"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Warmer Through Saturday With Rain Chances Friday

See text above. The 'cold front' entered Central around 2 or 3AM and quickly dwindled...this is apparent in the next image based on surface temperatures. High clouds could move in some areas later today, but remain quite thin making for a pretty sunset if they do so. It could warm up more ..up the spine of the state past
I-4 as the day progresses

TODAY: Dry and pleasant reigns the roost today, but a bit cool to the north side of the state after the weak frontal boundary crossed on through. High clouds as seen above might move in later in the afternoon, after peak heating though, so little affect to the diurnal temperature regime will be noted. Light wind overnight from the east could hold coastal lows into the 60Fs with 50Fs elsewhere, but over all the trend in temperatures is up....for a few hold more steady during the day near the east coast beaches as a result of cooler sea air temperature modification.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The next frontal boundary approach and the one after that are signaling a signification shift in the over all synoptic scale weather pattern over the U.S. from later this week into next week's as 'mis-guidance' starts to diverge after around Saturday; so, there is still much to be revealed. Overall though, chance of showers east coast toward the south comes later Friday before the front comes too close. Then SW winds on Saturday will really warm things up all regions. The boundary could get to Central, then lift back north as a warm front.

SATURDAY: Very warm with highs in the lower to mid-80Fs. Breezy SW wind.

BEYOND: So far, it appears the front will never clear Central. This is due to strong high pressure ridging south from James Bay off the U.S. East coast and merging with high pressure already in place well to the east of Florida creating a blocking pattern. However, the next huge upper low and the dynamics associated with it are very complex..and the net result is a dual component to it with yet another system dropping south from Alaska. Sort of like a 'wave within a larger wave' is with that next system which is already so far out in time we run into problems given the amount of time until this yet to actually exist low pressure system enters the picture, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Example: Last nights GFS shows big rains for the late Sunday into Monday time frame..or even early Tuesday. The last run is not much different either. It is what happens beyond that time frame that is of quite the quandary  The GFS is showing for a prolonged 'chill down' going into March..whereas every other model runs or so show a severe weather event instead. Coin toss. I'm hedging for the latter though at this point,  as a matter of prejudice of cold weather...and nothing more than that. 

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