"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 17, 2015

Slow Moving Storms, Locally Heavy Rain Possible

TODAY: Subtle change from past few days might be in the works. The wild card is the storms currently active along the west coast (see below image). How those storms will affect conditions later in the day is the wild card, if in fact they will at all as far as North half of the state is concerned.

THE PREMISE: On the premise these storms will eventually result in outflow and an enhanced West Coast sea breeze effect, the end result could be stronger storms mainly into the interior portions of the state or more toward the east coast as noted also below down the Suwanee River Basin region.

NOW: Current KSC sounding shows continued stronger westerlies at what might be above the depth of a sea breeze depths yet below the better storm steering currents. If this sounding is representative of most of the south half of the state, storm steering will be quite slow today. Additionally, given the aforementioned, sea breezes might well be able to form today as opposed to previous days, but exactly how far inland is another matter (namely the east coast sea breeze). 

If the east coast sea breeze remains closer to I-95 if in fact not closer toward US1  especially south of the I-4 toward Volusia county, the area in red would need to be shifted a bit more to the east. Temperatures aloft are not that cold today with 500mb coming in at around -6C and 700mb at around 10C. That is opposed to those days when they might be running closer to -9C/6C respectively.

Those temperatures are not conducive to strong downdraft winds and indeed the down draft CAPE and Down Bust potential indexes are low to non-existent per the MAP (Mesoscale Analysis Page); however, there is a lot of moisture to play with, and as a result down burst winds from water overloading could always occur near the later stages of any storm along boundary intersects. 

July 14th 2014 - Vierra From off I95 Storm
Outside of sea breeze effects (if possible) there might be quite a bit of showers minus thunder as was the case yesterday, or very limited thunder. However, it is Florida and things could change going into mid afternoon.

Outside of those more apparently obvious circumstances listed, storm outflows would alter the landscape and at that point almost anything goes, even closer to the beaches namely north of West Palm.

Elsewhere, sea breeze convergence over what appears mostly would be over the Everglades region seems the better play for the day, though showers or even thunder could form during and along the sea-breeze journey from either coast into the interior portions.

BEYOND: Similar conditions might be at play tomorrow;however, what will occur early morning tomorrow toward the west coast will have a big effect for later in the day elsewhere (there is a domino effect); otherwise, ample moisture continues with showers and thunder possible though just exactly how wide spread or at all strong is another matter entirely.

Even further out in time, steering toward the east coast will remain about steady state it appears, though the ridge axis over the Florida Straits will lift to the Okeechobee region in coming days which will affect mostly South and South Central in that the immediate coasts might be devoid of rains other than earlier in the day.

GFS implies warming mid-level temperatures further up stream which would greatly reduce storm strength and coverage despite ample moisture, but that's another BIG IF so persistence would seem to be the best bet for contiuned normal storm strength coverage until that time comes, if ever.

No comments: