"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Stellar Day For The Races at Daytona - U.S. Pattern Change

Images: (1) First visible satellite image of the day shows the overall coverage of the most dense fog early this morning. Almost completely gone at 10:10am (as I type). What remains of the boundary mentioned yesterday is in part the case of the fog for mesoscale reasons beyond the scope of simple blog post. The lime green colors show where some very weak low topped showers existed at the time. One or two might have made it on shore, but quickly eroded after landfall. (2) Again shows the more overall coverage of fog (within the yellow). We see there was more fog than satellite showed, due to the fact it was less dense (very thin) and very shallow. We see a bubble high near Tampa which is drawn to depict where a High Pressure is center when averaging out all the winds from the surface to 700mb. There isn't actually a surface high there. I've annotated a ridge axis extending north from the high for the reason shown in the fourth image (3) Indeed, the KSC sounding shows the shallow inversion was only at about 500 ft or less, with a secondary inversion around 4000 ft shown by the lime green line; and finally (4) forecast for 9am this Sunday morning shows the actual extent of the surface high up the East Side of the U.S. into Southern Canada, with what remained of the boundary over the East side of Florida, which will wash out after noon. We also see a low pressure system over SE Nebraska. The harbinger of things to come going into later in the week through the remainder of the month (see last paragraph).

Below are some surface observations recorded over East Central Florida where the most dense fog existed. We see observations down to 1/16 of a mile in Brevard County right in the ashes of the dead boundry:

ORMOND BEACH FOG 54 54 100 CALM 30.17 VSB 1/4
DAYTONA BEACH FOG 54 54 100 NW5 30.17R VSB 3/4
JFK SPACE CTR FOG 61 61 100 NW1 30.15R VSB 1/16
TITUSVILLE FOG 55 54 94 VRB3 30.15 VSB 1/16
CAPE CANAVERAL FOG 60 60 99 NW3 30.14R VSB 1/4
PATRICK AFB FOG 60 60 99 NW5 30.15R VSB 1/4
MELBOURNE FOG 58 55 90 CALM 30.15R VSB 1/16
VERO BEACH FOG 57 57 100 NW3 30.15R VSB 1/4
FT PIERCE FOG 56 56 100 W3 30.14R VSB 1/4

TODAY: Fog is burning off now, and will gone by the time this post is completed. The high pressure ridge axis shown in the 4th image above will traverse across the state today. Net affect will be conditions similar to yesterday by all appearances, although the overall synoptic situation will be a bit different. East coast sea breeze will again set up this afternoon with coastal temperatures along and east of A1A north of Sebastian Inlet in the lower 70s, mid-upper 70s the further one gets from the coast and south of Sebastian. Warmest on the west side of the state with a few low 80s here or there, although some locations may still get a sea breeze there within the closest 1/2 mile to the Gulf due to the fact that pressure gradient flow might not be strong enough to over come the thermal gradient created as the interior warms. Could be a bit hazy today with the ridge over head at 4000 ft. (shown in the above image) most of the day with high dew point air at the surface. Most clouds at least through early afternoon will be over Eastern 1/4 of South Central Florida into Palm Beach County.

Looks like it will be about 74-77F degrees today under clear skies with a light ENE wind around 10mph at the race tracks today. They're gonna "Zoom Zoom, zoom a zoom" (as the old PBS children's show sang).

Only change in the overall weather today will occur near sunset as winds at the coast become more ESE to SE after dark as the ridge shifts east and into the Atlantic, but remain under 15mph under clearing skies. Only locations that might see some breezes stronger than 10mph will be near I-95 where greater mixing of warm inland temperatures and the sea breeze will exist

TONIGHT/TOMORROW/TUESDAY: High pressure continues east and shifts the averaged locations south (from the position shown near Tampa this morning) south. By Tuesday it will be closer toward the Eastern Bahamas. Winds veer toward more of a southerly direction over night, keeping A1A temperatures in the low 60s overnight with upper 50s inland under clear skies. Might be some patches of morning ground fog inland, but not expecting it nearly as extensive as was realized this morning

PRESIDENT'S DAY NOON-TUESDAY EVENING: Winds become more assuredly SSW veering to W on Tuesday. Overnight lows begin to warm inland toward 60F. Afternoon highs along A1A finally reach 80F-83F degrees in the absence of the sea breeze with some areas near the North side of the Big Lake toward South Brevard maybe seeing a mid-80F reading with a spine of similar spotty readings up to Jacksonville near to just east of I-95 of similar nature. A cold front will be sinking south into North Florida during this time frame and settle into Central Florida overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The immediate Gulf Coast side of all of Florida will be the coolest in the afternoons due to a Gulf Breeze in this SSW-W flow from west of Punta Gorda to Apalachicola.

WEDNESDAY: Front relaxes over Central Florida and begins to undergo frontolysis. Could be another morning of wide spread fog Wednesday morning as surface winds should greatly diminish by later Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday within the bounds of the decaying boundary. Skies partly cloudy but not expecting any showers. Any showers with the front will be confined to Northern Portions of the state. Overnight clouds might hinder fog formation altogether, but this will need to be watched for the early morning road bound folks.

THURSDAY: Repeat of the cycle experienced yesterday (or similar to it). Boundary washes out and withdrawals its remnants into a brief appearance as a coastal trough, light on shore winds near the coast will bring down A1A temperatures to those that we are all familiar with by now up and down the east coast Thursday afternoon. Winds begin to gain a more southerly component overnight Thursday into Friday. About the only other notable change nearly state wide going from Wednesday and beyond is warmer overnight lows inland (at or above 60F).

FRIDAY: Could be another warmer day with highs in the lower 80s once again most everywhere except the west coast. A cold front will be sinking through the state later Friday into Saturday which currently appears will wash out in similar fashion on Saturday in similar fashion to the one on Wednesday, but just how far south this one will be able to penetrate is a 'hung jury', but it looks like this one will get further south.

THE PATTERN CHANGE: In the broad scheme of things concerning the U.S., a more zonal flow will be setting up with storms tracking across north and Central portions of the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic region for quite some time to come, whereas high pressure protects Central and South Florida for the most part throughout the duration into the first week of March.

>Of interest will be that this establishing weather pattern will first become apparent beginning late Wednesday and beyond (although it actually began yesterday and is ongoing near the drawn low pressure in the image above) as storm systems begin to affect NE Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Northern Mississippi and Louisiana, and skirt through the north 1/2 of Georgia, through Tennessee and Kentucky, and reach the east coast most notably in South/North Carolina and the Virginias. We will be hearing about tornado prone areas during this time frame, with each consecutive storm track getting further east and south with greater intensity...eventually brushing the Panhandle and the I-10 corridor in the process with at least better chances of rain. Looking more and more like Central and South Florida are more fully entrained in a 'dry season' regime for quite some time to come. Not good, considering the worst of it is usually not until April.

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