAY: Ironically, it appears the post from Friday is more likely to come closer to reality than the one on Saturday as it is the GFS run on that day that is now verifying; therefore using a blend of that run plus current conditions yields increasing low level clouds SE Quadrant of state and possibly some showers as far north as Cape Canaveral up through sunset time frame beginning after 3pm  with highs in the mid 70Fs but warmer away from clouds. Very light winds all day.

TONIGHT: SW winds to develop over night will make for a somewhat cool 'land breeze morning' along the coast in the 60Fs most areas and moist, might need to watch from some morning fog or mist as cold front approaches but a quick warm up after sunrise.

MONDAY: GFS has been finagling between a 10AM or 1PM frontal passage the past 4 runs, but will stick with a 1PM time frame and possibly up it toward High Noon Dead Central. Giddy's coming with all barrels loaded and there's no stopping the caboose from pulling through station hauling a load of very dry air to arrive about 6 hours behind the Engine going by around 20-30 mph  with plenty of cargo cloud coverage. The warm start to the day will come upon the winds of this infamous system that all the presses are hollering about, and rightly so, but more so for folks further north. 

High temperatures Central and South could reach the lower through mid 70Fs prior to frontal passage (fropa) depending on the timing issue, but toward I-4 frontal passage will be going through regardless before any true daytime heating can   get started. Little to no rain expected with the front.  The temperature could fall a good 16-22 degrees across North Central - Central from 1pm through 4pm then level off a bit until around midnight with the first hour after fropa possibly as much as 17F degrees depending on the timing issue.

Image shows the possible cold front position Monday at 1PM per the latest  installment of the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model run.
Other runs have showed a similar position though at 10AM instead.
The 'boxed' number denotes the forecast temperature, based on the colored zones

TUESDAY: Temperatures falling more steadily after midnight with the dry dewpoint air now in place. Dew Points could be in the single digits portions of interior North Central to low double digits most other locations.  Hard Freeze possibly North and Western Volusia and into Lake, with a freeze possible toward the Orlando Metro area. There still remains the chance of some thin high cirrus or cirrus stratified type clouds making Tuesday a possibly grey-ish day ,  cold and breezy. Highs running the 40Fs gamut to the 50Fs for South Central portions and South Florida. Breezy from the NW all day around 18 mph gusting to near 30 mph but decreasing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY: Wind still appears  will begin to veer to a slight onshore component south of the Cape with a slow warming trend commencing after 2AM Canaveral and South early Wednesday morning. By sunrise temperatures should be running in the mid 50Fs if that is correct at the beaches, but if not, it would be significantly colder. 

Regardless, an onshore component wind  should be in full swing by mid morning with temperatures warming nearly a good 20F degrees by afternoon from that of Tuesday, but not as warm as those that will be in place prior to frontal passage on Monday.  Increasing coastal startocumulus clouds accompanying the onshore wind component but doubt will see any rain other than maybe a drop or tiny two on a windshield, should keep the high temperature restricted to the mid 60Fs range.

THURSDAY: Back to as if a front never went through at all as the tail end of Monday's front will have lifted to Central. Possibly a chance of showers and maybe even thunder (off shore) over the Gulf Stream waters. It appears the best chances for showers, some maybe heavy,  will be about the same areas noted in the first graphic above for today. 

Another front will be on the approach, but it is at this point where the GFS  begins to fall into fail mode most consistently. Still watching though for some form of severe weather or just plain heavy rainfall totals across the I-10 of the Deep South toward maybe even I-4, with less amounts further south.

Long range for now, and for what it is worth which usually isn't much, has been signaling no big freezes, but rather some prolonged very cool weather  instead as high pressure gets centered closer to FLorida than it has yet to do this entire winter. Time will tell.

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