"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Lower Chance Of a Potent Late Day Storm or Two East Side

TODAY: KSC sounding came in with a similar temperature profile as yesterday aloft, and wind profile comparable to the late day sounding as well. The only difference is less readily available moisture. Two questions today is will the sea breeze truly manifest and if so how far inland will it progress. The other negating factor (other than less moisture aloft) is cirrus clouds far offshore that might work their way across a part of the state during peak heating. OTHERWISE, under the pretense that the sea breeze penetrates at least as far as US1 (from Brevard County and south) which might be a tough one and cirrus do not get too thick, there is a chance of a fluke freak storm again today primarily from North Brevard area and south toward Vero Beach in general after 5pm IF a storm can punch the drier air in the mid levels.  

The west coast sea breeze has already kicked in and is beginning it's eastward march to the Atlantic coast while land breezes persist on the east coast. Noting that the GFS now coming in is showing close to no activity today much of anywhere, though some is already in progress, so went more with the RAP guidance .    Thus, today's post might be overly generous on the rainfall coverage and intensity.

Very general outline for thunder chances in Orange though might have
been able to extend it further North or South. Main thing
watching for today is something 'like' what occurred yesterday
LATE in the day but not with as much coverage 
MONDAY: So far, driest day even yet still. The GFS shows today and tomorrow to be very similar in rainfall areas, with one spot near North Brevard and the other over far SE Florida, but with less coverage.


TUESDAY: Cold front to work toward North Florida. Increasing rain chances north of a Sebastian Inlet to South side of Tampa Bay in general. 


WEDNESDAY: Greater rainfall and storm coverage again, though this time mainly SOUTH of a line running from DAB (Daytona Beach) to Tampa Bay.

"Yesterday Once More"

BEYOND: Front shown to make it into South Central Florida (at least) and linger in that general area for two days near Lake Okeechobee , then as mentioned yesterday, lifting back north as broad low pressure takes shape over the Deep South in nearly the same location as it was located several days ago. All in all, the state remains in SW-W flow aloft, with steering toward the east. Finer details on frontal location will determine where rain chances will exist Wednesday-Thursday but suspect at this point it will be the south half of the state or from near Cape Canaveral and south for two days before state wide coverage again enters the picture closer to the end of the week and into next weekend. 

We might not see a sea breeze at all on the east coast come Tuesday which might put a damper on storm strength but time will tell, but which could mean some 'extra warm' high temperatures (like today and again tomorrow will be for those at the immediate east coast beaches).

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