"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Showers or a Storm Today ,Cooler then Much Cooler Friday-Saturday

TODAY: Complicated series of  frontal boundaries to affect Florida today through late Thursday before clearing the area early Friday. Until then, latest guidance and surface observations shows a poorly organized 'cool front' type boundary across South Georgia as a pre-frontal trough . The 'True Cold Front' is still much further north and west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley to approach and pass through Central Florida and into South Florida early Friday to late Friday morning time frame.

Meanwhile, another muggy morning at hand before even sunrise, with temperature and dewpoints in the 70Fs. 

Greatest instability today should occur where least cloud cover can be maintained the longest into peak heating which appears will occur from just north of the I-4 south to parts of far South Central Florida.

Overlaying that instability is 'wind energy' , in this case, speed shear in the mid to upper levels to be most noted mainly north of I-4 to a line running from just north of Sebastian Inlet toward Clearwater, Florida. 

There is very little to no directional shear and temperatures aloft, though cool, aren't anything overly  abnormal. Latest Model Radar Simulations are not showing 'wide spread' storms today but a few of them are showing 'a storm or two' as far south as perhaps the Ft. Pierce (very late after dark) area with another somewhere 'near the  SR 528 zone across to Tampa along I-4 in the mid-afternoon time frame in the more 'favored area for a stronger storm'.
Areas to watch today might be more toward the West Coast from Sarasota and north, though the 4KM-NAM (in the latest run) shows a strong storm over or near Central/North Brevard late afternoon as well.

All in all would expect some increased cloudiness after the sun gets cooking with a chance of a quick moving storm and/or some showers south of I-4  (and north of I-4 earlier as current radar above shows) sometime  after 2pm through 6pm. Otherwise, another warm day.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The first 'prefrontal boundary' will be near Central Florida early Wednesday morning and it will be nearly 10F degrees cooler most areas as a result, than it is this Tuesday morning. Behind this boundary is drier air and slightly cooler (but barely) temperatures. All in all, the affect of this boundary will be a shift in wind direction and slightly drier air, but the real front will still be nearly 48 hours away. Chance of even a shower however it would appear on Thursday particularly parts of Central to South Florida but storms unlikely except perhaps near and south of the Lake Okeechobee region. No 'rain outs' anticipated and mainy areas during this time period will not see any rain at all.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: What had been heralded as what would have perhaps been 'the coldest yet of the season' has greatly diminished in it's 'cooling capacity' during the past three days per model trends and agreement between them. 

The Final Front-ier should be through near sunrise Friday (Central) though the latest NAM seems to imply...with not much of a cold blast at all. Though wind will be gusting from the NW-NNW most of Central will be seeing either mid- upper 40Fs toward  lower to mid 50Fs, warmest along the East Coast from the Cape and South. 

[If the latest NAM (North American Model) were to pan out, it might be even a bit warmer than that though, with lows mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs across most of Central Florida (but will discount it's 'warmth' for the time being). ]

Granted, about a week ago the GFS was showing mid- upper 30Fs where it is now showing  upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs for the same time frame.

Regardless, this might be , on the NAMs part, due to the slower timing of the frontal passage. Regardless, Friday looks to be a rather cool day all around with the high never reaching 70F except South Florida, even only lower to mid 60Fs for many areas? 

SUNDAY : Either way, agreement is that wind quickly will veer to NE-E and eventually perhaps to the ESE-SE by later on Sunday and decrease with a warm up at hand. The GFS shows no cold front passing through up to nearly December 21st (the first astronomical day of Winter) , at this point, but not set in stone by any means (though that is the latest trend .  

Regardless, does look like from Sunday for the following week temperatures will run above normal once gain, and remaining dry for the most part.

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