"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, February 7, 2013

"Sandy Land" Storm Developing over Florida - White Powder Not So Sweet

Chance of rain/showers as noted in Green from 6pm - midnight (or so) 
TODAY: As can be seen, a frontal boundary extends as shown above. The parent low will be moving east to ENE in the next 18 hours and quickly lift up the eastern seaboard to just off shore Hatteras. That will provide the ample moisture to fuel heavy snow further north with wrap around  Atlantic moisture laden air surging into cold air over the NE states, accompanied by stronger coastal winds. Another low off this picture will be latching up with this low, a bit like what occurred with the Sandy Sandy back in the fall.  Thus, many of the same areas will be impacted although to a lesser degree and in a different way. The other low and the circulation and high pressure couplet could result in Lake Effect snows in Western NY and parts of PA as well. 

Meanwhile, locally the frontal boundary will take a bit of time to finally slide across Central and South Florida due to it's configuration now running parallel along the Jet Stream supporting winds well aloft. As one can see, as that red "L" moves east the front is going to take a while to pass on through.

Latest guidance shows little chance of rain south of I-4, but given that current radar trends which show more rainfall over North Florida right now than guidance would lead us to believe should be occurring, would be willing to ante up the rain chances across Central Florida namely after 6pm or so toward midnight some time. Regardless, it would be after or near dark south of I-4 along the East Side of the state and be over well before sunrise Friday.

Winds should remain a bit elevated tonight ahead of the boundary from the SW to W after 9pm or so, with a quick swing of winds from the NE-ENE by mid-afternoon Friday. Thus, not a big sig temperature change is expected with highs remaining in the low to mid 70F range, but not as warm as today, although some upper 60Fs could occur if clearing is delayed. Current temperatures as of 2pm were running in the upper 70Fs to a notch or two above 80F in some inland locations.

BEYOND: One if not two more boundaries in the offing in the next 10 days , but all in all it looks like a gradual warming trend will ensue by the end of the weekend as the next boundary approaches. Thus, temperatures it appears will continue to run above normal through the 13th of February.

VALENTINES DAY: So far, there is some consistency that the next front will be passing through the day before Valentine's Day with that day in particular to be running well below average temperature wise. This front now approaching appears to be the harbinger of a general pattern change trend of frontal passages and circulation systems, with even greater changes popping up in the 'super long range' (which in reality should hold little bearing as is proven to be the case time and time again).  It will be interesting to see if Greater Severe Weather potential will crop up by late Month OR if Colder Weather will return, since the GFS has shown both to be the case from time to time depending on what time one views the model. Although, so far it seems all things level out and we have yet to see either a colder pattern OR severe weather situation materialize despite what the long range on the model has shown during the past 2 weeks. 

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