"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 11, 2011

A Strong Storm Near East Central Coast is Possible on Tuesday (Perhaps Unfounded)

Brief  Post For Today:
IN GENERAL: Based upon the 12z GFS/NAM model runs only.

Storm system sweeping SE toward Florida this afternoon will sink south into Central Florida shortly after peak heating hours. The front is forecast to come in alignment with the Beach Line and fall stationary between the hours of 2-8pm.  It is possible that frontal boundary could be accompanied by a thunderstorm or two, which would be strong considering the cold temperatures aloft and steep low level lapse rates. There are indications that some sort of 'significantly interesting event' may transpire very near the Kennedy Space Center within this time frame. Possibly a strong waterspout or tornado.

HOWEVER - Please note: The likelihood of said is highly unlikely as waterspouts are not synoptic scale events but rather a very localized event that can happen on even only a fair day with virtually no snyoptic scale features present (of apparent significance). So just exactly what these values portrayed, and the gradient values mean just exactly, is uncertain on my part.
Addtionally, conditions are not favorable for development of a rotating, supercell least not as normally potrayed in text books.

But worth noting in the images are: A strong 100o mb vorticity bulls eye just offshore (very odd!!) with moderately strong vorticity riding up the east coast which intersects the more outstanding bulls-eye feature, ample all day sunshine to increase instability even at the coast since most of the day there will be a land breeze which will swing toward paralleling the coast sometime during the mid afternoon, very high 700mb RH values in a highly confined / tight area, and a very strange forecast vertical sounding...during the time of this sounding surface winds are forecast to be calm on the ground,. 

Some select images from the NAM and one from the GFS are included below: 

SIDE NOTE: In the great beyond, it is looking more like the above average rainfall totals going into next week that were referred to in the past two posts and as forecast by the big wheels who specialize in such matters is heading toward fruition. High instability will be mounting over the Gulf of Mexico waters during upcoming days under neath a strong capping environment of near clear skies. As a result, this heat energy will not be permitted to be released ..being shunted toward "Somewhere" in the SE and Gulf Coast states. 

Should this be the case (it is just now beginning to get underway today), the Gulf  waters will have ample and perhaps accelerated time to warm up (read into that statment as you will).

 A closed 500mb low is forecast to reside well to the north of the state, with ripples of energy passing primarily north of the state, but even still, the forecast situation portrays an enviroment that would be ripe for afternoon thunder from time to time - favoring the east side of the state-, and perhaps an all out rainy day here or there. The most of the rainfall would be just to the north of the state as current depicted by the GFS run of 06z last night going out toward the 20th and beyond:
Forecast rainfall by the extended GFS :

TOMMORROW'S PARAMETERS: These can easily change by the next run. and likely will to favor another location. However, I do not believe it will change significantly in regard to where an amplified boundary of some sort will be located across East Central Florida, favoring the coast and inland along a narrow corridor. It's best not to necessarily focus on the center of these values in some of these portrayed, but rather areas that lie along the sharp edges that define them. (the gradient).

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