"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, December 10, 2010

"The Polar Express" - Santa Hitches a Ride

SYNOPSIS: Inverted trough off the Florida east coast with weak surface low centered roughly just ENE of Daytona Beach early this afternoon is creating cloud cover and temperature havoc for much of north Florida, unbeknownst to those further south who are basking in the warmest and blue sky weather conditions that surpass those of which have been experienced in almost a week. A look at the images included in this post paint the picture. Cloud cover is over North Florida is preventing insolation of full sunshine, and the result is a very cool day indeed in that area.

Elsewhere, high pressure building across the remainder of the peninsula not affected by the backwash of the low pressure system is producing abundant sunshine and light winds as the cold air that has been in place the past several days lifts north.

TODAY: Much of what we see early this afternoon over Florida will continue to remain the case through sunset, or close to it. The only improvement so far further north has been that the rainshowers that were plaguing the Daytona Beach area seem to have shifted north and lightened up in intensity. Clouds and very cool temperatures will remain the story there through sunset.

TOMMORROW: The inverted trough/low pressure area shifts further north and begin to interact with a developing Plains system. The two will become one during the weekend creating dismally cold/wet conditions for the folks in the NE United States. But back to tomorrow, locally over Florida the weather will be much improved. Wherever it is sunny and warmer today will be even more so on Saturday.

Great day for a Cocoa Beach Christmas Parade. Chris Kringle, a.k.a. Santa Claus, will be visiting downtown Sin city with an evil thought planted in the back of his mind as attendees bask in full sun. He knows he needs a ride back to the north pole after a full year of rest in the tropics, and Cocoa Beach is where he'll be picking up the Polar Express for his ride back to the North Pole.

SUNDAY: Toot Toot! Another nice day in store for starters, but clouds like increasing by late morning to early afternoon as the train pulls into station. This is one train I don't want to catch, but in passing it seems it has some luggage to drop off. Bundles of cold air...DON'T OPEN UNTIL CHRISTMAS! Sunday probably won't be quite as warm as Saturday due to clouds by the time of peak heating. There has consistently been lack of consensus as to when the front will cross Central Florida between the GFS and NAM. The NAM, which normally is the faster and most aggressive with all things meteorlogically notable, is instead the slower of the two. The disparity comes in the form as to whether the front will cross the entire south half of Florida between the hours of 11-3am (GFS) or 6pm-10pm (NAM).
In most cases, the powers to be that officiate on forecast dispersal for the media either opt on one or the other, or take an average of the two. I think it's going to be one or the other, with little room for hedging. In this case, I'm opting in optimism toward the NAM (but is it ever entirely correct?), if for no other reason than because I hate to see the train pull in to station.
Unfortunately, the tracks are being layed...maybe the engineers will go on strike for a while and delay the inevitable...that is, will favor the NAM solution.

Either way, increasing clouds with a WSW wind to start the day...when the front'll know it. Some light rain is entirely possible to be mixed in with the clouds, but any prolonged heavier that that activity will be short-lived and quick to move on. I wouldn't go anywhere far from home without luggage (a coat) if you plan on doing so after 1pm and plan on being gone longer than 4 hours. This is one of the cases where it can't hurt to be over prepared.

No matter when the front goes through, "The Polar Express" will blast on across the state, picking up Santa on the way...leaving behind a rushtling stir of arctic air which will then settle down over the state into Wednesday all areas.

MONDAY: Cold winds will blow through the trees overnight while we're under the blankets Sunday night, don't leave the dog out unattended. Temperatures drop all night with pretty windy conditions. The NAM and GFS come into full agreement that the freezing line Monday morning will be running right across Central Florida from near Cocoa Beach to Orlando. Not sure it will be quite that cold though, but mid-30s do not seem out of the question. Those temperatures, combined with a chilling wind will not make for a pleasant day. But hey, the sky will be blue. High temperatures will struggle above 53F. A little warmer further south of course.

TUESDAY: More of the same, with perhaps colder conditions inland and further south. Winds will let up a little but not entirely. The coast should be 'freeze conditions free' south of Daytona...but inland and toward the west side of the state down to Naples will be in for a long, deep freeze of possibly several hours. Afternoon to warm only a little from that which will be experienced Monday.

WEDNESDAY: Another cold night/morning, with winds letting up significantly. This might be the day of broadest covearge of near freezing temperatures under a light wind, radiational cooling regime...with widespread frost not unlikely for all but the A1A-US1 corridor. Warming a good 7-10 degrees though by early afternoon. With highs breeching 64F at least.

THURSDAY: All done. The conditions of early in the week should become a quickly faded memory as temperatures return to near normal, although probably just a few degrees below that. Looks like an extended period of zonal flow could be setting up across much of the country with fast moving systems zipping from west to east across the majority of the country, leaving SW Arizona and much of the south half of Florida being the warmest in the country. Too far out to say for sure, but the implications have been being made now for a few days. Looks nice for next Friday once again, but a pesky, stretched out frontal boundary might lay across the state in benign enough fashion to increase the high level cloud coverage (cirrus clouds) for the second half of next weekend.

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