|Sunrise - Cape Canaveral, FL This Morning|
TODAY: Nothing is cut and dry today. Appears surface front that was stretched across Southern Florida yesterday is trying to retrograde back north, buckling in response to a short wave midlevel trough gliding across the Deep South during the afternoon. How far it will buckle and remain so is the big question.
Currently, there is a respectable chance of storms as far north as North Brevard mainly along to west of US1, but how long those favorable conditions will remain is uncertain. Therefore, have drawn the area in to cover the bases.
Otherwise, the better chance of activity will again be from near the Vero or Ft Pierce latitude and south mainly along the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee just in from the coast. Noting that as of the past two hours the Mesoscale analysis page is actually showing the most unstable conditions to be over Brevard County by some parameters (but this might only be temporary until the sea breeze kicks in).
TONIGHT: GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the boundary pivoting back in time toward the NW like the large minute hand of a clock going back in time...putting most of the peninsula in favorable rain chance conditions for Friday afternoon. The first to realize this effect might be along the immediate east coast in as far inland as I-95 overnight toward sunrise from Brevard into Southern Volusia County. Such conditions will remain until early afternoon after which point rains might shift further inland. The rain chance tomorrow goes down for far South Florida.
|"The current pattern as been sitting pretty, but will soon...."|
BEYOND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Though moisture will be abundant, the better chances for rains at this time appear to remain just inland from the immediate east coast, more toward over and west of I-95 and to the west coast. But the pressure pattern is fairly weak in this next phase to last 2-3 days before a leaning toward the east side becomes apparent. All in all, back to the day by day basis scenarios Though every day might seem the same in the summer, they really are not at all. Especially when it can be observed that patterns tend to last in 2-3 day cycles in general outside of extenuating circumstances.