"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Showers Storms Again Today/Monday

"Dinner Time, Dearies!"
Late Afternoon Cape Canaveral Storm, Florida

YESTERDAY: Remnant vorticity and weak low level circulation associated with post-Dorian whose explorations are over with now that the storm is being absorbed into a continental trough and associated surface 'cold' front was partially responsible for yesterday's weather pattern. That front will enter into North and Central Florida Monday and Monday evening. 

Meanwhile, a trailing boundary at the surface appeared yesterday per satellite imagery early in the day to lie across Central Florida with a mid level trough more toward offshore Central and into Southeast and South Central. The result was some rain in both areas but for different reasons and at different times (in general).

Some observers noted 'funnel cloud' like formations with some turning however no official 'funnel cloud' reports that I've seen ever came perhaps they were 'scuddels" if not near 'scudnadoes' (funnel looking scud clouds).
"Honey, You better come take a look at this"
Funnel Scud Like Formation from leading edge of  "arcus ingestus"
Suspicious Cloud Activity - Cape Canaveral Mid-Afternoon

TODAY: Tropical remnants of "Dorian"are out of the picture. Light westerly to WSW low level flow curves to west to NW to even NE   at Jet Stream level. Although we might not see a sea breeze but very close toward the coast, there is weak cyclonic curvature with plenty of early day clear skies to let instability get started. Suspect it might end up being a rather earlier start again somewhere near to just south of I-4 and then working generally  east and south with time. P.S. - 'arcus ingestus' is not a defined cloud type.

It gets very tricky toward South Florida as anvil tops today will shear South and West and might stabilize much of SW and/or South Florida.  Otherwise, multiple rounds of light showers could occur about anywhere especially south of I/4 toward Eastern Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie County and in from the coast toward the North South Central Peninsular Line .  

Could be some stronger storms as well, due to wind gusts near 50-55mph (generally sub severe) as the morning Mesoscale analysis data shows plenty of downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). This being a sign of some dry air aloft, can hold off activity altogether, but the morning KSC sounding shows that showers could form as the dryer air appears to be above 15,000 ft. Earlier activity thus might mainly be showers with thunder more likely to manifest around mid-afternoon once convergence from outflows can be established , but not 'necessarily' so.  

MONDAY: Frontal Boundary to sink into Central. If activity gets started too early across North Florida than anvil winds could overspread cloud thunderstorm tops south across the Peninsula, but at this time the GFS is showing that won't be too much of an issue, calling for even greater rainfall potential than today.

BEYOND: Frontal boundary washes out in far Southeast Florida going into late Tuesday, and mid level trough "MIGHT" return back north late week.  Yes, that means a COLD FRONT will be crossing Central Florida in August. Good thing it's August though, it will mean little more than a wind shift and take the edge off the 90Fs.

Otherwise, other than some ocean showers early day, much of the east coast might remain dry for an 'extended time frame' perhaps until after the 2nd full week of August is over. Most activity then will be more toward the west half of the state, with SW Florida being active in particular on Tuesday afternoon. 

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