"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 25, 2013

Storms Remotely Possibly Later/ Temps Go Down Hill Later in Week

Radar around 2:30AM This Monday morning. Most of this action is related to an 'elevated warm front above 5000 feet. Some severe reports have come in from this activity in the form of a few hail reports. Radar now looks not nearly as active in this same area..nonetheless, activity seems to have shifted east more toward JAX '
 TODAY: Really not much change from yesterday's post. To sum it up, it appears a shallow warm front at the surface significantly 'tilt's toward the north with the main axis of action along the 3000-5000 ft level near I-10 as can bee seen above and depicted below

See note above: Could be light showers almost anywhere, but cloud coverage has really put a damper across Central and North Central. REGARDLESS: Wind fields are favorable for  severe weather across the entire south half of the state ALTHOUGH, there is a tornado watch much further north across North Florida. Moisture fields though are pitiful across South Florida to Support storms (so far today)
THIS AFTERNOON: The best instability and wind fields are south of the surface front. There might be a trigger moving in from the west over the gulf which so far, if the model is correct, is showing no action associated with it which makes the model suspect. Regardless, rare as it would be this time of year, with the boundary in place and good heating for this time of year, a shower or even storm could go up under what above is is strong Speed Shear accompanied by some directional wind shear as well despite the presence of high clouds, and rare part being a sea breeze convergence type initiation which is rare for March. The best chance for a strong storm would be after 2:30pm until around 7pm as it looks now though there is no statements out regarding any such chance at the present time, officially.

TUESDAY: As noted in the previous post, a cold front will usher through Central Florida in the late afternoon Tuesday, and so far it looks to go through with little fanfare although thunderstorms I do see are in the forecast (to be forewarned despite what this blog post reads).

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Gradual temperature drops each day with the biggest drops being Friday and then again Sunday. So far, as it looks now, temperatures on Sunday could be about 22-28 degrees cooler than what we saw this morning and are seeing this afternoon, with Sunday readings perhaps not barely cracking 60F north of 528 Causeway (as opposed to the current 85F degrees) which fell due to cloud cover here locally.   The good thing is we will 'slide into lower temperatures' rather than do one lump sum plummet like a crashing stock market over night. 

BEYOND: Continued cool to perhaps cold well into next week until at least the 8th- 10th of March,  Other than in the next two days, little chance of rain is foreseen. There is a chance that some areas along the West Coast going into the weekend will be colder during the day if a more westerly wind component sets up and they experience afternoon stratocumulus cloud decks blocking out the afternoon sun off the Gulf of Mexico. IN summary, if you like it warm, enjoy today through Wednesday. 

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Sunday, February 24, 2013

Spider Wheel Monster Low in the Making


 TODAY: Remainder of Sunday. Satellite image pretty much tells the story. Some thunder is occurring with isolated small but isolatedly potent storms across the Panhandle region BEHIND the front just to emphasize the bizarre nature of this boundary. The front could sink as far south as shown in the yellow lines. Clouds, low clouds, and isolated showers could occur any time or place over night in random fashion, but again, very isolated. The boundary will lift back north as a warm front into mid-morning Monday but remain across Central Florida all day Monday, while a secondary warm front forms much further North as shown below

MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ROUGHLY LIKE THIS ABOVE. Warmest along and SOuth of the Red Warm Front Shown with showers and storms most likely far North Central interior toward the Panhandle, although some showers and maybe a storm could from after 3-4pm East Central along a side shore component wind from near Brevard to  Interior Volusia County, Lake County , and toward Ocala although that too is a bit sketcy
MONDAY: As noted above, a pseudo-warm front will remain across Central Florida until mid-evening Monday night then lift well north toward where the orange boundary above will already have been established. A cold front will have crossed the Texas SE Coast but be increasingly preceded by a developing pre-frontal boundary. As can be seen by now, this system is not simple; it will be affecting most everyone east of the Mississippi River from Florida to Southern Canada most all of this upcoming week in various ways from snow, cold, wind, and rains, mainly North of the Mason-Dixon Line. I expect we'll be hearing all about it all next week in weather related news casts.

TUESDAY: A warmer day ahead of the approaching cold front once again with a slight chance of thunder. Will need to watch for some potentially  stronger storms from SR 520 (roughly and north) Tuesday after 2PM toward sunset, but at this point it appears we'll be experience mostly cloud cover and some showers south of I-4.

IMAGE FOR 1PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Most action for storms could end up along the pre-frontal trough shown by the black dashed line. This boundary will be drawn more north than east though, so it might only affect the west side of the sate toward the west side of Orlando and north of I-4;  too soon to say for sure at this point
TUESDAY: "Monster Spider Wheel" of ejecting troughs and disturbances rotates its way east and north.  For Example, By Friday this (above) is what this system looks like at 10,000 feet or 700mb. White arrows are a rough 'stream line analysis' of the general flow into Florida.

THE REST OF THIS COMING WEEK: Roughly there will be three fronts to go through this upcoming week all because of the system shown above. The first goes through Tuesday night. The Temperature drop behind that boundary will not be bad at all with highs still in the 70Fs.

The next boundary goes through Friday Morning so expect a big noticeable change in the weather on Friday as lows go into the 40Fs with highs in the 60Fs  if not some 50Fs to the north range somewhere. It will be breezy behind this boundary, wind chills becoming a factor. Winds WNW-NW most all of the time from Wednesday and beyond for a solid week, but not always windy.

The next boundary goes through around Sunday Morning . This is the one that will be bring the first shot of much colder air in. It might very well be followed by another around Tuesday morning as well re-enforcing what is already in place. More wind chill factor relatedness could end up being conveyed on TV.

 WHEN DO WE WARM UP NOTICEABLY?: Possibly around the 8th of March.

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Friday, February 22, 2013

Will The "Real Winter" Please Stand Up?!

LATEST GFS surface 'depicture' for Sunday Afternoon,
showing a front's location and best rain chances

TODAY and SATURDAY: Warm with above average temperatures on tap. Wind today becoming more southerly with temperatures into the low-mid 80Fs for much of the peninsula with coolest readings near Central Brevard and North up the east coast along and east of I-95 due to a slight wind component off the ocean, where ocean temperatures are coolest as well due to the further proximity of the Gulf Stream to the coast as opposed to from Ft Pierce and south. Saturday's wind will be more Southwesterly so that should not be an issue. There appears to be a chance of showers from near Ft. Pierce and south on the GFS model for several runs in a row now on Saturday, whereas word has it the better chance is further north on the ECMWF model which I'll discount for now.

SUNDAY: The first front enters Central Florida on Sunday afternoon with a good chance of rain and possible thunder along and north of I-4 potentially nosing into Central Brevard after 2PM in the afternoon. Possibly thunder on this day as well, whereas South Central and South Florida remain apparently dry at this point. Warmest south of I-4 with again highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and warmer South Florida.

MONDAY: Although it could rain into the over-night hours Sunday night (especially along and north of I-4), the boundary will 'buckley buckle back north" rapidly to Central or North Georgia 'as a warm front' in response to another low pressure system.

The red warm front shown will have been over Central Florida  late day Sunday into the overnight, but will lift back north rapidly as shown in this GFS model depiction. A complex mid to upper level pattern at this point is taking shape over the Great Lakes region to eventually continue to affect them as well as the NE States in days to come
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Warm and potentially dry with SW winds ahead of that next front shown above approaching from the west.  Although not shown here, a large and stubborn upper level low pressure system is to develop near the NE Great Lakes and stay firmly planted. The cold front 'should' cross through over-night Monday night and be through Central Florida by sunrise, Tuesday with another rain chance.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Cooler but not cold, yet. Guidance flips around in the Wednesday time frame indicating a secondary surge of moisture rapidly moving in from the Central Gulf of Mexico as an 'over running' feature with a shallow north wind at the ground in place over Florida resulting a re-introduction to rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the other hand, the most recent GFS says that is a no go. So we'll need some continuity on that potential. Otherwise, it makes little difference beyond Wednesday as a series of 'dry fronts' rotate around like spokes on a large- low pressure-wheel located up in the NE Quadrant of the U.S.  The net result is a series of dry fronts surfing through as the drop south around the axis of rotating, whilst the first much cooler to cold one on Friday is to arrive, with several more shown to 'ditto that' for another week beyond.

ANY QUESTIONS? The gist is for another 7-10 days of winter.
At least so far as the Story is Being Told
 NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH NEXTEST NEXT FRIDAY: Temperatures below to well below normal. This is in contrast to earlier model runs that kept popping up the chance of severe weather in lieu of a cold air (or multiple one) intrusions. The question is, will that really be the case for as along as depicted, that being through the first week of March? Heads up at this point.


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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Warmer Through Saturday With Rain Chances Friday

See text above. The 'cold front' entered Central around 2 or 3AM and quickly dwindled...this is apparent in the next image based on surface temperatures. High clouds could move in some areas later today, but remain quite thin making for a pretty sunset if they do so. It could warm up more ..up the spine of the state past
I-4 as the day progresses

TODAY: Dry and pleasant reigns the roost today, but a bit cool to the north side of the state after the weak frontal boundary crossed on through. High clouds as seen above might move in later in the afternoon, after peak heating though, so little affect to the diurnal temperature regime will be noted. Light wind overnight from the east could hold coastal lows into the 60Fs with 50Fs elsewhere, but over all the trend in temperatures is up....for a few hold more steady during the day near the east coast beaches as a result of cooler sea air temperature modification.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The next frontal boundary approach and the one after that are signaling a signification shift in the over all synoptic scale weather pattern over the U.S. from later this week into next week's as 'mis-guidance' starts to diverge after around Saturday; so, there is still much to be revealed. Overall though, chance of showers east coast toward the south comes later Friday before the front comes too close. Then SW winds on Saturday will really warm things up all regions. The boundary could get to Central, then lift back north as a warm front.

SATURDAY: Very warm with highs in the lower to mid-80Fs. Breezy SW wind.

BEYOND: So far, it appears the front will never clear Central. This is due to strong high pressure ridging south from James Bay off the U.S. East coast and merging with high pressure already in place well to the east of Florida creating a blocking pattern. However, the next huge upper low and the dynamics associated with it are very complex..and the net result is a dual component to it with yet another system dropping south from Alaska. Sort of like a 'wave within a larger wave' is with that next system which is already so far out in time we run into problems given the amount of time until this yet to actually exist low pressure system enters the picture, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Example: Last nights GFS shows big rains for the late Sunday into Monday time frame..or even early Tuesday. The last run is not much different either. It is what happens beyond that time frame that is of quite the quandary  The GFS is showing for a prolonged 'chill down' going into March..whereas every other model runs or so show a severe weather event instead. Coin toss. I'm hedging for the latter though at this point,  as a matter of prejudice of cold weather...and nothing more than that. 

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Monday, February 18, 2013

Cold Spell Abates as Temperates Flare

One PM afternoon visible satellite picture from the sky shows the anticipate lower mid level clouds beginning to work across the Peninsula as High Pressures moves East while another front approaches from the west 
TODAY: No surprises since last Friday's post. Winds have switched onshore as anticipated and low 'starting-to-cloud-up' intermittent stratocumulus clouds have begun to advect ashore in return easterly flow. 

Extensive cloud coverage not expected although they could thicken close toward sunset near the immediate beaches south of I-4 toward Ft. Pierce. Wind light from the ENE slowly veering to east then east-southeast to southeast after dark.  Highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs.  

Lows this morning varied from the lower 40Fs along A1A from the Cape to Miami and it was colder everywhere else in the state with a reading near 19F in the low interior area of JAX noted on their observations. Other freezing temperatures were noted elsewhere though, with lows into the mid to lower 30Fs as far south as between Punta Gorda and Venice on the west coast interior. 

TONIGHT: Warmer all areas, with overnight readings in the 40Fs range interior and west, in general, except east of US1 and  south of I-4, with warmest readings from Canaveral and south as wind become SSE and begin to increase. 50Fs closer to I-95 to US 1.

Temperatures might fall very little along A1A after 8 or 9pm and might even increase after 3AM into the lower 60Fs to mid 60Fs south of Vero Beach.

TUESDAY: Breeze from the SW and highs in the low-mid 70Fs with some upper 70Fs South Florida  always possible as the next front approaches. Any rain with that front will be north of I-4 at best.

Afternoon placement of surface features today, Monday
TUESDAY NIGHT -WEDNESDAY: The front should be whisking by Central sometime around 1AM Thursday morning with little effect other than to result in after noon highs a bit cooler than Tuesday but warmer than today's highs will be. High clouds could start to move in prior to frontal passage and be more abundant behind it though. This front is very shallow, barely penetrating upward vertically about 2000 ft with a quick easterly wind shift behind it. Thus, the cooler temperatures will be in place primarily due to potential high cloud coverage which is to be in place through Thursday or maybe into Friday as well. Air temperatures temperately comfort-able. 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like the warmest day now will be Saturday, with highs in the lowers 80Fs if not warmer. High Clouds to move out as the line of thinking this afternoon so far. From Saturday on through early next week is where a scenario is unfolding per the GFS which is not consistent with previous runs.

That being, the front never gets south of Central Florida by Sunday , but rather moves back north as a warm front. If that is so, we could see showers or thunder on Sunday afternoon Central to North Central and then again on Monday into Tuesday. The trend will be interesting to monitor though. 

In regard to late month severe, that potential has popped up in one out of six model runs (which are posted ever 6 hours) since the previous post, but the majority rule so far 'was' for another very cool spell..but given that would be going into the first week of March (although totally possible) we are beginning to enter a change in the seasons Florida  style, which makes extended outlooks even more unreliable than unreliable at best.

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Saturday, February 16, 2013

Cold Blast Thru Central before Dark, Warm Tuesday

Current cold front position as of 1:15PM this Saturday afternoon on 2/16.  It so far appears it will cross the CDL (Central Dividing Line) before sunset by about an hour or so as the sun starts to get 'lower to the sky' 
TODAY: As noted above. Expecting a temperature drop of about 10F degrees after passage accompanied by some cloud coverage.  We could attribute the larger temperature drop due to the issue of it being so late in the day and solar heating will begin to be lost, with peak heating this time of the year around 2:30 - 3pm.

TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY: Guidance has BACKED OFF on how cold it will get tonight per the last two GFS runs. Whether-Weather that holds water is hard to say, but for all purposes it looks like mostly an upper 30Fs affair for nearly all of Central except far North Central (at best), with lows around 38F - 42F most areas. Breezy.during this time frame. Chances are this is not what is being widely advertised though, so wouldn't hang the wool hat on that one. Either way, it's going to be chilly so it might be best to protect plants and pets (and self).

LATER SUNDAY: Highs in the low 50Fs most areas. Wind becomes much lighter by noon time.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: The A1A strip from Canaveral and South might not fall much in temperature after about 10pm, with a low near 48F, but colder away from A1A to varying degrees (cold ones) toward the west side of the state. High pressure centered near SE Georgia slowly moves off shore with low 60Fs returning and a light east wind. Stratocumulus clouds moving in on the immediate east coast possibly before 11AM Monday morning as wind becomes more SE by nightfall. The cloud should spread inland during the day.

TUESDAY: SW wind by late morning toward noon time and a high in the low-mid 70Fs.

WEDNESDAY: Another front is on the way, but appears will be dry except for North Florida. it will cool things off only minimally, not a big deal. Beyond that time frame, warm into next weekend once again, with potentially near record Highs on Friday. After that, things get to sketchy to exasper-gasp upon.

EXTENDED: Guidance continues to paint a Severe Weather event in the 'unreliable' time frame toward March 3. I recall something like that being indicated last year though as well.  The latest run is totally Outrageous with a low in the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico exhibiting 40 mph surface winds and 70mph winds just above the ground... 'Ode to the  348 hour GFS Curve Ball"...  but does bear monitoring from a curiously  "trend cast perspective".

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Friday, February 15, 2013

Clearing Central - Big Cold Front Late Saturday with Gusty Chills

TODAY: Gradual clearing and mostly cloudy today South as shown in this image.
Highs in the lower 70Fs south and mid 60Fs to lower 60Fs Central and North. 

TODAY:  In the next image (below) we'll see that a surface front is well south toward the Keys. The yellow area is where a fragmented 'frontal zone' resides just above ground level to about 4000 ft. Central is catching some fragmentary cloud moments on the north side of that boundary zone along and south of I-4. Light wind today and a bit cool, but otherwise the rain appears to be over for good in regard to the next several days (at least) outside of light "spurty moments" today south Florida.

TONIGHT: There is a good dry slot as we await the mid and upper level support to approach on Saturday. Mildly cool evening with light winds. Note image below. This clear zone is morning in for the overnight and earlier portions of Saturday.

Above shows the current situation. Note the 'white mid level boundary' as depicted. That mid-upper level trough/front will be swinging RAPIDLY into Florida around noon time Saturday and be in the area until after sunset.
SATURDAY: As noted (above), the upper level support to drive colder air into Florida is going to be due to not this front alone, but by that High Pressure area written in as a Big Blue "H". As clockwise circulation around this high develops as it builds eastward, it will 'drag down' colder air from the north. Low pressure could also form near the Carolinas. This will set up a tight pressure gradient by noon time or so . 

Moisture from the 'white front' combined with tight pressure gradient winds could result in increasing clouds from mid-morning and more so after noon to 1pm. Surface winds from the WNW -NW 18 mph G 34 mph with highs on Saturday perhaps a tad warmer than today until the leading edge of the clouds associated with the 'white front' enter the picture.

So far, it's anticipated the actual surge of drier and colder air will cross The Beachline Zone around 4:30 -5pm time frame, with a NOTABLE temperature drop as it does so. By sunset the temperature between 5pm and 8pm could drop as much as 15F degrees or so, but the wind will be the real stinger while clouds persist general south of I-4 until after sunset or near that time frame.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Wind might let up a little after 11pm, with drier and colder air intrusion taking a secondary drop after midnight...then winds begin to let up for day break Sunday. 

Lows in the lower 30Fs toward Sanford, North Orlando.. with the immediate "Barriers" of A1A  somewhere around 38F -42F; likely breezier east of both rivers due to the "Warmer River Water Effect". Continued NNW-N winds Sunday with slowly decreasing winds and clear skies. Highs barley eking 50F.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: The high pressure will approach the coast of South Carolina and as a result a light easterly wind component will be setting up near sunrise Monday. It is possible that right at the beaches near A1A from the Cape South there will be a slight warm up near sunrise Monday morning and again more so, based on timing, Tuesday morning. Monday temperatures will be similar to today's, maybe a bit cooler. It is possible the coldest air Monday morning will 'pool' toward the Tampa Bay - Punta Gorda area (30F degree readings) while right at the beaches on the east coast from the Cape South will be toying with low-mid 50Fs. Chances of increasing low topped coastal stratocumulus clouds from South toward Central Florida Monday afternoon toward sunset due to the onshore flow becoming more ESE-SE.

TUESDAY: Another front on the way for Wednesday  but daytime highs already back into the mid 70Fs as the drama is this time already exited stage left, no wait..right,or is it left (?). In any case, SE winds becoming SW. This next front will eke by as a dry one as the air mass over Florida will have had little time to recoup its moisture loses from Saturday's front.

Cape Canaveral received just over 1 Inch of Rain on Thursday

WEDNESDAY: Front will glide through almost un-noticed other than a wind shift to the ENE. No big temperature drops from that point on are fore-seen as yet another boundary approaches for the next weekend. Guidance so far has shown that one to have little affect on the temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60Fs toward the low-mid 70Fs and overnight lows in the 50Fs with a few 40Fs will inland and toward the west side of the state.  

BEYOND: As usual, going out beyond Wednesday gets sketchy  but to drop a hint the long range trend has been backing off and a cold air intrusion, well, 50/50...the overall 'feel' of the trend though is the potential for severe weather 'somwhere' in the South East States as we looking toward the last 4 days of February.

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Thursday, February 14, 2013

St. Valentine's Florida "Blues" Takes Shape

Clouds streaming across Florida with some rain showers. Dashed YELLOW lines indicate various elongated 'troughs' with the prime one oscillating north/south from Dead Central to South Central Florida.  These troughs align parallel to jet stream winds which are adding in mid level lift and hence, rain.  Another trough remains well to the north, and smaller ones to the south. It is lightly raining as I type at  1:30PM 
TODAY: Happy St. Valentines Day (aka, Valentine's Day) -  best and well regards!  So far, per the last post here on the "Weather Made Clearsphere', the weather today is materializing pretty much as expected in varying degrees. All in all as can be seen above, cloud cover is in no way - shape- or form going to be moving out today as temperatures vary vastly from the upper 40Fs far NW Florida to the upper 80Fs far South toward Kendall. Orlando set a record high of 88F degrees yesterday, and it was noted that an 87F came in at Patrick Air Force Base on the 2:55pm surface observation.  Chances of light rain off and with varying clouds; temperatures tonight 'not doing nothing special'. Light winds.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Due to timing issues of resurgences of moisture pockets in the mid levels of the atmosphere it is difficult to get down to exactly how much cloud cover will exist and when it will or will not rain some more. Chances are that by tomorrow things could let up for a while, but guidance does give us two more chances of light rain after today, mainly along and south of I-4 or even the Beach Line. Where it does not rain the temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees warmer than where it does rain.

SATURDAY LATE: So far, guidance is fairly consist in calling for the true frontal passage along with the 850mb and 700mb troughs aloft to occur just prior to sunset Saturday. It could become a bit breezy on Saturday from the WNW-NW, but the true frontal passage appears will be close to 6-7pm time frame throughout the low to mid levels. Cold air advection timing yet still is an issue. Will it occur sooner or later? And why ask?

SUNDAY: If the cold and dry air advection occurs 'soonest', Sunday morning could see low-mid  30Fs as far south as Orlando along with steady and breezy NW winds. On the other hand, be it only 6 hours later, it will not be THAT cold, BUT...the afternoon will be an even cooler to cold time frame for  afternoon high temperatures  All in all though, Sunday afternoon looks to see highs in the Low 50Fs dead central and even colder further north. We could see upper 40Fs though if frontal passage is delayed. Either way though, Sunday is the coldest day of the winter as presumed might be the case.

MONDAY: Potentially not as cold Monday morning, but drainage flow as high pressure is nearly over head could change that for inland locations. East coast from Cape South not as cold or about the same with a slow warm up into the low 60Fs (at least) and warmer South. Continual shifting of surface winds could result in an overnight warm up right at the beach dunes after midnight Monday night, with lows by Tuesday morning there close to 65F.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: By Tuesday it almost looks like it will seem as if the cold snap never even happened; warming in to the 70Fs with SE winds. Some coastal Stratocumulus clouds could start to move in though. After this time frame, guidance is beginning to hold back on the next front just a tad...but no truly cold air is popping up on out there beyond the horizon  long going into the first week of March...not that it will not get 'cooler' again, but 'cold' does not appear to be in the equation.

In true clearing although some brief periods could occur, until sometime Saturday. Light rain possible here and there and any where up until sometime Saturday as well. Colder after sunset Saturday night through Mid Day Monday. Getting breezy to 'windy' Saturday into Sunday and 'cold' by comparison to the norm of this winter season.  

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Sunday, February 10, 2013

Warming Trend Thru Wednesday, Then.....Phase II Winter Alert?

Noon time temperature and surface wind as noted in graphic.
This shows ESE surface wind around 15-20mph and warm

TODAY: As noted above. Wind tonight will become more southerly well ahead of an approaching cold front as the high pressure to Florida's East abetting in the increased pressure gradients winds shifts further away to the east. With continued onshore overnight flow, coastal lows tonight will be in the lower 60Fs.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Winds becoming more S-SSW and warmer; a bit breezy as well. Rain free with highs in the Upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs.  A frontal boundary could make it as far south as Central Florida (somewhere) but remain dry except toward the I-10. That will be short lived though as it retreats back north into Georgia as a warm front. Thus, Monday and especially Tuesday will be warm  "all-quads" with breezy SW winds continuing into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: St. Valentine's Eve Day will be breezy and warm as another cold front approaches. Best chance of any rain, and perhaps some thunder will be along to north of I-4, although cloud coverage could increase by mid afternoon as moisture in the atmosphere increases.  The new and better defined front will have  'formulate' as a result of low pressure forming over Texas which will be moving east across the Southern Tiers of the Deep South.

It appears now that the front will be crossing Central Florida well after dark Wednesday night and reach South Florida by Day Break St. Valentine's Day. However! (pause...)  It will be a very shallow post frontal passage air mass (at first) with very cool NNW winds behind it, but only up to about 2000 ft, which is meant by the word 'shallow'. 

Above that level , we await a strong mid level trough to cross the state. In the meantime, strong divergent Jet Stream Level Winds will be screaming overhead resulting in mid level lift and lower level warm air over-running. Where ever that over-running 'zone' ends up could result in persistent light to moderate rain. Guidance has varied from South Central and more to South so far. Regardless....

St. Valentines Day:  So far, it looks to be cloudy south of I-4  as a result of the shallow post cold frontal air mass and over-running combination. Net effect will be quite cool in the temperature department and even cooler where (and if) rain starts to fall. The day might start out cloudy south of I-4 particularly and become increasingly 'thick in the overcast'. Rain showers developing from quite close to the Beach Line corridor and south with time, somewhere from mid-afternoon to sunset and persisting overnight into Friday for the first half of the day. Timing will remain an issue on this guestimate until the Tuesday time frame as model guidance aligns.

MEANWHILE: High pressure will be building South from the Inter-mountain Region into Texas and then shift east slowly, very slowly. Circulation (clockwise) around that high will place Florida in a long-term NW type flow dragging continuous surges of cool to eventually colder air down the spine of the state from Saturday into the following week.

THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT?: There might be some Valentine's Day Blues in the weather department  concerning the lack of blue skies and moist cool air in place. This day might be one of the crummiest days we've seen all winter as well heading into nightfall and into the first portions of Friday. 

Guidance has varied from the scenario just described to much worse as far as rainfall is concerned. Given how far out in time this is though, best to hold back on the confidence game. There is always the possibility that guidance still needs to resolve the Post Blizzard storm situation from the other day, that, as well as any effects the snow covered grounds to the north will have on the strength of post -storm High Pressure systems at lower levels. 

Until snow fall to occur before the boundary ever gets here is resolved, the extent and length of a cool to cold spell is yet to be determined. Although, so far there has been quite a bit of consistency that therein lies the chance this could be the coldest period we've seen all season heading toward this time next week. Don't pack those mukluks,  parkas, gortex face masks, mittens, gloves, hand warmers, muffs,  thermal undies, snow shovels and firewood away just yet.   Ya just nebbbrrrrr know.

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Thursday, February 7, 2013

"Sandy Land" Storm Developing over Florida - White Powder Not So Sweet

Chance of rain/showers as noted in Green from 6pm - midnight (or so) 
TODAY: As can be seen, a frontal boundary extends as shown above. The parent low will be moving east to ENE in the next 18 hours and quickly lift up the eastern seaboard to just off shore Hatteras. That will provide the ample moisture to fuel heavy snow further north with wrap around  Atlantic moisture laden air surging into cold air over the NE states, accompanied by stronger coastal winds. Another low off this picture will be latching up with this low, a bit like what occurred with the Sandy Sandy back in the fall.  Thus, many of the same areas will be impacted although to a lesser degree and in a different way. The other low and the circulation and high pressure couplet could result in Lake Effect snows in Western NY and parts of PA as well. 

Meanwhile, locally the frontal boundary will take a bit of time to finally slide across Central and South Florida due to it's configuration now running parallel along the Jet Stream supporting winds well aloft. As one can see, as that red "L" moves east the front is going to take a while to pass on through.

Latest guidance shows little chance of rain south of I-4, but given that current radar trends which show more rainfall over North Florida right now than guidance would lead us to believe should be occurring, would be willing to ante up the rain chances across Central Florida namely after 6pm or so toward midnight some time. Regardless, it would be after or near dark south of I-4 along the East Side of the state and be over well before sunrise Friday.

Winds should remain a bit elevated tonight ahead of the boundary from the SW to W after 9pm or so, with a quick swing of winds from the NE-ENE by mid-afternoon Friday. Thus, not a big sig temperature change is expected with highs remaining in the low to mid 70F range, but not as warm as today, although some upper 60Fs could occur if clearing is delayed. Current temperatures as of 2pm were running in the upper 70Fs to a notch or two above 80F in some inland locations.

BEYOND: One if not two more boundaries in the offing in the next 10 days , but all in all it looks like a gradual warming trend will ensue by the end of the weekend as the next boundary approaches. Thus, temperatures it appears will continue to run above normal through the 13th of February.

VALENTINES DAY: So far, there is some consistency that the next front will be passing through the day before Valentine's Day with that day in particular to be running well below average temperature wise. This front now approaching appears to be the harbinger of a general pattern change trend of frontal passages and circulation systems, with even greater changes popping up in the 'super long range' (which in reality should hold little bearing as is proven to be the case time and time again).  It will be interesting to see if Greater Severe Weather potential will crop up by late Month OR if Colder Weather will return, since the GFS has shown both to be the case from time to time depending on what time one views the model. Although, so far it seems all things level out and we have yet to see either a colder pattern OR severe weather situation materialize despite what the long range on the model has shown during the past 2 weeks. 

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Friday, February 1, 2013

Pleasantly "Cool" Through Monday, Long Range Warm Trend

State Temperatures Around 6:30AM  this morning. Note that the warmest readings are along A1A from the Cape and South through the Keys
(which is the 'normal' winter layout on drainage flow mornings with little wind)
TODAY: Mostly sunny and on the slightly cool side, much like yesterday overall . High clouds over the Panhandle likely keeping morning lows warmer there than would otherwise be the case. Noting that Okeechobee not too long before sunrise was 37F degrees, a good 15F degrees cooler than Cocoa Beach well to the north.

The coolest air was near Ocala toward Inverness and Crystal River. Strongest wind was reported over the eastern most Barrier Islands of Brevard County (but possibly at other locations that do not report further south along the intracoastals) due to surrounding water and mixing of warmer air above those waters. Those winds will likely abate by mid-morning at the latest. Chance of a thin veil of cirrus clouds by noon time or so, which could easily go by unnoticed to the casual non-observant but make for a nice sunset.

SATURDAY: Similar conditions, although morning lows might be 'upped' a few locations. Light east wind near the beaches with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Another front will skirt by around midnight Saturday night, shifting winds back to the WNW to NW resulting in a Sunday morning temperature regime similar to this morning; yet, it appears Sunday afternoon will be the warmer of the next 3 days as air remains dry and 'heights' of the higher standard levels of the atmosphere used by meteorologists and model guidance begin to raise. As a result, the following fronts and associated low pressure systems will pass so far north of the state that the fronts will have a hard time reaching as far south as I-10.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Similarly very cool mornings like today, with warmest mornings also patterned out like as shown in the image above. Morning lows will quickly warm after sunrise all days though, especially on Tuesday when highs will get into the low-mid 70Fs (especially away from the beaches Central and North Florida).

BEYOND: The GFS Model trend has been calling for light SE Winds and morning lows at the beaches in the low-mid 60Fs by Wednesday next week and beyond, with interior areas warming into the 50Fs ranges. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70F for many days, at least a week and remaining dry. The same model also shows (though) some increased moisture and rains, perhaps by a greatly weakened front trying to come in 'the back door' at some point in time, but given how far out in time that is will disregard for now. And, if even so, that front has little to no effect on temperatures.

Otherwise, that model has been fairly consistent that no big fronts or any for that matter beyond the one this Saturday Overnight until mid-February. We will, by then, be approaching the time that any long lasting truly 'cold' days falling consecutively one after the other grows ever increasingly less likely as well. May be looking at a frontal boundary falling stationary 'somewhere' across the state with much better rain chances  but that seems a bit unusual for February at any time in the month which has been

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