"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Coldest Today through Thursday Night - Gradual Warm Up Through Weekend

Image shows a forecast for 2 meter morning low temperatures Thursday morning. We see a vast expanse of freezing or near freezing degree temperatures over Central / South Florida toward Lake Okeechobee and west-southwest toward Sarasota/Naples. Warmest location Thursday morning from near Cocoa Beach south along A1A to Miami (increasingly warmer the further south one gets toward Miami/Venice/Keys).

TODAY: Morning low at my place was 40F while MLB was showing 42F with similar readings on the west side of the state at the same latitude. In comparison, the panhandle was in the mid-upper 20F's with much drier dew point air. Forecast of yesterday remains on track so not much to add this morning. Second cold front is still clearing extreme South Florida this morning with the final one, composed of the driest of air crossing the state today and also clearing the state by tonight. Driest and coldest of air for this event will occur (for the most part) Thursday morning.

But for today, little change throughout the day as a continuous stream of surface wind from the NW ushers the final 'front' through (consisting of greater extensive drying at all atmospheric levels more than anything else). There are some cirrus streams over head, but they will gradually shift south of Central Florida during the afternoon. Extreme South Florida has some stratus clouds abundant (being still ahead and along the second front). Continuous feed (cold air advection) throughout the day will keep the afternoon temperature very close to the 50F degree isotherm along 520 to Tampa Bay within 2-3 degrees, with mid 50s increasing to upper 50s further south and finally low-mid 60s across the Keys. Winds NW at 15mph perhaps gusting to 25mph along the causeways and near open bodies of water elsewhere.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: Final thrust of the cold air arrives with advection freezing level temperatures very close to US1 at sunrise. The Barrier Islands should escape a short-duration freeze tonight with mainly mid 30s as a NNW wind blows down the intracoastal waterways along their length. Again, warmest along A1A from Port Canaveral - Miami and warmer the further south, but still pretty cold down there for them. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday will again be similar to what we will feel today, but do believe it will be 3-6F degrees warmer than today under full sunshine.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: Phase 1 of initially only gradual warm up begins, especially at the coast as winds become due north and eventually NNE-NE into Friday. Coastal lows in the mid-upper 40s but continued much cooler/cold in the morning west of I-95 over and down toward Sarasota. Afternoon high Friday in the low-mid 60s with some patchy clouds or close to 10F degrees warmer on Friday than what will be reached Thursday afternoon. The area around Miami may even see a rain shower before Friday is over, but that remains a big question mark in my mind with a great temptation to squash that notion altogether.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Phase II warm up. Coastal lows by Saturday morning might not be much different from what the temperature will be at sunset Friday night up and down the east coast as winds become more easterly and eventually southeast during the weekend. Coolest afternoons east of US1 but upper 60s and low 70s will be the rule Saturday. Warmer away from the coast. No big rain events, or any rain at all for that matter through the weekend as the warming trend expands in coverage of real estate statewide returning to seasonable norms Sunday. Stratocumulus clouds likely to become an ever-increasing factor for afternoon high temperatures in some locations but extensive overcast conditions not anticipated currently, but does bear watching for the east coast from the Cape and points south as we go into the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday.

TUESDAY: Perhaps the warmest day yet with very mild, non-impact temperatures in either the freezing or sweltering category as winds shift from southeast to eventually southwest over night Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. We should lose the onshore component wind on Tuesday which will permit us to feel the warmest temperatures, albeit cooler than west of the rivers due to the cooling affect of wind blowing across water.

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