"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Near Record Highs Today - Small Chance of Shower/Storm Far East Side

Will There 'Be a Catch of the Day' .... Today?

Example of a 'Catch of The Day' last September at the KSC South Gate  -  Looking North
TODAY: Models in agreement today of low precipitation coverage, but in disagreement on where what little if any falls, will be. For two days the NAM has said Brevard County and south but very isolated to almost none. The GFS has said from Brevard County and north but has been decreasing in coverage with every model run. The latest RAP went from some coverage to close to none other than two showers south of Brevard.

All in all today looks like a classic early season very warm to hot day for the time of years with highs in the lower to some mid 90Fs East Central Half to eastern South Central mainly with increasing SW winds. Moisture will be working from south to north fairly rapidly mid-late morning, but during the heat of the day the Central region some moisture levels might be lost out to the atmosphere making for merely some 'pretty  clouds' but not much more .  

The focus would seem to be closer toward I-95 (if not US1) and east where any sea-breeze would be running a bit parallel to the coast and up the intracoastals as it attempts to work inland to  replace the rising air lost to the atmosphere over inland peninsula but being off set by pressure gradient wind on the synoptic (larger) scale from the SW from the surface to 2000 ft AGL.  Overall forecast RAP sounds would seem to indicate hardly even a rain chance most areas. 

SUNDAY: Looks to be just as scant if not more so with no sea breeze in place and lock of a focus mechanism (boundary) . Some areas equally warm but high temperatures might not be quite as warm as today due to the chance of more clouds. Noting that the Storm Prediction Center at time is watching mainly the North half for a marginal 'risk' of severe ...though that would imply if a storm can even form. The risk area might go away in later forecasts.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Not going to touch on these much as surface front inches southward aligned   east-west into North Florida with time . Moisture along the boundary, possibly disturbances riding over it, and ample moisture further south could result in rain chances near it at almost any time which would disrupt the diurnal heating cycle to a small degree (or perhaps more) and in turn affect the rain type (showers vs. thunder) and  locations as well as the degree of instability during the afternoons which could be offset by antecedent cloud cover. Overall the trend has been that it will rain in many locations between Monday to Wednesday but eventually the front passes through resulting in cooling to seasonal norms if not a bit lower some mornings and several continuous dry days. 

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Thursday, April 23, 2015

Stronger Storms 'Could Occur" TodayMainly South of I-4


TODAY Brief post due to time limitations. Appears a developing situation in progress could at least bear watching in regard to some isolated stronger storms mainly toward the East Coast as shown in image below, not to totally count out other locations as well.

Forecast soundings over East Central show cold upper level temperatures (500mb near -10C, 700mb near 6C) and plenty of Effective Shear mainly attributed to bulk shear from the surface through the 500mb layer (which is near 20,000 feet). 

The same forecast sounding shows Jet Stream wind exceeding 100 kts   all coming together with light-moderate CAPE (instability) south of I-4 to along it from Orlando to Tampa. The stronger storms, if so synoptically  speaking 'would' occur near the east coast where low level convergence and helicity would be maximized locally due to the chance of an east coast sea breeze developing but remaining close to the coast.

Most of this all depends though on

1. moisture working far enough north at the low levels; and - 

2. clearing with plenty of afternoon heating which the RAP model is consistently indicating, at leas in regard to the temperatures. and - 

3. the indication that a mid-level (mainly 700mb) trough will cross the north half of the state, now being analyzed over Louisiana.  

Thus, the chance of strong storms anywhere is rather 'conditional' on at least these factors all coming together. Otherwise, some more generic storms might only occur or also mainly occur further south, though the 'further south only' option seems to be going out the storms might even be able to occur further north than shown below though not yet indicated on short range guidance.

Latest satellite animations show that though there are plenty of clouds now, they might be clearing out later this morning based on extrapolation of the current cloud motions

FRIDAY: This day looks very quiet and very warm, with near Record high temperatures as we head into Saturday.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Very warm with westerly wind. Guidance is inconsistent on the rain chances, but both days do have a potential for some showers or storms (isolated) but will tackle that hurdle when we come to it due to the broad range of model discrepancies. At least one more short wave ridge if not to will pass over the area on Friday and again perhaps on Monday, those being low rain chance to no chance days as it stands now.

BEYOND: There is a chance that on Tuesday and/or Wednesday a look toward Severe Weather could occur, but again, we run into the same issue as noted above. Fast moving disturbances in the southern just stream flow make timing nearly impossible for them to approach Florida this far out in time. And after that time, we might see a big cool down from what we've experienced for most of the month and a longer, dry out period as well.

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Monday, April 20, 2015

A Potential Exists Today For Isolated Severe or Some Strong Storms

Monday Morning Skies as Yesterday's Upper Level Energy Departs the Area
 The long heralded 'Day' (which one?) has arrived. That Day would be stronger winds aloft coupled with some colder mid level temperatures combined with bulk shear of up to 50-60 kts (speed shear) and moderate surface based instability. However, as is oft the case, there are some complicating factors that would negate this potential storm activity but all in all the 'Potential' is too great to let it go by without mention. By what degree a better chance of the severe-strong storm type will be muffed is hard to good be to a high degree which would mean no strong storms at all..but for now will go with HRRR simulations implying consistently that some very small strong storms could go up east half of state (mainly) later today...but the locations have shifted around drastically with the hourly model runs. 

Main hazard appears would be strong winds to severe strength over 58 mph but hail is also possible from pea to one inch if not a bit more in a small isolated incident or two. But like the past few days, the down side to those chances is the antecedent cloud cover over the areas where upper level energy will more than likely be passing over negating their 'stormy consequences'. As I type a bolt of lightning just came down close by at 12:40 PM, but it is a very isolated and small storm.

TUESDAY Frontal boundary to sink south though rain chances remain for parts of Central at some odd time late tonight or early Tuesday. Temperatures just a bit cooler on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY Guidance is really tough on consistency in the overall synoptic scale with not too great of agreement on guidance regarding Wednesday and beyond, and has been bouncing around a lot. For now, suspect we could have more rain chances if not storms this period but when is another matter. (e.g., one model shows mostly rain chances occur either late at night or early mornings and being of the non-thunderstorm genre). For now, will let it hang until this day is over and the next one is as well.  

The same goes for the extended. There are time the GFS is implying severe weather re-emerges (or chances of it) by the weekend toward Monday..but it has been extremely inconsistent in its call.


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Sunday, April 19, 2015

Same Theme With Slightly Better Storm Chance (East Coast Late)

"Good Day, Sunday ..."
TODAY: Upper level winds at jet  stream and below are beginning to work in as advertised several days ago, but more so on Monday. As a result, sufficient bulk shear, some directional shear, and instability all adequate to support  strong to severe storms; but as usual, the caveats : Dry layer in the mid levels aloft  might not be able to be overcome in the absence of sufficient surface boundaries other than the east coast sea breeze combined with the west coast sea breeze collision far east side of state east of the Florida  Turnpike (except south Florida) and approaching high level cloud cover.  

Warm again though today away from the east. One difference though for today already at play from yesterday is the east coast sea breeze has already set in as of noon which was several hours earlier than yesterday but how far inland it will work is debatable.  This might help activity pop in more locations up and down the east coast than yesterday though that dry layer is might deep at time. Se Breeze might get as far as between US1 to I-95 by late afternoon and then the next caveat at play enters the picture. More late afternoon high 'blouses' aloft on the way once again (and even before that time as well). See image below

This Hi Resolution Infrared Image shows cold cloud tops in Red but you can see the milky white thin clouds heading toward most of the state within the next 2 hours. ..right during peak heating. OOPS
Other than the chance of storms, though very isolated (like last night toward Vero Beach mainly) but perhaps a bit more numerous today (would watch especially Brevard and Indian River Counties), it will be like yesterday in other locations... . The activity shown in the image above over the Gulf though moving ENE is expected to fall apart prior to landfall, but if it doesn't than all the models were off, so it will be interesting to see what transpires. There is currently a tornado watch in place over the panhandle but no warnings at time of posting nor were any strong storms seen on radar either. 

"Everything Under The Sun Except storms. I'm  telling ya..."  
MONDAY Another day almost like today but with an even greater chance of severe storms but with the same caveats at almost the same timing per latest NAM at least. Another disturbance nicely timed to roll across or near the Panhandle earlier in the day..rain chance might be higher tomorrow though regardless of the's just a matter of if it will be storms or mostly rains

TUESDAY Boundary sinks toward Central Florida and best rain chances appear will be over South Central and South Florida, but strong storms not anticipated at time.

WEDNESDAY  might be a break for the most part

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Shifting patterns put swinging forecasts and models on the run trying to keep up with active southern branch jet pattern at hand. One day down with return to southerly flow as frontal boundary lifts back north and washes out in the approach of another trough. Could be active again at least one day next week beginning on Thursday

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Saturday, April 18, 2015

Very Warm , Isolated Robust Storms Moving Offshore East Coast "Possible"

"Walking on Sunshine" ~  (Until later today)

TODAY: Very warm day if cloud cover from the Gulf holds off. Like the past several days timing is everything, and amazingly every morning for three days there has been activity in the Northern Gulf associated with a disturbance near or south of Pensacola rolling east. Cloud cover from them has been squelching afternoon storm activity even though we still have had some storms regardless. Today looks no different but there are some minor differences , mainly in the timing.

Chance higher cloud cover will not be as much as a negating factor today, and that is the crux or premise upon which this 'worst case' or stormiest scenario is painted upon. Outside of this assumption, conditions could end up being much more calm than noted in the graphic (see text) and temperatures this afternoon would also not be as warm (if the high clouds stream in prior to 2-4pm). The RAP and the NAM though are showing lower 90Fs today in the interior. Sea breezes shouldn't make it that far inland today so it will be the storm rolling off the coast in the presence of moderate to strong CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and lower EHI (energy helicity  along the coast due to sea breeze) that would the heads up (note beach goers), particularly if they hold off until late as the west coast sea breeze works across. 

Storms or rain showers (even small ones) can stabilize the area they occur and any where up to 20 miles or more around them after they collapse and send out some rain cooled air. If this occurs earlier in the day (before 2-3pm), the chance of late day storm in or near that location can be greatly diminished. It'll all come down to timing 
plus .....

** any well developed storm moving off   the Central east coast could become very strong to even severe if timing is just right. There might be some lingering rain or recompiling storms over Central to South Central after dark . Strong storms possible panhandle region late with early activity there as well

BEYOND: Sunday looks to be another day of rain chances also some potentially strong but the situation will be entirely different synoptically speaking as Jet Stream winds from the Southern Branch Jet around the base of an upper level trough which is moving east toward the state (though north of it) will be sweeping over head. Today looks more to be a case of isolated by possibly strong to very strong storms..tomorrow more wide spread but strength will be determined by precedent cloud cover; if too much clouds, might only be rain despite the presence of stronger winds aloft.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Last day of rain chances will be either Monday or Tuesday before a break of 2 -3 days. Next weekend sometime into next Monday could be very active but way too far out in time for other than a passing glance.


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Friday, April 17, 2015

Chances of Some Storms Again Today - Weekend

TODAY: Boundary that was in place yesterday has moved little and never did fully wash out. As a result, rain chances today will be in close to the same places (in general) as   yesterday with little change in the upper level pattern other than some slightly stronger winds aloft.  

However, as was the case yesterday as well, though a disturbance in the upper levels is pointed out (vorticity) by the models to approach North Central later today, it is accompanied by extensive cloud cover. Cloud cover does not bode well for surface based instability which would require a good degree of sunshine for heating in the low levels (to form thunderstorms). Regardless, based on satellite imagery trends will call for 'worst case' scenario (perhaps) and go with the graphic below indicating a potentially strong storm or two later today toward the east coast mainly if and only if the east coast sea breeze gets a boost. As of noon there is little sea breeze to speak of but it could pick up in the next two hours. Ample moisture and instability already in place means as soon as it even hints at picking up some showers could go  up just west of the coast or near it.  

Again, like the past two days, localized urban flooding might become an issue for those areas that have already received several inches and do not drain off very well...such as Osceola or parts of Orange or Seminole Counties.

The chance for Red Zone Storms (Stronger) is 'Conditional" and really not very likely
without some good sunshine. The best region for that would be more like Southeast Florida

WEEKEND -: Slightly better chance of showers or a storm or two nearer the East Coast on Saturday than previous models indicated. Reason being the short-wave ridge isn't showing to have as much of a sedating influence (sinking air) as was surmised yesterday with as much as buckle in the flow, but that could always change. Overall, still a chance of something happening near the east coast mainly on  Saturday until later model runs suggest otherwise.

 THROUGH -  MAYBE TUESDAY (?): Wild card Stud.  Could be some strong storms any of these days but as the last few days have indicated, it's a play it day by day situation since disturbances aloft are impossible to time this far out and there are too many other mitigating factors involved such us precedent cloud cover which might be in place any of these days playing the switch bait.

"Wild Card Stud" ~ Whoever Has the Bait  Gets  the Storm 

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Thursday, April 16, 2015

'Potentially' Active Day (by April Standards) at Hand

" Gimme   Higher  Ground "
TODAY   Fairly active rain day yesterday over and north of I-4 mainly and toward the east coast as the anticipated disturbance 'noted' in the blog post crossed that region. It appears it might have provided the impetus for   weak surface low development well south southeast of the Georgia coast with a trailing 'frontal like' boundary across Central Florida. One model indicates that boundary to lay across South Central at the surface but just above ground to be across Central Direct. Not sure it will as active north of I-4 today as it was yesterday toward the East Coast such as over Flagler and Northern Volusia, but further south toward Brevard (interior mainly) and south around the Lake Okeechobee region such as near Ft pierce within 30 miles and across the state (as shown below) might be more active. 

If activity gets an earlier start as some guidance shows, stronger storms might occur over South Central later in the day as a result of outflow boundaries from further north as a result of rain cooled air, but interior Central regions might also see a stronger storm or two briefly. The bigger 'hazard' today looks like it could be localized ponding or small scale flooding in rural areas as Volusia, Seminole, parts of Volusia, and Polk Counties (at least) have seen some good rainfall over the past few days (outside of the lightning hazard ritual).

Expect that we might see a concentrated area of  rain area  today as well (esp. after dark) in the storm decay phase, but exactly where and if so is hard to say, but Central o South Central looks the most likely at this point.

FRIDAY  looks to be another active day, but of a totally different character as the surface boundaries will have dissipated with  a   SW steering flow taking hold for activity to migrate toward the east coast  .  This will mostly be noticed therefore by beach side east coasters beach   where rain chances might be greater there on this day in some locations

(As noted several posts ago, upper level Southern Branch Jet Stream winds will be coming into play, slightly ever so much perhaps later today even which if so could keep activity going for a while tonight. Otherwise, they might be more in play tomorrow for INITIATION time as opposed to dissipation time (today - Thursday). )

BEYOND  Won't elaborate at this point , but rain chances remain through the weekend though Saturday looks to be a much slower day as short-wave ridging ripples past. Continues to appear now that Monday or Tuesday might be the last hooray, but only for perhaps 3 days when rain chances again to emerge on the threshold,  knocking. Sunday also looks like an active day.

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Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Amalgamous April Continues - Better Chance of Storms Today (Mainly North)

TODAY: After yesterday's overall 'lull' in the action (though there was some), it appears that today has a slightly better chances at more rain coverage today over Central to Eastern Florida . Though there was some activity yesterday it was comparatively sparse to previous days. Guidance is showing it to be dry at time over all of the South Half of the state, and not sure this region will recover at all, but for perhaps this evening (if at all) though some models are breaking out rains down that way.  For now, given the consensus of what would appear to be 'low chances' South Florida will throw in a few showers/storms regardless. The best chance being along the Lake/Ocean Breeze Conflict Zone near Ft Pierce up toward nearly Vero Beach.

Otherwise, at time much of Central rests in the wake of a weak disturbance that passed overhead early this morning. There is another on the way, so timing is most everything today. 

The zone to be watched as of the noon time area shows around Volusia and Flagler County, but North Brevard could get in the act as well, especially after 5 or 6 pm toward 8pm. Some guidance implies linger rains if not even thunder as late as 11 pm tonight over parts of Central of not Eastern South Central, so we'll see.

BEYOND: Models continue to vary on how long this Amalgomous April Blend of wet season like weather meets the 'Dry Season' will continue. 

Will it be over as soon as Saturday or last into Monday (at least)?  Time will tell. For now will shoot for at least into Sunday decreasing from North to south on Monday.  A lull of a few days at least is foreseen before perhaps a repeat begins again later next week though.

Day to day  forecasts a different matter. Much will depend on the passage of upper level disturbances and the timing that they do pass over combined with sea breeze convergences.  If a disturbance passes over at the wrong time, it could actually 'dampen' (bad choice of words) the rain chances in the afternoon during prime time despite other favorable conditions due to subsidence (sinking) air that is left in their wake that would put down the kibosh to what would otherwise have been a better rain chance (put an end to; dispose of decisively) . .

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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Atypical April To Continue Very Warm with Rain Chances Into the Weekend

April Towers Bring  Spring Flowers
TODAY: For the blog today, big wagering guess at hand.  Most models earlier this morning in the short term showed near NO RAIN at all nearly statewide today (HRRR and RAP e.g.) with the NAM not far behind, whereas the Global Forecast System (GFS) model breaks out 'rain abundance' Central Florida later today. Not much has changed either in subsequent model runs. Instability not runny quite as high today  and steering currents are lower than yesterday. Most of the discrepancies might be coming from whether High pressure to the south will build too far north with rising 500 mb heights for if that does occur our Prime Storm Time might be snuffed out entirely. But if not, then it's all gang  - bangers once again. Suspect today might play the wild card out though, so would not be surprised to see lower coverage today, if not significantly so. But to favor consistency regardless in the wake of yesterday's active shortwave.

 If nothing more, it will be interesting to see which model fares best..the short range guidance as of 11AM or the Long Range GFS model of 8AM this morning:

Best Guess for now. South Florida date coming in is shows drying in progress which would imply 'no or few storms' and north Florida per the short term Mesoscale/RAP shows a deficient in favorable storm conditions , esp. NE Florida . This leaves Central until sea breezes kick in, then everything will change anyway in that area as well. GFS also shows the highest rainfall total by late tonight to be East Brevard County which would be most interesting if so, as right now that looks to be highly unlikely. We can see how models fared today is the gist of it
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Not going to venture too far out into the Deep End as it appears an upper level disturbance or more than one might be approaching the region for these days. Timing , location, and cloud coverage on those days will determine a lot of factors as far as what is experienced locally from benign to quite active. In the end, rain 'chances' (emphasis) remain but that's where it begins and ends for now as far as the blog post is concerned.

BEYOND: Warm temperatures continue with higher than normal rain chances which is not necessarily saying all that much since this time of year is normally in the dry season.

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Monday, April 13, 2015

"Heavy' Thunderstorms Again Possible Today Especially North Central/East Half

Sunday Morning ( Cape Canaveral)
TODAY: As of 6AM appears another active thunderstorm/rain shower day at hand. Even at this early hour morning temperatures and instability are running a bit above the norm near the east coast in some locations. (not that temperatures and these recent rains are not already well out of the norm). An upper level 'disturbance' is noted on satellite imagery much as was the case two days ago in almost the same location as well at the time of day (noted in image below).

Moderate instability (CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy) , little to no capping, and cooler air aloft in the midst of upper level energy (vorticity) along with lake and sea breeze interactions (sounds almost like summer, unusually so for this time of year) in the midst of ample atmospheric moisture content (PWAT, precipitable water) should be the needing ingredients. Steering should favor interior and eastern sides (especially north of SR 60) for late day activity that might be stronger.

 Earlier in the day we could see some showers or 'weaker thunder' form as the east coast sea breezes begins its frontal march toward the west. It will be late day though as the west meets east in combination of other pre-existing boundaries that the spurious  'Pop  Drop Plop"  storms will provide the impetus for possibly stronger wind gusts and/or small hail. Storm activity could roll off the east coast mainly north of Cape Canaveral but boundary interactions could still result in 'decent thunder' further south as well (especially late).

Might have to watch for  a 'concentrated fizzle faze area' of light to moderate rain perhaps in the Volusia toward Osceola Count/Seminole Counties toward and/or after dark (which might result in localized urban 'flooding').

BEYOND: Again as noted before, it is tempting to call each day as it looks from overnight guidance, but there are too many mitigating factors at play to go beyond each day as it comes. For example, Tuesday looks to be much drier for the state overall in the wake off today's S/W (short-wave) but guidance is favoring 'north half-east side" from mainly Melbourne and North late day. So we can see if that holds true yet still tomorrow.

Rain chances/storms still possible through the weekend, as noted previously, with additions to the variables involved heading toward Thursday as stronger Southern Jet Stream winds being to enter the picture increasing upper level divergence and/or shear.

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Sunday, April 12, 2015

Rain/Thunder Chances to Prevail through Next Weekend

Leading Arcus From a Thunderstorm's Leading Gust Front Leading Outflow ~ Cape Canaveral Saturday

"Severe thunderstorm Warning"

TODAY: More moisture today but with a slight change in the wind fields will mean more storm coverage but in different places at different times today. East coast sea breeze inland penetration should be rather deep today so stronger storms along the west coast/east coast sea breeze union might occur a bit further west today than yesterday with very little steering back to the east.

Regardless, many east coast locations might 'cloud over' early this evening due to anvil storm debris (cirrus) clouds caught up in the upper levels westerlies (from west to east). A few stronger storms possible mainly near to west of Orlando and east of I-75 or near it with small hail and stronger wind gusts. For now, disregarding the formation in the Gulf as shown below.

There is a chance though that east coasters could see rain again (as some locations did last night) well after dark toward midnight (even) once the sea breeze along the east coast retreats though only light or moderate rain would be the call it seems now if at all.

Land Surfing the Storm

BEYOND: Daily Basis is the best guess for time/locations of rains. Only factor that changes much as given now is the steering flow which might become more from west toward the east by around Thursday, otherwise predominately it will be regions 15 miles and more from any coast that will have the better late day storm chances.  Another factor might be indiscriminate upper level impulses that guidance isn't fully latching on to that could boost rain chances at seemingly odd times of the day or night. (or induce more cloud cover). Otherwise, temperatures continue to run well above the norm for this time of year (especially the morning lows) coupled with better than the average rain chance during what is usually a relatively dry time of year.

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Saturday, April 11, 2015

Long Wave Pattern Change in Progress - Rain/Thunderstorms Today

TODAY: Anticipated (for those monitoring) changes in the upper atmospheric pattern slowly emerging -- manifesting at the lower levels as a cold front that cuts across the Deep South and drops into North Florida later today. An upper trough near the Southern California coast and resulting upper Southern Branch Jet Streak is expected in some form or another to approach Florida toward the latter parts of next week slowly but surely to increase the winds aloft. The GFS has been advertising this pattern change for several days now (with much inconsistency, however, and as a result a variety of solutions).

Meanwhile, some colder air aloft with deeper south to southwest flow in the surface to mid levels will give the needed atmospheric moisture boost combined with moderate instability in the 1500-2500 (at least) CAPE range  for a better chance of thunder today. The only real fly in the ointment at this time is the potential for precedent cloud cover to overtake the area though so far no model guidance shows that will be the case (or at least, a factor) at this hour.

Though thunder is possible over a fairly large area, will watch toward the Central-East Side
 and also south of Lake Okeechobee (not shown). Will see how clouds to the west moving east affect (or not) instability later in the morning toward early afternoon

There is a small chance of some stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze boundary just west of the immediate coast toward the interior regions but closer to the coast in the Central/Southern Volusia to Far North Brevard region. The predominant mode appears now will be rain showers but again, some thunderstorms, possibly a bit strong are also possible later in the day as the west coast sea breeze works across to the east coast sea breeze marriage more than 1/2 way across the state (favoring the east half of the state especially from Southern Volusia South to West Central Dade County) 

Cape Canaveral Peacocks Strut Along "The Path"

SUNDAY: The frontal boundary will be phased out and absorbed by high pressure passing well to the north of the state. Sunday might see a decrease in activity as a result mostly favoring the interior and west side, though showers could still impact any area of the east coast at almost any time as it appears the moisture overall isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Cloud cover in varying degrees throughout the day and evening.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Day by day for now until guidance gets better aligned. There are hints that Tuesday could be a rather active day as low level winds become variable at times (allowing for sea breeze and lake boundaries to act) but SW to NE steering increases. Overall..steering remains from west to east though only at about 10 mph or less (slow). Sea breeze convergence activity is the best bet. GFS shows rain chances across various portions of the state into next Saturday though that could change but only be degrees of overall coverage. Just exactly where though will be determined daily.  Meanwhile, the aforementioned Southern Branch Jet Stream winds could come into play by Friday or Thursday which would mean better opportunities for stronger storms once again for a day or so (perhaps).

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Thursday, April 2, 2015

Chance of Isolated Inland Showers - Strong Storm or Two Late (North Central Mainly)

"If a Plains Tornado Hit Brevard (It Might Look like this controlled burn smoke)"
TODAY: A 'back-door frontal boundary appears to have ground to a halt across Central Florida. last night lightning was visible off shore along the boundary and the showers remain in close contact with it even right up to this time of 6:30AM. 

The boundary should be washing out today but leave an area of slightly enhanced atmospheric moisture across the vicinity of its skeletal demise. That, coupled with what appears could be enough surface heating (despite some clouds to come across today) along with sea breeze boundaries,  would be enough to set off some showers perhaps and a thunderstorm or two later. 

Any storm that can get going (if so) over land prior to nightfall could hedge toward the strong side as the temperatures aloft are very cold. Looks like a typical 'early convective season' type set up, though conditions could be more favorable. Temperatures will continue to be warm, a bit like yesterday but cooler along the immediate coasts.

GOOD FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Both days look dry and warm as another back door front slides in after dark on Saturday. The GFS is showing some breezy winds for Easter (Sunday) morning along the east coast with perhaps even a light sprinkle or perhaps only some cloud coverage. The latest NAM says it will never make it as far south as Central Florida though; for now will ride with the very consistent GFS model which brings the front through followed by a breezy, cooler, and 'potentially' a bit of a cloudy day near the east coast at times. 

Controlled Burn on Radar (Smoke Moving Off Shore)

EASTER SUNDAY: Per GFS, this would be the coolest temperature'd day of the upcoming week, assuming the boundary does indeed slide by. Nothing cold though: lows in the 60Fs, highs in the 70Fs and maybe cloud coverage. Overall, not 'ideal conditions' for beach side Sunrise Services (unless the NAM verifies) due to it being 'breezy'.

NEXT WEEK: Wind shifting from ENE-E to SE to South  Sunday - Tuesday that from that day through Friday -  warm with little chance of showers or storms indicated at this point. No cold air intrusions are even being implied at all by the long range GFS beyond even Day 10. We might be 'out of the woods' at last from Winter's ICY GRIP. 

"'s 57F Out and Not Sure I want to get my feet wet"

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