"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 16, 2017

'Strong' Storms Possible Near East Coast Today

Recent Weather Pattern has made for some interesting sunrises
TODAY: The recent cyclical nature of the 'wash, rinse, repeat' weather pattern of recent days is undergoing some subtle but pertinent transformations at time and will continue to do so through Saturday.

Abundant moisture in the atmosphere (higher PWAT, precipitable water) will still be in place today  as will the cool air aloft ..the subtle shift today is in that there will be more of a gentle nudge in the winds aloft to bring some 'bona fide' thunder to the immediate east coast beaches (particularly north of Vero Beach).  

Even at  pre-sunrise showers and some storms are well off both coasts with the activity off the Florida East coast clearly lifting out to the northeast; this is often a fore-bearer or sign of what might transpire later in the day, namely pretty good coverage of showers and storms.

The news overall is 'big heat' across parts of the Desert Southwest building into West Texas and parts of Oklahoma and Western Kansas as a heat ridge. This building heat out west and a bit of a blocking pattern to the east of the U.S. will allow an upper level trough to drop or even 'squeeze' south a bit more  today across of the eastern 1/3 of the country , including Florida. 

In response, the steering winds aloft will manifest from a more WSW component as the day wears on; whereas in the past few days there has been almost no steering at all, and apparent storm motions were mainly along outflow boundaries merging with lake breezes and what little of a sea breeze would form along either coast making for very slow and erratic storm motion.

The pattern change (for today) actually began to develop late yesterday but will be much more in affect today, and more so on Saturday.

The low down, for blog purposes (only) is in thinking that some stronger storms could form along the easterly progressing west coast sea breeze accompanied by outflow boundaries leading the way as activity develops along the west coast mainly from Tampa and north. As this activity converges with the east coast sea breeze is where the stronger storms might form, and they then would press east and offshore.

If any really stronger storms will form, the better chances are those areas that will be the latest to receive them  - that is to say,  the areas where the atmosphere has not been 'worked over' by earlier day rain activities.

For now, given the current forecast wind pattern aloft, will surmise that mainly East Central and East South Central will be the areas to watch today for stronger storms where the east coast sea breeze might have the greatest opportunity to conflict with incoming boundary propagations and/or the west coast sea breeze after the most heating, and thus  where destabilization of the atmosphere will have had the best opportunity to amass over the longest time frame.

SATURDAY: Guidance is fairly consistent that the "Deep Moisture" of recent days will have shifted off shore and south with today's activity this evening. 

As a result, overall atmospheric moisture levels will be lower tomorrow though the wind fields will remain about the same, if not even a bit more favorable for the east coast mainly north of Vero Beach.

 The mid-level westerlies might weaken some   tomorrow further south as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis may start to lift back and reassert itself northward into South Central later in the day. 

Overall coverage on Saturday might be much lower than today as a result and details are still coming out as 'sketchy' in the model guidance. Most models are showing very little rain coverage on Saturday; but for now will play the 'moisture convergence later in the day' card along mainly the Eastern Interior Portions of the state then toward the east coast later in the day

SUNDAY: The 'lower moisture levels' will be short lived however as it returns 'enforce' from South Florida to Central by mid or late afternoon. Steering  on Sunday will not favor the east coast nearly so much as the interior as it become more south to north or even from the SSE to NNW. 

On the other hand, sometimes with moisture return from south to north one will find showers and thunder progressing northward  from the south that could affect almost anywhere. It appears now that South Florida and parts of South Central could 'get into the game' fairly early on in the day on Sunday.

Also to observe that the GFS , as mentioned in a previous post, was getting a bit 'iffy' come the Sunday or Monday time frame as a result of 'presumed activity' it was foreseeing to occur down near the Yucatan and/or the far Western Caribbean. If watching TV station weather, one will find 'much talk' in regard to the tropical forecast come next week as a result of what might go on down there.

In any case, increasing clouds and rain chances re-emerge on Sunday but exactly how that will be realized across Central Florida is TBD.

MONDAY-NEXT WEEK: Models are all over the place as to what might or might not occur with the tropics. Guidance is everywhere from forming a low near or over the Yucatan and taking it west toward the coast of Mexico or far south Texas to a low forming and moving toward Louisiana..or even a low forming more toward the east of the Yucatan and lifting it north toward the Florida panhandle...or even no  low forming at all but instead simply an inverted trough axis  emerges that runs from the Yucatan to about 100 miles west of the Florida west coast. As a result, rain chances are very difficult to determine with much accuracy given the varying scenarios. 

If the low does form, even to tropical depression status and gets fairly wrapped up and remains  well south and west of Florida, chances are that rain chances will go down significantly. 

The more 'open' any area of low pressure remains and more easterly the trough is (toward Florida), the higher the rain chances will be.

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