"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Stronger Storms 'Could Occur" TodayMainly South of I-4


TODAY Brief post due to time limitations. Appears a developing situation in progress could at least bear watching in regard to some isolated stronger storms mainly toward the East Coast as shown in image below, not to totally count out other locations as well.

Forecast soundings over East Central show cold upper level temperatures (500mb near -10C, 700mb near 6C) and plenty of Effective Shear mainly attributed to bulk shear from the surface through the 500mb layer (which is near 20,000 feet). 

The same forecast sounding shows Jet Stream wind exceeding 100 kts   all coming together with light-moderate CAPE (instability) south of I-4 to along it from Orlando to Tampa. The stronger storms, if so synoptically  speaking 'would' occur near the east coast where low level convergence and helicity would be maximized locally due to the chance of an east coast sea breeze developing but remaining close to the coast.

Most of this all depends though on

1. moisture working far enough north at the low levels; and - 

2. clearing with plenty of afternoon heating which the RAP model is consistently indicating, at leas in regard to the temperatures. and - 

3. the indication that a mid-level (mainly 700mb) trough will cross the north half of the state, now being analyzed over Louisiana.  

Thus, the chance of strong storms anywhere is rather 'conditional' on at least these factors all coming together. Otherwise, some more generic storms might only occur or also mainly occur further south, though the 'further south only' option seems to be going out the storms might even be able to occur further north than shown below though not yet indicated on short range guidance.

Latest satellite animations show that though there are plenty of clouds now, they might be clearing out later this morning based on extrapolation of the current cloud motions

FRIDAY: This day looks very quiet and very warm, with near Record high temperatures as we head into Saturday.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Very warm with westerly wind. Guidance is inconsistent on the rain chances, but both days do have a potential for some showers or storms (isolated) but will tackle that hurdle when we come to it due to the broad range of model discrepancies. At least one more short wave ridge if not to will pass over the area on Friday and again perhaps on Monday, those being low rain chance to no chance days as it stands now.

BEYOND: There is a chance that on Tuesday and/or Wednesday a look toward Severe Weather could occur, but again, we run into the same issue as noted above. Fast moving disturbances in the southern just stream flow make timing nearly impossible for them to approach Florida this far out in time. And after that time, we might see a big cool down from what we've experienced for most of the month and a longer, dry out period as well.

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